Chapter 1: How is Donald Trump influencing the 2026 primary season?
Today kicks off primary season, and while President Donald Trump isn't on the ballot, he's everywhere in the primaries. Across the country, Republican candidates are running toward him, away from him, and trying to redefine what MAGA even means in 2026. At the same time, Democrats are facing their own identity questions as key races heat up in places like Georgia and Maine.
So what are these early contests really telling us about where both parties are headed and who's gaining the advantage heading into the midterms. Hello and welcome to USA Today's The Excerpt. I'm Dana Taylor. Today is Monday, March 2nd, 2026. To get a handle on all of it, I'm now joined by USA Today Chief Political Correspondent Philip M. Bailey. Welcome back, Philip.
Hey, Dana.
Chapter 2: What challenges are Republicans facing in the primaries?
How are you?
I'm good. So give me the lay of the land here. What are the big races you're watching this year, and what's the story of this primary season?
Well, look, I think the big story here is that, you know, President Trump, as his numbers are wobbling nationwide and his popularity is beginning to wane, he's really worried about, and we saw this beginning really last year, of Democrats taking back Congress. Now, this happens with every president in power, right, where The party that's out of power makes the referendum.
The president isn't doing what they're supposed to do, so you should give us at least some reigns in that. And that's the argument that I think Democrats are really going to lean into, particularly with affordability being the lead issue here.
Chapter 3: How are Democrats redefining their identity in the primaries?
We're already seeing, Dana, in some of these special elections, both at the congressional and state legislative level, in areas that Donald Trump was very successful in, Democrats prevailing, like in Texas. So, look, the president has already, with those redistricting wars that he started last year, tried to anticipate Democrats taking back at the very least the House.
But when we spoke with Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer earlier this year when I had a one on one with him, he believes that the Senate is now within reach. That will require a little bit of heavy lifting for Democrats. That's going to require them to flip states like Alaska, like.
like Maine, Ohio, and North Carolina, and also at the same time defend states that they have right now, Michigan and Georgia. So the way of the map right now is Donald Trump knowing that if Democrats take back the House and the Senate, particularly the House, his presidency is effectively over.
Chapter 4: What insights can we gain from early primary contests?
Trump has been the face of the MAGA party since the beginning, but he isn't on the ballot, Philip. Is his hold on the Republican Party still as strong as ever?
It looks that way initially. Look, when we look down, for example, and we're going to have some tests here in some of these Republican primaries.
Let's take, for example, Marjorie Taylor Greene's old seat, the former congressman who was really the queen, the matriarch of the MAGA movement until she had some significant differences with President Trump on some issues like strikes to Iran, issues of affordability.
But chiefly, though, I think we should point out the main issue that MTG had with the president was that apparently, according to reporting across the country,
that the president told her that she didn't have the numbers to run for senate down in georgia so in her old seat in georgia's 14th congressional district which is northern georgia just outside of atlanta going up to the border with tennessee we see there that there's going to be a major test of president trump endorsing one of those candidates there and whether that person will end up winning that race will be a real first test of his still stronghold on the maga base that 14th district
Dana is one of the most MAGA-oriented, conservative, pro-Trump districts in the country. And it looks like Mr. Fuller, the individual, the former prosecutor that he's endorsing, is considered the lead candidate. There's also in Kentucky, 4th Congressional District held by Thomas Massey,
where President Trump and his allies have really leaned into and put a lot of money into Congressman Massey's primary opponent. That, I think, even more so than Georgia's 14th congressional district, will be a real test and real Alamo moment for Trump in terms of his party hold. If Massey falls, that shows that Donald Trump still is the big elephant in the room.
If Massey prevails, this is a man who's co-sponsored the Epstein-Fowles legislation, for example. He has been a thorn in President Trump's side for a number of years now. If he survives, you could start seeing Republicans at the House level and other Republican candidates across the country begin to buck the president, realizing that, oh, I have a political future beyond him, number one.
And number two, he isn't able to simply leverage out people who don't agree with his agenda or don't go along with the White House.
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Chapter 5: Is Trump's grip on the Republican Party still strong?
That tension will remain with Democrats for a long period of time. I don't think one primary season will wash that away. But I do think you're going to see a continued struggle for Democrats in the future. Their numbers have not necessarily improved. It's just that Donald Trump's numbers have tanked.
There's going to be this continued tension between do we continue to go after Donald Trump, who is someone who generates a lightning rod on the left anytime he's mentioned or brought up? At the same time, Democrats feel like we have to move beyond Donald Trump. He won't be necessarily president forever.
I know there's a lot of folks on the left who think that he might try to be president for a third term. But there is this tension here that I don't think will be resolved just because voters pick younger, more left-leaning candidates.
All right. Philip M. Bailey is USA Today's chief political correspondent. Philip, it's always great to speak with you. Thank you for coming on.
No problem. Thank you.
Thanks to our senior producer, Kaylee Monahan, for her production assistance, our executive producer is Laura Beatty. Let us know what you think of this episode by sending a note to podcasts at usatoday.com. Thanks for listening. I'm Dana Taylor. I'll be back tomorrow morning with another episode of USA Today's The Excerpt.
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