Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Republicans are quietly panicking about something that was never supposed to happen.
Chapter 2: What are the current issues in the Texas GOP primary?
Trump's Epstein problems are getting worse. We've got new reporting and withheld DOJ materials that raise real questions about what on earth is going on. And the political fallout is only getting started. We're also going to look into ICE quietly building up endless weapons supplies in warehouses. Why do they need it? And an ICE whistleblower, a former ICE agent.
Chapter 3: How does Dr. Oz view Trump's State of the Union address?
is alleging serious constitutional violations at Ice Academy, where the legal violations seem to be a feature, not a bug. We've also got a Fox News panel moment where MAGA talking points collapse in real time. Plus, we will hear from you in our Friday feedback segment. I'm so glad that you're here. Let's do a show today. The David Pakman Show David Pakman dot com.
There's a Republican primary for Texas Senate between current Senator John Cornyn and the attorney general, Ken Paxton. And that has turned into a full scale intra party war.
Chapter 4: What new revelations have emerged regarding Jeffrey Epstein?
You've got Cornyn backed by Senate leadership and national Republican money. Paxton is the MAGA favorite. He's aggressive and combative. you know, uninformed in a way that is very popular with the MAGA base. But he is being weighed down by years of corruption and investigations and impeachment drama and personal scandal.
Chapter 5: Why is ICE stockpiling weapons and what does it mean?
And listen to this. Republicans have already spent nearly 100 million dollars trying to stop Ken Paxton. The allies of Senator Cornyn have aired ads calling Paxton corrupt and unfit. And it hasn't knocked Paxton out. The polling shows Paxton leading or tied. heading into a likely runoff.
We've heard from Senate Majority Leader John Thune that if Paxton is the nominee, the seat could end up being lost by Republicans and going to Democrats, depending on who wins the Democratic primary.
Chapter 6: What allegations are being made about ICE training practices?
So that gets us now to the Democratic primary. State Representative James Tallarico and Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett are among those whose names are being tested in general election polling. Tallarico is a former teacher. He's got a big statewide profile. He's pretty competitive in early matchups.
You've then got Jasmine Crockett, a high profile House member known for really sharp questioning and hearings. And she is also polling OK in general election polls. But it does seem as though Tallarico right now is leading the primary. So internal Republican polling
Chapter 7: How did Jessica Tarlov confront Kash Patel on Fox News?
shows Cornyn ahead of both Tallarico and Crockett and Paxton trailing Tallarico and just barely ahead of Jasmine Crockett. Now, this is all in Texas. Here's my view on this. And yesterday we already talked a little bit about the it seems that every election cycle now we hear Texas is in play. Democrats could take Texas.
And I think at some point that very well could happen, even if there hasn't been a senator from Texas for decades.
Chapter 8: What feedback did listeners provide in the Friday segment?
If Republicans are forced to defend Texas in November, That shifts the national map because money that would normally go to North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan would have to be diverted just to hold Texas, which sometimes is considered just automatic.
And even making Republicans spend money in Texas is very valuable strategically because every dollar you burn in Texas, you don't have somewhere else. The environment isn't a comfortable one for the Republican Party. Nationally, 79 percent of Democrats say they are definitely voting in November. Only 65 percent of Republicans say they are definitely voting in November.
So that's a 14 point enthusiasm gap. And that's the largest Democrats have had ahead of a midterm since at least 2006. Now look at 2018. In 2018, Democrats took back the House. They had a five point enthusiasm edge. This is now three times that, which is wild. Now, here's another layer. And we talked about this a little bit yesterday in Texas, the early midterm primary ballot so far
are 53 percent Democratic, 47 percent Republican. At the same time in 2022, Democrats had made 38 percent of the votes and Republicans 62 percent. OK, that is a massive 15 point shift in early ballots. Now, this doesn't tell you who they're voting for, But it does tell you that Democrats seem way more motivated and way more interested. None of it guarantees a Democratic win. Texas is still red.
Turnout in November is going to decide who ultimately wins. But if you're asking yourself, should Republicans be worried about this? The answer is absolutely. They're in the middle of a divisive primary. They they're potentially going to select a very flawed nominee in Ken Paxton. There are credible Democratic challengers. There is an enthusiasm edge for Democrats in general.
And the turnout pattern or trajectory is 15 points different from what it was recently. Texas isn't supposed to be competitive. The fact that Republican leadership is talking about losing tells you how uneasy they are. And if Texas becomes a battleground, it's going to be much harder for Republicans to control the Senate. That's why they're nervous.
Now, there is a bigger story here as well, which is that if we think about twenty twenty eight and we think about is this going to be a Republican Party that doubles down on MAGA after Trump is gone or will it be a Republican Party that goes in a different direction?
Part of what happens in Texas could inform that if John Cornyn wins the primary and somehow lost the general, that would be one version of events. If Ken Paxton wins the primary and loses the general in Texas, that would be another sign about the direction. If Ken Paxton wins the primary and wins in November, that would be a very pro MAGA sentiment.
that would make Trump and others say we've got to go hardcore MAGA in twenty twenty eight. These are all TBD. The point is, let's make them spend money to defend Texas. And once that primary is sorted out, is it Tallarico? It's looking Tallarico. Is it going to be Jasmine Crockett? Let's do everything we can to try to win the seat.
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