Trumps’s approval rating could be a problem for GOP in the midterms
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How might Trump's approval rating impact the GOP in the midterms?
As the critical midterms approach, we're taking a look at how Trump's numbers may be influencing voters. At stake, 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, 39 governorships, and the nation's political direction for the next two years. Hello and welcome to USA Today's The Excerpt. I'm Dana Taylor. Today is Tuesday, February 17th, 2026. Here to help me talk about what the numbers can tell us about those midterms is USA Today Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page. Susan, thank you so much for joining me.
Hey, it's great to be back with you.
Susan, President Donald Trump isn't going to be on the ballot this fall and per law never will be again. Why does voters' perception of his track record so far matter so much in the midterms?
What are the stakes in the upcoming midterm elections?
Well, Daniel, of course, you're right. The president's not on the ballot in the midterm. That's why we call them midterms, midway through their term. But the midterms are all about the presidents. And that's true not just for Donald Trump, but for previous presidents. It's the first chance that voters have to weigh in on how they think the president is doing. And in a few cases, the president's party has actually gained ground in the midterms, but that's not usually the case. Usually this is a chance for voters to say to presidents, you're not focused on the issues that I care about, or you're not delivering what you promised in the last campaign. So for most presidents, midterms have been a pain point, not an opportunity to expand how they're doing.
Let's shift to Trump's approval rating. What is it now? How has it been trending? And what does it tell us about how the upcoming midterm elections might go?
We took a look at three of the more respected pollsters who have recently been in the field, and they put his approval rating at 36 or 37 percent. That is dismal. That is the worst. If that persists until the midterms, that would be the worst standing for a president since Harry Truman. So that is a red alarm blaring for Republicans because when a president's approval rating is that low, when it sinks to 40 percent or below, that is really a time we see often dozens of House seats lost by the president's party.
Voters across America are very concerned right now about the economy. The University of Michigan's Authoritative Consumer Sentiment Survey measures this through a number called either economic optimism or economic angst, depending on its value. Where does that stand today?
You know, when we talk about the economy, often we talk about things like the unemployment rate or the GDP or the inflation rate. And those are important numbers, and those numbers are actually looking pretty good. But if you look at how people are feeling about the economy, it's not so good. That's one reason we were looking at the University of Michigan survey, which goes back to the 1950s. It asked Americans whether they feel like around their kitchen table the economy is doing well or not well, how optimistic or pessimistic they are about the future. And the number in February was 57.3. So to put that in some context, the lowest the rating has been in the past half century is 50. The highest it's been is just over 111.
So this is a relatively low rating.
Why is voters' perception of Trump's track record crucial for the midterms?
This is a sign that a lot of voters, a lot of Americans are feeling that the economy isn't doing well. It's not doing well for them and their families. And we find in their survey that the wealthier you are, the more you're invested in the stock market, for instance, the better you're feeling. But for households that are not invested in the stock market, they are as pessimistic now as they've been even at the end of the COVID pandemic.
What kinds of levers has the Trump administration been using to execute on his promise to lower prices and, in general, make the economy outlook a little brighter for people?
Well, we do see gas prices down. We see the inflation rate under better control. Egg prices, which were a big source of concern in the Biden administration, are way down. But electricity costs are up. People are finding it harder to buy a home.
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