Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Your trusted home for news, sport, entertainment, opinion and Mike. The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Range Rover Sport. The most dynamic Range Rover Sport ever on Newstalk ZB. Well, you're welcome. Today, the Iran deal, the price of oil and the return to normality. We look at the specifics the finance minister in on the potential economic impact. We're in L.A., of course.
New Zealand kicks off this afternoon. Kerry Speckman, you're going to love him. Winner's formula is what it's called. He's worked with Lewis Hamilton. Jackie Stewart as well as the All Blacks. Joe McKenna covers the G7. Enda Brady covers Britain for us this morning.
Chapter 2: What are the main highlights of the Iran deal discussed in this episode?
Welcome to Tuesday, seven past six. So we got there, didn't we? We've got a deal. Iran is over, back to normality. Like most wars, you can spin it any way you want. In this case, the part that relief plays is not to be underestimated. This came out, of course, of nowhere.
On a Saturday morning when apparently Netanyahu and Rupert Murdoch, if you believe the story, said you will never get a better chance, Donald. All the heavyweights are meeting in the one place. Go get them. Broadly, it's been downhill for the Americans since.
The deal, if you look at Trump's video in that fateful day, tells us it'll be over quickly and the people can rise up and take their country back. Neither were true. The key line for Trump is now the nuclear weapon. Of course, they didn't have one anyway.
But whether this deal prevents one for eternity is not really answered, given an eternity is longer than a deal and certainly longer than a Trump presidency. Like most wars, it had complications. We only really became interested if it, you know, concerned the straight. And that suddenly became part of it. I mean, cut off the oil and the world shutters, hopefully.
Secondary pipelines and alternative supply chains will be a permanent feature moving forward. Relying on this part of the world clearly is madness. Netanyahu is the biggest loser. His dream is in tatters. He pretty much achieved nothing.
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Chapter 3: How does the economic impact of the Iran deal affect oil prices?
Lebanon's still a thing. Iran is still a thing. In fact, you could argue Iran are the real winners. They survived. They get to, well, rebuild money. There's no revolution. The strait can still technically be closed. They don't mind being bombed as much as the West might have thought they would.
It's hard to avoid the conclusion that this is yet another piece of American military adventurism that turned to custard. What they thought would happen didn't, or anywhere close. Over quickly? No. Regime change? No. Revolution? No. Nuclear threat mitigated? Maybe. When that's your brightest talking point in totality, this has been a failure.
News of the world in 90 seconds.
And our man is busy. 80 yesterday. Cage fight on the lawn. A deal with Iran. JD on the telly with a good vibe.
Really the last year and a half of Iran policy is to get us to a place where we could change our relationship fundamentally with the Iranians. But this is a big day for the American people. A big win for everybody who cares about basic peace and stability in the Middle East.
Don's in France for the G7 now. Host is Emmanuel. He likes the sound of it.
It's a very important one because first it will fix the nuclear issue and it will reopen almost. It will provide peace in Lebanon, but it's a very important step towards peace, but as well for global economy.
Don, having ticked that box, he's all about the other war now. We had a very good conversation yesterday with President Zelensky and President Putin. And I see maybe we can do something there. I really do. I think they're both open to it. Why doesn't he invite Putin to Alaska? Has anyone thought about that? As a result of all of this, oil is down a lot.
And bets are on us to win that straight as back to full operation. So the Strait of Hormuz is the gateway to the Persian Gulf. But right next door to it is the gateway to the Red Sea. And there was a sea spot ages ago there. And the rates of ships going through there have not got anywhere near to where they were before.
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Chapter 4: What are the implications of the G7 meeting for global politics?
So it recovered that. Core retail spending up 2.2%. Annual change 2.8%. Obviously inflation running a bit higher than that. Spending lifted across all categories except fuel. I'm putting glass half spin on this, glass half full spin on this, Mike.
I reckon if we a sustained fall in petrol prices, I reckon there's a reasonable shot that we'll see confidence return to consumer spending.
I'm on your bandwagon. What are the numbers? So here we go. The Dow Jones up 615 points, 1.2%, 51,817.
The S&P 500 up 128 points, 1.7%, 7559. And the NASDAQ just storming away.
I'm going to call it 3%. It's 2.99, but let's put a 3 on it. 772 points, 26,658 as I look at it. The English people didn't really get on that bandwagon either, though, Mike. They lost 41 points on the FTSE 100, 10,430. The Nikkei, though, up 3,297 points, 4.99%. Let's call that five. 69,317. Shanghai Comps it up 1.6% for a 9.6%.
