The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett
The Investing & Crypto Expert: "We Only Have 6 Years Until Everything Changes!", "The S&P 500 Isn't Worth Your Time!", "Don't Keep Spare Cash In A Bank!"
Thu, 07 Nov 2024
The clock is ticking – Raoul Pal reveals how AI will transform the global economy and why crypto might be your best chance of survival Raoul Pal is the co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world-renowned financial knowledge and education platform. He is also the former Head of European Hedge Fund Sales at Goldman Sachs. In this conversation, Raoul and Steven discuss topics such as, why we can’t trust central banks, how to build wealth with crypto, how to protect your job from AI, and how to secure your financial future in 6 years or less. (00:00) Intro (02:07) What Is Raouls Mission? (05:38) What Would The Average Person Say About Raouls Work? (06:47) What Will Fuck My Financial Future? (11:14) Stats Today Vs 1980's (12:18) How To Play 'The Game' Of Finance In Your Younger Years? (13:30) What About Work Life Balance? (13:58) What Knowledge Should I Acquire? (14:57) How To Become An Expert? (16:41) Manifesting Your Future (17:16) How To Progress Once You're An Expert (19:42) What If You Don't Have Excess Income To Invest? (24:05) What About Buying A House? (26:28) Viewers Comments (30:07) Advice From Steven's Brother About Being An Expert (31:58) Applying Your Knowledge To Get The Highest Return (39:01) How Do I Spot A Trend (39:02) AI Will Free So Much Our Time That We Won't Know What To Do With It (42:53) The AI Component (47:24) How Disruptive Will AI Be? (51:18) Should We Be Scared Of AI? (54:37) How To Know If A Trend Will Be Persistent (57:53) Are We At The Collapse Of The Digital Industry? (59:06) How Do You Invest In AI? (01:00:51) What Is Crypto (01:01:18) Productivity And AI (01:06:32) Blockchain Explained (01:08:04) Contracts On The Blockchain (01:10:54) NFTs (01:12:12) Should You Invest In Blockchain? (01:21:43) How Do I Benefit From Buying Crypto? (01:23:01) How To Invest In Crypto (01:24:27) What Is A Ledger Device? (01:25:41) What Coin Should You Invest In? (01:32:14) What Is Leverage? (01:37:45) Do Men Invest More In Crypto? (01:39:42) The Nightmare Stories With Crypto (01:41:41) What Is Raoul's Price Prediction? (01:45:20) What If Raoul Is Wrong? (01:49:36) What Is The Debasement Of Currency? (02:00:50) The Best Trade Is Quality Of Life (02:08:34) Guest's Last Question Follow Raoul: Instagram - https://g2ul0.app.link/4dEPXGm3iOb Twitter - https://g2ul0.app.link/AWXhSso3iOb Website - https://g2ul0.app.link/SFceWtr3iOb You can learn more about Raoul’s ‘The Everything Code’, here: https://g2ul0.app.link/TqcS68j3iOb Watch the episodes on Youtube - https://g2ul0.app.link/DOACEpisodes My new book! 'The 33 Laws Of Business & Life' is out now - https://g2ul0.app.link/DOACBook You can purchase the The Diary Of A CEO Conversation Cards: Second Edition, here: https://g2ul0.app.link/f31dsUttKKb Follow me: https://g2ul0.app.link/gnGqL4IsKKb Sponsors: WHOOP - https://join.whoop.com/CEO ZOE - http://joinzoe.com with code BARTLETT10 for 10% off Colgate - https://www.colgate.com/en-gb/colgate-total Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What is Raoul's mission in the financial world?
Und das ist ein Problem für die finanzielle Sicherheit und die Wachstumskreation. Aber ich weiß, wo die Möglichkeiten liegen und ich habe Antworten. Könntest du es mir durch den Kontext von diesem Thema erklären?
Okay, also... Raoul Pal ist einer der beruflichsten Stimmen in der immer verändernden Welt der modernen Finanzierung.
Bis zum nächsten Mal.
A couple of questions here then. So, I'm now 30 years old-ish. I haven't missed the boat. No. Much of the reason why I think people don't invest in crypto is they've heard stories where people have put too much in and they've lost it all. So what if you're wrong? We're going to talk about how lots of f*** it up.
And then how do I invest in crypto? It's really simple. You're going to start somewhere. So, do that and you'll make money.
Well, from a very high-level perspective... Und ich bin hier nicht spezifisch, also ich suche eine unbekannte Antwort. Was genau ist die Mission, die du in dieser Saison deines Lebens hast? Was tust du und wofür tust du es?
Also, offensichtlich tust du es für dich selbst. Aber ich denke wirklich, dass ich mit Werkzeugen und Wissen in den letzten Jahren, in meiner 30-jährigen Karriere, dass ich einen guten Sinn habe, wo die Welt geht. Where the opportunities lie and where the risk lies for people. And I can see the problems people are facing and I think I've got answers.
So what I want to do is help as many people as possible in that journey. And why that happened to me was I was in Spain back in 2012 and also during the financial crisis 2008. I was writing macroeconomic research for my research service Global Macro Investor. I had seen it coming. I predicted it. I knew it was coming. I knew the problems. I warned all of my friends. Nobody listened.
