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Chapter 1: What are the initial thoughts on the current market environment?
I yelled at the guy at the bakery today downstairs.
Here?
Yeah. I'm in there every week on Thursday. I have no time for lunch. So I get a stupid blueberry muffin and a black coffee to wake up. They ring me up. They have no blueberry muffins. Okay, fine. What do you have? Lemon poppy. Of course you do. Who wants lemon poppy? Who would buy that? Fine. I don't care. I get upstairs. I realize the coffee is ice cold.
undre like undrinkably cold i see microwave it i emailed i never do this i email a guy i'm like yes he does no i don't here's no i don't i just let it go i'll just never go back i'll never go back but i'm like what do you want what do you want to do here you know what i mean like well i'm in there every week who are you emailing the owner i found the owner i found the owner's email i was telling i was telling josh i was speaking an hour ago about how i'm trying to be nicer let me
Just in life, just generally speaking, you know, like just give people some grace.
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Chapter 2: How crowded has the AI investment trade become?
In this economy? And not assume the worst always. It feels good to be nice. Trying to be nice and Josh is going the other way. So. The gloves are off, Brian. But Brian, it's hard because last night, for example, I was at the Knicks game.
So jealous, by the way.
Well, I left. This is my redemption. I left game one of the Cavs series when we were down 22. No, you didn't. I did. Okay. I did. And last night, and listen, I think that people are trying to be nice. They're trying to, like, be in on the action. It's fun. Like, oh, Michael's at the game. I know he's a big Knicks fan. Are you at the game?
But, like, I had a few people text me, like, acquaintances. Are you at the game? This is when we were down 25. Are you at the game?
Chapter 3: Why is earnings growth still supportive of the market?
Yes. Yikes. Yikes. Dude. Right. Like, why would you do that? I don't feel bad enough already. Why would you say that to me?
Right. So, anyway, I appreciate all— What do you think they think the reaction's going to be? I don't know. I think— I don't think anyone wants that text.
No, I don't think that they're thinking that, oh, like, maybe, like, Michael is a genuinely diehard. He's probably not having a great time right now. And or the people that are texting you, like, during the game are probably not thinking, like— Maybe just let him enjoy the game. His phone is probably blowing up. So I do, it's nice. Like people are trying to be nice. So I do appreciate that.
They're trying to connect with somebody at the game. So I'm trying to not be like, you know, be nice. But I really appreciate all the people that didn't text me. Right. Right.
Chapter 4: What should investors watch for signs of trouble?
That just like let me be. Yeah. Don't, don't contact me. I'm miserable. Anyway. So last night was, it was like my wedding night.
Best night.
In the sense that it was, no, let me, let me, let me go on. So nothing happened? It was, it was just a euphoric blur. that I woke up and I was like, what the, like, so I need to record the game. I recorded the game. I'm going to watch it when I get home tonight, the fourth quarter, because it happened so fast. And in the moment, I just completely, it was an out-of-body experience.
Of course, of course. I was just doing math the whole night, right? Like, how much are we down? How much, how did we get there?
So here's what happened. I heard Wilbon say this this morning. And I was like, because literally, how did that happen, right? They were up 29 points. How did they blow the lead? They hit eight field goals in the second half. That's how it happened.
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Chapter 5: How do small caps fit into the current market narrative?
No, here's how it happened. Specifically, they took 12 threes in the second half with more than 10 seconds on the shot clock, which is coaching malpractice. You're on 20 points. You cannot take threes with 10 plus seconds on the shot clock. And they made one of those shots.
One of those shots. And the Aaron Fox went for the layoff with 11 seconds. It's malpractice.
Boner of the decade. What's weird is that they're not a poorly coached team. Like, the Spurs are not—up until what we saw last night, I wouldn't say that they're expertly coached, but that's like a very weird series of things that most teams would never do.
I think they were trying to step on the throat. They went for it. Right, they went for it. They weren't resting Wemby, just step on the throat, let's get this done and get on to game five.
And they missed a lot of open shots. They did. Well, they were lights out in the first half. They played every minute of the game except for one minute. They rested them one minute. Right. You could tell by the end.
They were missing open shots, so they were good looks. But the other thing is, and I didn't re-watch the game yet, I think they only called one timeout in the fourth. Which is crazy.
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Chapter 6: What are the expectations regarding interest rates?
Like, how do you not stop the bleeding? Right, you've got to stop the momentum. Like, immediately. Immediately. Immediately. We hit another three, timeout. Josh Hart's three at the top of the key to put it down 15, I think. Timeout. And they did it once. It was inexplicable. Anyway, so Knicks fans are psychos. I was telling Brian.
So I got my tickets to OKC and San Antonio a month ago, just in case. Um, and so they ran out of direct flights. Now it's like the, the one or two stops to San Antonio. You go through Orlando, Atlanta, whatever. Then that gets sold out. Then people are flying into Austin. Um, Jonathan Boyard texted me this morning. He's going to Houston. I said, why are you going to Houston?
It's a three hour drive. Go to Austin. I said, dude, there's no flights. There's no flights to Austin.
Chapter 7: How does consumer strength affect market dynamics?
Yeah. Yeah. I would imagine that arena would be 30% Knicks fans. Mike was saying higher.
No, I said, no, last night. Oh, last night was 40%. Last night I saw that 40% of the sales on Tick Pick, or it was 37%, were from New Yorkers.
Excuse me, on what? Tick Pick. So I was at one of the Philly games. I would say 40% Knicks conservatively. Like my entire section was Knicks. People that live in Philadelphia that are originally from New York, people that came from New York, people that came from other places that are Knicks fans to Philadelphia. San Antonio is further than Philadelphia.
I honestly don't even think it's going to matter. It's not going to matter. And if you think Knicks fans or New Yorkers were insufferable before this, just wait.
Now, do they sell Timothy Chalamet front row seats? Probably not. I don't know. They put him back a row, right? Who are the San Antonio celebrities? Like Yosemite Sam? Like, I don't even know who the fuck would be in that front row.
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Chapter 8: What parallels can be drawn to the dot-com bubble?
This guy.
Honestly, like, I'm trying to— J.R. Ewing? No, Davy Crockett. Davy Crockett.
Like, literally, the Alamo. The Alamo, yeah. Last night, there was—I saw— Oh, Tim Duncan. There you go. No, he sits on top of Pop. I saw, and I was one of them, there was a lot of people crying. Like, it was— It's emotional. This morning, my wife is like, you're crying again? Again. Again. It's just—it was—it's a lot. It's a lot to process. Well, it's like his wedding night.
Yeah, yeah.
You cried on your wedding night, too, I've been told. I did. All right. Round of applause for Michael Baddick. His dreams are coming true right before our eyes. I'm a Knicks fan, but Michael is a Knicks fan. You're like almost you are a Knick. It's at that level. All right. Mr. Cole, get a good one of me this week. Wait, wait. Come back. Come back. Come back. That was a failed intro.
I don't think we've had that before. Let's be deliberate.
Let's be deliberate. That was a coaching malpractice. All right. Come on. I want to get a good picture. Because I'm always looking to the side, everyone always says. And you still are. Yeah. You're getting like these profile shots of me, like these Alfred Hitchcock-esque profile shots. I'm much better head on. Let's go. All right. Let's do the show. John, click it up. Let's go.
All right.
The Compounding Friends, episode 246. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Stop the clock. Here's a word from our sponsor. This message is brought to you by Fidelity Investments. When timing is everything, you need powerful tools and research that can meet you in the moment.
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