Even the Aussies got in on the act. 1.25% gain on the ASX200 there. 8,914. Yes, but the New Zealand market, we're just not going to get excited about anything. The NZX50 down 0.25%, 13,360. Kiwi dollar, 0.5829 against the US, 0.8235 against the Aussie, 0.5025 euro, 0.4340 against the pound, 93.42 Japanese yen. Gold, $4,321. And as I said, Brent crude, $83.15. That is down around 5%.
Good on you, mate.
You have a good day. We'll see you tomorrow. Andrew Callagher, Shaw & Partners. From the TV world, Fox is buying the streaming firm Roku. Now, are Roku a big deal? Yes, they are. They are paying $22 billion USD for it. They're the biggest streaming platform for the smart tellies in the US.
More than a quarter of internet-connected devices are part of that particular deal, so Fox are on the move there. Speaking of streaming, HBO Max launches here today. We'll have more on that later, 6.21. You're at Newstalk ZB. The Mike Hosking Breakfast full show podcast on iHeartRadio, powered by Newstalk ZB.
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Chapter 5: How is social media influencing youth and public policy?
Which I said at the start of the show is not to be underestimated. 6.25. Trending now with Gamest Warehouse. Keeping Kiwis healthy all year round. Movie time. Horrors are hot right now. So the low-budget back... A bit of detail. The low-budget backrooms and obsession, if you know those names, Box Office Gold. So there are a couple of movies, right?
Combined budget to make those two movies, $18.5 million. Box Office returns $940 million. So that's not bad. So Netflix saw that and said, hello. We'll get on this bandwagon. So their latest is a thing called The Last House. Tells the story of a family suddenly sealed in their home with no way out. And there's a mysterious looming threat.
Hey, no scooter in the house.
Mom, mom, let's go. Go wait in the car.
Don't rush me. I'm not. I'm hiding from our children. It won't open. I think we're trapped in here. We're still dead. What the hell is going on? I don't know. But we are safe. I saw someone outside today.
What is something out there that's keeping us trapped?
What do we do? We can't help you. I'm sorry. Hide.
Is that it? Okay. It's out on Netflix August 7. I got my, what did I have locked out? What was the streaming service I was locked in? Prime Video. That got fixed. I won't tell you how it got fixed. It was a position of some privilege that I found myself in that allowed me to get it fixed. And if I wasn't in a position of privilege, it would never have been fixed.
So although I'm grateful, I shouldn't be because most people wouldn't get the problem solved. Anyway, I did get to Clarkson's Farm yesterday, which I think is better than what I just played you by way of a trailer. But that's just me.
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Chapter 6: What insights does Kerry Spackman offer about winning and success?
Mike, I put money on it. Israel's going to be a problem going forward. No, they're not. They're too reliant on America and Donald Trump's run out of patience. Mike, May's housing numbers down 13% on last year. I'll get to those numbers. I'm not sure you're right. What do you reckon? Market is crashing? No. And when do you reckon property doubles every 10 years? When does that return?
And do you remember that punchline? I reckon this is the single biggest reason the economy's in a funk. You raise an interesting point, and I have data on that for you shortly. 6.45. I'm great, Mike. How are you? I'm very well indeed. How many people are sending what to open the straight of a moose? Is everyone a bit upbeat about this or not?
Yeah, everyone seems to be jumping on the bandwagon. We've seen an agreement between, or a statement from the UK, France, Germany and Italy saying they're ready to lift sanctions, they want to get on board. And this is all very timely, of course, because the US President Donald Trump is at the G7 meeting in France and has just met French President Emmanuel Macron today.
And they're all very happy at the moment. So onwards.
Good. So there is a general acceptance because there's a little bit of pushback among some at the moment that we've been here before. I don't think we've been specifically where we are right now. A deal's been signed. A thing is opening on Friday. It seems sorted, doesn't it?
Well, it looks good. I think the big question is what can the US president do about Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu? And if we keep seeing military action in Beirut and around there in Lebanon, I think that might put at risk this whole deal. So we'll have to wait and see.
What's going to happen at the G7 now that this is seemingly sorted out? I know Trump was having a crack at France over wine and tech tariffs and all that sort of stuff. Is there anything material going to come out of this?