Nobody understood about the financial crisis, what was going to happen. Most of them, because I was living in a beach town in Spain, they were in real estate. They all went bust. But worse than that was that when we got to the European crisis... when basically the governments of Europe ran out of money. The banks also ran out of money.
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Chapter 2: How can I build wealth with crypto?
Chapter 3: Why shouldn't I trust central banks?
Wenn du auf einer Mission bist, um Menschen zu helfen, ihre Zukunft zu verletzen, kannst du mir die Dinge erklären, die die Chance haben, ihre Zukunft zu verletzen, aus einer Makroperspektive? Und wenn ich sage Makro, müssen wir pausieren und einfach definieren, was ich mit der Worte Makro meine. Wenn ich die Worte Makro denke, meine ich Big Picture Perspektive.
Also aus einer Big Picture Perspektive, was sind die Dinge, die eine Chance haben, meine Zukunft zu verletzen?
Okay, so, and we can dig into why these things have occurred, but generally speaking, wages in real terms adjusted for inflation haven't gone up for decades. So nobody's getting richer. If you're an American, you have this powerful meme, which is the American dream. But that is not a reality for most people. The reality is, you grind it out, Your savings are not worth what you thought they'd be.
This whole promise of your pension and swanning around on a cruise ship around the Caribbean when you're older, living in a nice house, none of that is true. And it's because wages haven't gone up. So, okay, so let's cut to somebody who's in their 30s now. Because this is the really important cohort, I think, for this. They can't afford to buy a house.
Wenn ich zurückkehre, als ich 30 war, habe ich ein Haus in London gekauft und es war ein schönes Gebäude in einem guten Bereich und es war ein Salar von dreieinhalb Mal. Ja, ich war in der Finanzen, ich hatte einen hohen Salar. Du kannst nichts für drei und eine halbe Mal deinen Salar kaufen.
Jetzt ist das gleiche Gebäude, wenn ich den gleichen jungen Investmentbanker-Salar genommen habe, wahrscheinlich acht oder zehn Mal. Also ist es doppelt, wie teuer es ist, nur dein erstes Haus zu kaufen. So, what is a house? Firstly, it's your quality of life. Particularly, you know, in England, the UK, in the UK, sorry, in the US, we're homebuyers. You know, we think of our home as our castle.
It's like the thing that solidifies our security. But, you know, if you're in Germany, for example, they don't, they rent. But if we think about the mindset of owning a house, it's an asset that you can then pass on or you can sell if you need to. And an asset is... Really a future savings plan. It's something you save now that in the future you can consume, you can buy stuff with.
But what you're doing is for the average 35 year old, the average millennial is 36 years old. They can't afford to buy the house. So therefore their future self is poorer. If they think of how much of the stock market they can buy. They can buy less with their money. They have less savings. They've got debts from university. So they don't have the ability to get out of this trap.
And then what you're finding is because of this, they're having to live with other people into their 30s. They don't have kids and they don't get married. And these numbers have collapsed since 1983. You've seen these numbers come down from people living on their own. So you could get your job, get yourself an apartment. It's gone from 80% to 62%. You're seeing the marriage rate halve.
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Chapter 4: What are the risks of keeping cash in the bank?
Chapter 5: How do I protect my job from AI?
Well, I would have had to have figured out, okay, how do I make this scale? How do I employ people? How do I train them to have the right standards? All of that. You ask yourself your question of what that success looks like. And you kind of deconstruct it and go back and make it happen.
So you reverse engineer it back from that five-year reality. So window cleaner with 20 employees, I need to learn management skills. I need to learn how to clean a window. Accounting. Accounting. I need to learn probably marketing so that I can spread the message of my business. I probably need to learn potentially like how to speak, like public speaking, because that's sales.
So I need to learn sales.
And technology, you know, what solvents, detergents are people using? What other ways of doing it more efficiently and faster so I can beat the competitor?
Oh, so I might go and work for a big window cleaning company to see how they do it, to try and see the opportunity. in what they're not doing.
Yeah, or even somebody who manufactures stuff for that sector. It can be anything where you can glean knowledge to give yourself an unfair advantage. Now, on podcasts it always makes it easy. Everyone becomes an entrepreneur and before you know it, everybody's rich. It doesn't work that way. But all I'm trying to do is stack the odds in your favor of getting close to that image of your future self.
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Chapter 6: What is the future of investing in AI?
And you can reverse engineer it.
Also bin ich jetzt ein Experte in was auch immer. Ich bin 29 Jahre alt und bin ein Experte in Wälderkleidung oder was auch immer es sein könnte. Und ich bin ein Generalist in vielen Dingen. Sie sagen, das wird mich ermöglichen, Geld in etwas zu bauen, damit ich in die nächste Saison meines Lebens gehen kann.
Also, wenn du ein Experte wirst oder wenn du gut an etwas wirst, wenn du vorsichtig bist in deiner Ausgabe, wirst du überflüssiges Einkommen erzeugen. Weil Leute dich für deine Expertise zahlen werden. So, if you manage yourself carefully in those first few years, that excess cash, you can then choose what to do with it.
