Dave Wasserman
speaker
90 appearances
2 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard 10 Jun
Dave Wasserman’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.
Appearances
I think when there is a competitive primary for a safe seat, which is really the scenario that generates most new members of Congress, you almost have to have a soft dollar component in addition to the hard campaign dollars, right? Because when you're trying to break through in a crowded field, unless you're a are injecting personal wealth.
You've got to have wealthy outside allies or friends to be able to maintain pace. I think it's very, very rare to see a shoe leather campaign that's raising money in hard dollar limited increments end up succeeding on that alone these days.
Yeah. You know, most of the overwhelming share is spent on TV, but I have seen mailers in particular that resemble them. I think DMFI engaged in some of that in Democratic primaries.
Got it. Yeah. Die demokratische Mehrheit für Israel. Ja, die demokratische Mehrheit für Israel, danke. Genau. Du hast auch American Bridge gesehen, das ist ein großer Super-Pack, der ein paar Pfeilchen schreibt, die aus den lokalen Zeitungen aussehen, um in 2024 Städte zu beeinflussen. Aber ja, es ist eine Trendlinie, die die Linien weiter verweigert.
Well, in terms of the PVI range of, let's take R plus 5 to D plus 5, it bottomed out at 71 seats after Trump was elected. That was down 57% from 164 in 1999. We've rebounded a bit to 87 because we've had a number of of Hispanic majority districts and kind of, you know, in that 50 to 70 percent white range of districts that have become less solidly blue.
That's not to say that we've had this big resurgence in Now, the other component of that is that there are some previously R-plus-5 or more suburbs that are now in that strike zone. And Democrats have flipped a lot of those in 2018 and have maintained control of them. And the big trade in the Trump era is...
He's alienated college whites in exchange for winning a larger share of working class non-whites. And I think that's been a good trade for his ability to win the popular vote. A good trade in presidential elections. In presidential elections. Yeah.
What about for House races and midterms? The latter group tends to be concentrated in those urban non-competitive seats, right? Or at least they're not competitive yet. They're still a long ways. AOC's district was near the top of the list. Richie Torres' district was near the top of the list.
Right. Now, you know, New Jersey 9, Bill Pascrell's old seat, which flipped to Trump, Sayek, New Jersey and Patterson, New Jersey. Now that's a seat that Democrats do have to be concerned about in the long run. Whereas Mikey Sherrill's district, which borders it, which used to be, you know, solidly Republican, Rodney Frelinghuysen. Now that's a safe Democratic seat.
So that's kind of my home state illustration of how this model has flipped. Das hat ein Szenario erzeugt, in dem die medienhafte Sitzung jetzt noch näher ist als jemals, seitdem wir die PVI in den 90er-Jahren gestartet haben. Die Redistriktionsvorsorge der Republikaner hat sich in den 2010er-Jahren gesteigert und 2017
After Trump was first elected, the median House, if you ranked ordered all of them from one to 435, was R plus three. So three points to the right of the nation as a whole. Today, it's R plus 0.6. And that median district is California 22, held by David Valadao.
But that just illustrates how much less skewed the House map is than it used to be, owing not really to changes in redistricting, but rather the changes in the party coalitions.
Ja, es gibt eine Bifurkation zwischen den Sitzungen, die von den Republikanern geführt wurden, das sind ca. 41% der Sitzungen, aber sie zählen nur auf 21% der Städte. Und dann die Sitzungen, die von den Gerichten und Kommissionen geführt wurden. Wir hatten eine große Explosion in der Zahl der Sitzungen, die von Gerichten und Kommissionen geführt wurden, in der letzten Runde.
Es war nicht nur Kalifornien, die es schon lange gehalten hat. It also was Michigan and Colorado and Pennsylvania. And keep in mind, you know, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
It's supposed to be, not really. It's kind of somewhere in between, right? Democrats have done pretty well on the Ohio map as it is, but that's one place where the lines could change prior to 26.
But a measure to try and double down on that reform failed last cycle because Republicans who control the state ballot board, they twisted the language to make it seem as if the amendment was the opposite of what it was intending to do. So, yeah, it is kind of a situation of capture. But the...
Only reason we have Speaker Mike Johnson is because Republicans re-gerrymandered the lines in North Carolina last cycle. And now Republicans are, and that gave them three seats, which ended up being the decisive margin.
Well, that's true, too, if you go back to... Well, when it's that narrow, right?
Yeah, everyone can take credit. But you know what's interesting about how the conversation has changed the last couple of years? For the last decade plus, it was primarily Democrats who were complaining about egregious Republican gerrymandering. What I noticed after...
2024, when Democrats bucked the presidential trend and picked up a couple of House seats, most of my mentions were Republicans complaining about redistricting and California gerrymandering the lines. Look, California's got a commission. I think that Democrats were able to game a little bit, but complaining about the lines in Illinois and New Mexico and Oregon.
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