Chapter 1: Why is the Iran war considered the least popular war at launch in U.S. history?
The Iran war is officially the least popular war ever to launch in American history. Less popular than Iraq, less popular than Vietnam, less popular than Libya, which was a disaster from the very beginning. Will President Trump change course? Will he instead change public opinion by the midterms? Do the midterms even matter? I'm Michael Knowles, this is the Michael Knowles Show. Thank you.
Welcome back to the show. Tim Ferriss, one of the most popular self-help gurus in the world, has just come out and suggested something that I have been saying for many, many years, namely that self-help is very, very bad for you. Self-help is self-harm. We'll get into the woo-woo. First though, go check out Just Thrive Probiotic. Go to justthrivehealth.com slash Knowles, Canada W-L-E-S.
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They're different things. The Iran war is... by the standards of war, going pretty well. The United States military has achieved all of its objectives faster than we were told they were going to. And so it seems to be doing all right. Even some of the downstream effects of the war, like the price of oil shooting through the roof, even that has come down a little bit.
There's still some debate over what exactly is going on in the Strait of Hormuz. But all things considered, We're killing the people that we set out to kill, and we're giving space for the political movements that we sought to support, and we're deterring the enemies like Russia and China. So all things considered, it's going pretty well. That is not translating to public perception.
People hate this war. They hate this war. The New York Times, I know, I know, big grain of salt. The New York Times has just come out with some polls on this, or with a poll showing the popularity of the war, but other outlets are bringing out polls too, and it's not all that different. To put this in historical perspective, 97% of Americans supported World War II when we entered.
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Chapter 2: What factors are influencing public perception of the Iran war?
Famous last words, but Trump has a lot of credibility in foreign policy, and he's already achieving his objectives faster even than he had predicted. So it could be the case that he just turns public opinion around here. But all of that to say with these polls, The stakes here are even higher for President Trump than we, I think, previously appreciated.
I said from the beginning, I said from the beginning, had I been on the National Security Council, I would have made arguments against this war in Iran. Not because I'm a pacifist, not because of some ideological reason, but just because of the practical, prudential realities. I would have thought it was too big a risk. Trump comes in and he says, no, we're going to go into Iran.
I don't think because of ideology. I think he went in because he felt he could do it. The threat from Iran was high. The effectiveness with which he could wage the war was also high. And he just bet on himself. Very, very confident guy. Now the stakes are even higher because he has to turn public opinion around in an historic way. Least popular war ever at launch.
before the midterms, which are in a little over six months. It's a tall order. It's a tall order for anybody. It's a tall order for Pericles. It's a tall order for Count von Metternich. It's a tall order for the greatest politicians in history. Now, Trump, he's a world historic figure, okay? If anyone can do it, he can do it. But the high stakes just got higher.
And even people who are sympathetic to Trump are really fretting. They're panicking. I think of even guys like Joe Rogan. Joe Rogan cozying up to Trump was one of the factors that really shifted momentum in President Trump's favor, I think, especially among younger voters. Joe Rogan is openly worrying that this could be the beginning of World War III. Yeah.
I mean, it's just such a... I mean, the whole... The whole situation internationally has been so tense already with what's going on in Gaza, with what's going on in Ukraine. And to add this to the pile, it genuinely feels like there's a real possibility that we might be entering World War III. What would that look like? I don't know. I never expected Iran to start attacking.
They launched bombs into UAE, Dubai. I mean, where else? Joe Rogan worrying that we're on the brink of World War III. Now, don't forget... Don't forget, people were saying we were on the brink of World War III with the Fordow strikes over the summer, and then it was fine. Like two days later, it was totally fine.
People were saying we were on the brink of World War III with Venezuela, and then 88 minutes later, it was fine. It was totally fine. And the regime that Trump has installed, or the person from within the existing regime that Trump has allowed to remain in her role, is doing well and is cooperating with us. So I'm not the one freaking out here. I'm not panicking.
I realize the stakes of this Iran war are a little bit higher. But Joe Rogan, I've said for years, one of the great values of Joe Rogan is that he is the median voter. He's not particularly ideological. He's not exactly dogmatic. He's open-minded. He's curious. He's smart, but he's not expert in everything. He's the median voter. He's great as a measure of where people are.
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Chapter 3: How do historical comparisons shape our understanding of the Iran war's popularity?
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I conducted a highly scientific Twitter poll months and months, six months ago, more. I said, should the U.S. go to war with Iran? 80%, 90% said no. And then immediately underneath, I said, should the U.S. allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons? 80 or 90%, almost the exact same number said no. You see those two statements are at odds. That was the predicament that Trump was in.
People could say, well, Iran wasn't that close to a nuclear weapon. Yeah, but they were pursuing it. No serious person thinks they weren't pursuing it. They were openly pursuing a nuclear program, and they were obviously pursuing nuclear bombs. So the American people are overwhelmingly telling you that they want two things that are directly in conflict with each other, polar opposites.
What does that mean? I'll give you another example of this. The majority of Americans today want mass deportations. Mass deportations remain a popular mainstream political issue. Most Americans want mass deportations. Most Americans want ICE to stop deporting so many people. Excuse me? What? Hold on. Did you guys read the first question before you answered the second question?
