Chapter 1: How might Trump's approval rating impact the GOP in the midterms?
As the critical midterms approach, we're taking a look at how Trump's numbers may be influencing voters. At stake, 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, 39 governorships, and the nation's political direction for the next two years. Hello and welcome to USA Today's The Excerpt. I'm Dana Taylor. Today is Tuesday, February 17th, 2026.
Here to help me talk about what the numbers can tell us about those midterms is USA Today Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page. Susan, thank you so much for joining me.
Hey, it's great to be back with you.
Susan, President Donald Trump isn't going to be on the ballot this fall and per law never will be again. Why does voters' perception of his track record so far matter so much in the midterms?
Chapter 2: What are the stakes in the upcoming midterm elections?
Well, Daniel, of course, you're right. The president's not on the ballot in the midterm. That's why we call them midterms, midway through their term. But the midterms are all about the presidents. And that's true not just for Donald Trump, but for previous presidents. It's the first chance that voters have to weigh in on how they think the president is doing.
And in a few cases, the president's party has actually gained ground in the midterms, but that's not usually the case. Usually this is a chance for voters to say to presidents, you're not focused on the issues that I care about, or you're not delivering what you promised in the last campaign. So for most presidents, midterms have been a pain point, not an opportunity to expand how they're doing.
Let's shift to Trump's approval rating. What is it now? How has it been trending? And what does it tell us about how the upcoming midterm elections might go?
We took a look at three of the more respected pollsters who have recently been in the field, and they put his approval rating at 36 or 37 percent. That is dismal. That is the worst. If that persists until the midterms, that would be the worst standing for a president since Harry Truman.
So that is a red alarm blaring for Republicans because when a president's approval rating is that low, when it sinks to 40 percent or below, that is really a time we see often dozens of House seats lost by the president's party.
Voters across America are very concerned right now about the economy. The University of Michigan's Authoritative Consumer Sentiment Survey measures this through a number called either economic optimism or economic angst, depending on its value. Where does that stand today?
You know, when we talk about the economy, often we talk about things like the unemployment rate or the GDP or the inflation rate. And those are important numbers, and those numbers are actually looking pretty good. But if you look at how people are feeling about the economy, it's not so good. That's one reason we were looking at the University of Michigan survey, which goes back to the 1950s.
It asked Americans whether they feel like around their kitchen table the economy is doing well or not well, how optimistic or pessimistic they are about the future. And the number in February was 57.3. So to put that in some context, the lowest the rating has been in the past half century is 50. The highest it's been is just over 111. So this is a relatively low rating.
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Chapter 3: Why is voters' perception of Trump's track record crucial for the midterms?
This is a sign that a lot of voters, a lot of Americans are feeling that the economy isn't doing well. It's not doing well for them and their families. And we find in their survey that the wealthier you are, the more you're invested in the stock market, for instance, the better you're feeling.
But for households that are not invested in the stock market, they are as pessimistic now as they've been even at the end of the COVID pandemic.
What kinds of levers has the Trump administration been using to execute on his promise to lower prices and, in general, make the economy outlook a little brighter for people?
Well, we do see gas prices down. We see the inflation rate under better control. Egg prices, which were a big source of concern in the Biden administration, are way down. But electricity costs are up. People are finding it harder to buy a home. So it's a kind of mixed economy. You do see the president pushing the Federal Reserve Board to lower interest rates.
That would juice up the economy if the Federal Reserve went along and did that.
I did want to ask about that. Trump has named his nominee for the new chairman of the Fed as Kevin Warsh. Warsh is expected to succeed the current chair, Jerome Powell, in May when his term ends. Are we expecting Warsh to execute on Trump's demands for lower interest rates? And how might that have an impact on the economy?
Well, of course, Powell was also appointed by Trump, but he has not been a friendly ear for Trump's entreaties to lower interest rates. And that's because he's expressed alarm about what it might do to inflation. That is always a balance the Federal Reserve tries to strike. Now, Warsh is a figure from Wall Street. He's served on the Fed before. He's a respected figure.
And he almost certainly will be more likely to be attuned to Trump's attitude on this than Powell has been. In fact, Trump has made it clear that that is all but a condition for his appointment, that he will move to lower interest rates. So it's entirely possible that we'll see that ahead.
Health care costs have skyrocketed for millions of Americans this year as the ACA or Obamacare subsidies have been allowed to expire. And despite many attempts to convince American voters that the Republicans had a better health care plan to roll out, that hasn't happened, not in Trump's first term, and it doesn't look promising for a second.
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Chapter 4: What is the current trend of Trump's approval rating?
Some of that is because of concern about the tactics they saw being used on the streets of Minneapolis. But the Republicans have a potential answer to this, which is to try to focus more attention on immigration on the southern border, because that is where the president's support continues to be strong.
His administration has been largely successful in controlling the southern border in a way we didn't see during the Biden administration. So can they get people to focus on that when they think about immigration and not about what they saw on the streets of Minneapolis?
Overall, what will you be watching for over the next few months from the Trump administration with regards to boosting Republican candidates?
You know, nine months is a long time. That's time enough for things to change. But if things stay the same as they are now, Democrats are quite confident that they will take control of the House of Representatives. They only need to flip three seats to do that. And they are increasingly optimistic that they might win control of the Senate as well.
Susan Page is USA Today's Washington Bureau Chief. Susan, it is always good to have you on. Thank you. Thanks to our senior producer, Kaylee Monahan, for her production assistance, our executive producer is Laura Beatty. Let us know what you think of this episode by sending a note to podcast at usatoday.com. Thanks for listening. I'm Dana Taylor.
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