Now,
Der Welt der Investitionen war dieser Welt von seltsamen Finanzvorsitzenden. Und sie sagten dir etwas wie, du tust das und dann bist du ein 25-Jähriger. In 45 Jahren wirst du Geld bekommen. Ich meine, fuck that. Ich meine, was werde ich davon bekommen, wenn ich 65 Jahre alt bin? Ich bekomme plötzlich ein Lumpensum, das ich mein ganzes Leben für Ersatz gespart habe. Ich fühle es nicht.
Ich habe keine emotionale Verbindung zu meinem Pensionplan. And I've got real world problems to solve. I can't buy a house. I can't get married. I can't have kids. So I need to solve these in a shorter time period than my pension. My pension was suitable for a different generation that just needed enough after they stopped working. So I've got to solve that. And the answer is investing.
Then most people roll their eyes and go, really? Stocks and bonds? It's boring. Yeah, but the world has changed. The world has changed in many, many ways, but it's offered us opportunities, whether it's investing in technology, investing in crypto, that gives us much higher returns, stupidly higher returns in shorter periods of time. Okay, that's magic. That's magic for young people.
It may be too risky for their parents, but if you're young and you can take some risk, Okay, here's your chance. So now you can build a business, use some excess savings, put in investments, Jetzt bist du auf dem Weg.
Also, lasst uns dann auf Investieren gehen. Aber bevor wir auf Investieren gehen, habe ich durch die verschiedenen Persönlichkeiten meines Publikums gespielt. Und ich dachte, dass einige von ihnen gerade wirklich, wirklich, wirklich hart arbeiten. Sie machen, ihr wisst, sie könnten ein Fahrradfahrer sein, sie könnten, ihr wisst, manche Art von manuellen Arbeit machen.
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Chapter 7: Why is the S&P 500 not worth my time?
Chapter 8: How do I invest in cryptocurrency?
Okay, was ich jetzt sagen werde, ist ein Mischmasch von Ideen, die mir als du sprichst kamen. Der erste war, wie spotte ich eine Trend? Und wenn ich das sage, meine ich, wie fühlt es sich im Moment an? Weil die Trends, die du kapitalisiert hast und die Trends, die ich kapitalisiert habe, fühlen sich auf eine gewisse Art an der Zeit an.
Und hier spreche ich darüber, wie zerstörerisch sie sind, das Gegenteil, was die Leute dir sagen, sie werden dir sagen, du bist ein Idiot. Und dann mit dem auch, du hast darüber gesprochen, wie wir gerade in der Welt leben, Dinge wie Natur eine gute Idee zu beten. Und ich habe tatsächlich einen Post auf meinem LinkedIn über genau das gemacht.
Ich habe gesagt, mein Investitionsfonds beiträgt zwei Dinge im Moment. A.I. und Automation und genau das Gegenteil, weil ich dieses Viral Video von Leuten gesehen habe, und ich glaube, es war wie ein Café in Amsterdam, die jetzt jede Woche kommen, keine Telefone erlaubt, sie lesen Bücher und sie knüpfen. Und dieses Café in Amsterdam ist wie explodierend.
Ich werde das Video dieser Leute auf dem Bildschirm stellen, um alle zu sehen. Und es hat mich erkannt, und das überlappt mit dem, was zwei Freundinnen und Freund von mir zu mir im Privat gesagt haben. Sie sagten, das sind Billionäre, die in A.I. investieren, sie investieren in Krypto, Sie kennen wahrscheinlich einen von ihnen. Und sie investieren in Psychedeliken.
Sie sagten mir, wenn du gerade investieren willst, investiere in AI, wenn du kannst. Aber wenn du nicht kannst, investiere in Unterhaltung und Gemeinschaft.
Weil in einem Weltraum von AI, wo die Produktivität so hoch ist und wir vielleicht eine Art universaler basic income bewegen, wo die Regierung einfach die Leute Geld anzieht, werden die Leute so viel freie Zeit auf ihren Händen haben, dass sie etwas damit tun werden müssen. Er sagte mir, das ist der Grund, warum du diesen Riss in den Menschen in Fußballclubs siehst.
und Sport-Franchises, weil das die Gemeinschaft ist und auch die Unterhaltung. Ich stelle all das an Sie.
Ja, die gleiche und gleiche Idee ist, denke ich, sehr wichtig. Ich kam vor drei Wochen zurück aus Zambien, wohne auf einer Tente auf dem Boden eines Toyota Land Cruisers, der auf der Straße vorbereitet ist, und gehe in den totalen Wilden. And I can't express how in the present you become. How it cleanses your mind from all of the clutter. All of the things you worry about.
The broken car or whatever's going on online. The politics. It all goes. And it all becomes about... You wake up. Who's going to make the coffee? Who's going to put the fire on? And so... The more time we spend online, the more we desperately crave. I saw it in the Cayman Islands, where I live. So it's a Caribbean island. And it was 2022. And the world hadn't really recovered.
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