The two things that most Americans want are directly in conflict with each other. We want more deportations, but we want the people who are doing the deporting to stop deporting so many people. What does that mean? How do we make sense of that? Are people just stupid?
That's what a lot of the sneering, condescending political analyst podcast class is going to conclude, that the people are stupid. I don't think it's that the people are stupid. I think that what people are expressing is they feel that their situation is precarious. People feel uncommonly fearful and They are even more than usual desirous of safety.
And they feel that even the winds right now are precarious. It's the only way to explain how Republicans and Democrats are tied on the economy. Trump has objectively succeeded at every level in the economy. Joe Biden had 9% inflation. Trump's brought inflation way, way down. The stock market has hit all time highs. Unemployment is down. The economy is doing very, very well.
It could always use some improvement, but it's doing very, very well. You say, well, what about housing prices? What about affordability? Rentals declined six months in a row. 100% of the rental demand increase in recent years was driven by illegal immigration when you look at California and New York. 60% was driven by illegal immigration nationwide. Trump is deporting the illegals.
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Chapter 4: What is the significance of the midterms in relation to the Iran war?
Needs to persuade people that there's a plan. Probably the worst thing about the messaging on Iran, and this is being exacerbated by podcasters, is they're saying this is a betrayal of what Trump promised. If you were listening to what Trump said, this should not be surprising at all. But people are saying Trump said he'd never have a war again in the Middle East.
Trump said he doesn't want to go to war generally. Trump said that, what, he was going to let Iran have a nuclear bomb? No, he never said any of that stuff. He campaigned in 2016 on going in and destroying ISIS. He campaigned this time around. This time around, he campaigned specifically on backing an Israeli attack on Iran. I don't mean to laugh at it.
As I told you, I would have argued against the Iran war. Don't tell me that he campaigned on something that he didn't. We need coherence. We need unity. We need people to feel that everything's not so precarious. Okay, speaking of violence and Muslims... The greatest CNN headline, the greatest CNN headline in the history of that cable news outlet has just come out.
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Muslim terrorists who showed up to a counter protest in New York City as a lib was yelling about how everyone's welcome here and we need more Islam this guy leaps over throws a bomb then pledges allegiance to Isis and shouts Allahu Akbar and this is how CNN described it to Pennsylvania teenagers I can't even get through the first three words without laughing.
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Chapter 5: How does self-help literature impact personal well-being?
I smell that as a scam from 100 miles away. I want to improve myself. I want to improve. But the self-help stuff, when I was a teenager, I read a little bit of it. 48 Laws of Power by Robert Greene. You remember that one? Or what was the really famous one? How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie.
I'll tell you, by the way, if you ever want to read, that's really the classic of self-help. And as I remember it, I haven't read it in many years. All it boils down to is be nice to people and remember their names. That's it. I just saved you 10 bucks on Amazon. And I guess that's good advice. But a lot of the self-help stuff, I think, is pretty noxious. I've thought this for years.
And Tim Ferriss agrees. Tim Ferriss seems to have had a road to Damascus moment, not necessarily with a religious conversion, but with a recognition that what he was doing might be wrong. According to the Telegraph writing about this, it says, now as Tim Ferriss approaches the halfway point of his life, Ferris may be confronting his most profound insight yet.
In his latest blog post, The Self-Help Trap, what 20 plus years of optimizing has taught me, optimizing, that's one of the words they all use. Ferris, now 48, asks whether his own industry might, with some important caveats, be making desperate people worse rather than better. Quote, the older I get, the more I think that self-help can be a trap. Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.
I say this after around 20 years of writing self-help and a lifetime of consuming it. This is a 3,000-word blog post. What if self-help itself is actually creating or amplifying unhappiness? Modern self-help contains an inbuilt flaw. To continually improve yourself, you must continually locate the ways you are broken. Okay, okay. He gets so close.
I love so much of what he's saying, and then he totally misses the point. The point just goes right over his head. But he gets very close. And so I give him credit for the introspection. Some people are reading this cynically as him just doing a new kind of self-help. Has self-help ruined your life? Well, read my new book, 10 Easy Steps to Get Over Self-Help by Tim Ferriss. No, maybe not.
I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. I think maybe he's being sincere. He's in the middle of his life's journey. He's had this realization. He says, I think self-help can be a trap. That's true. The people who are most obsessed with self-help, in my experience, are the most messed up, depressed people. And you might say, well, yeah, they're messed up. They're trying to get help.
Well, it ain't working. You know, it's like your friend or relative who's been going to the therapist, usually just means drug dealer, but, you know, the psychiatrist for 30 years. They never get any better. And maybe they get more dope, but they don't ever get any better. And you say, hey, you know, have you thought about trying something different? You say, oh, I couldn't. I'm so messed up.
Could you imagine if I lost my psychiatrist? So maybe you're, ah, hold on. Maybe you're getting that backwards. Maybe your psychiatrist is actually not helping, maybe even compounding the problem. I think that's what happens with self-help, but not because of the reason Tim Ferriss says.
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