I'm reluctant to think that there will be. And there's a lot of speculation in the Italian press, at least, that this has become largely a ceremonial event because of Trump's dominance, his lack of interest in Europe, his provocations with NATO. So I think people are very sceptical that we're going to see very much. And we're going to see, of course, as you said, trade tensions.
And there's still a lot of issues around security issues.
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Chapter 7: How is the performance of the services sector impacting the economy?
So Brad Olsen has come to the party this morning as regards the bus stuff, along with Sam Warburton, his economist as well. So Labour claims the bus cap's going to be $65 million a year. Brad and Sam think it's more like $91 to $112 million. And it comes off the back of Barbara Edmonds' appearance on this program yesterday.
I haven't got to Ginny Anderson yet and her announcement, and I use the word announcement very loosely in the education sector. Wait till you hear the details in the story. It's sad and funny all at the same time. But back to Barbara. She didn't shock me. She disappointed me. We don't deal with people like Barbara on the program very often.
And I think increasingly less until the rules cut in, because if they're going to come on this programme and waste our time with the nonsense we got yesterday, why bother? We've got other things to do. When you're asked a simple question, where do you find $11 billion and you can't answer it, then why do I need to have you on the programme?
We've made a very conservative figure that we've estimated our capital gains tax off. Yeah, see, they said 3% or 4%. So this year, property's not going up 3% or 4%. Last year, it didn't go up 3% or 4%. The year before, it didn't go up 3% or 4%. Next year, it's probably not going to go up 3% or 4%. So there's your four-year window. Nothing's happened.
So where do they get their money from the capital gains tax? And that's what you're dealing with. But as I asked yesterday also on the program, do people care? Maybe you just hate the government and you want Labour back and you don't care what happens. Go ask the Poms and Sakiya Starmer. They planted him in office and they thought he was a good thing until he wasn't, five minutes away from seven.
All the ins and the outs. It's the biz. With Business Fiber, take your business productivity to the next level. Chicken wars. Fried chicken, we're talking about. KFC have announced some changes globally this morning. They've got more than 34,000 locations globally, but the share of the market's not too flash at the moment. In the US, they've got 9.4% of the market, the fried chicken market.
That's down from 16% five years ago. So they've got a turnaround plan. That involves a, quote, bold menu revamp. So they've gone boneless. They're expanding the boneless chicken options, deliberately moving away from chicken on the bone. You know, they had a meeting about that, and there's a whole bunch of Thai wearers around there going, what do you reckon we should do, Brian?
I reckon we should move away from chicken on the bone. They all had a vote and they thought that's a great idea. So they're also going to focus on the sauce. Got nine, count them, nine new sauces. And they're going to launch this in the UK and Ireland because, you know, what they're like over there, they eat anything. And if that works, they'll roll it out around the rest of the world.
They're also leaning in to the dunked. That's what you do when you've got a boneless piece of chicken and a lot of sauce. You've got to dunk it. So they're leaning into their dunked range. So they're going to feature your tenders, your wings, and your sandwiches. So you can dunk those. They might be winning me over, actually. I hate bony meat. And they're big on drinks.
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Chapter 8: What are the latest trends in consumer spending in New Zealand?
Good morning. You feeling good?
I am feeling good.
What about the deal?
Well, I'm not feeling so good about the deal. I think the deal is basically a way to paper over the strategic loss that we're really looking at here if you're the Trump administration.
I've come to the same conclusion. I can't work out what he's got. And I just wonder if the relief factor will potentially play well for him. In other words, we're just going, oh, thank God that's over.
I think that it's optimistic to think that the U.S. will feel gas price relief very quickly. It will take a while for the global systems to all sort of turn back on. So I think that's going to be a mirage on his side politically. And it's important to remember that what Iran has taken away from this is the regime can survive an attack from the greatest military in the world, right?
It's actually in a stronger position than it was prior to the war. It's more right-wing than it was. It's now more controlled by the IRGC. And it's learned that its nuclear program is not actually its chief leverage point. It's the Strait. And it now knows how to lever that. And it knows that it can do that, whatever the U.S. Navy decides to do.
Exactly. And given this is a memorandum of understanding how tricky are the next 60 days and what's the potential there for that to go wrong,
I think that if you're Iran, you have to flex your muscles. You have to wait 30, 40, 50 days and then find some reason to threaten shipping again, right? Launch a few drones or something like that and just indicate that you're in control. Because what we don't know, but I don't know any case, is the straight opening up in a way that allows Iran to essentially charge a toll for safe passage.
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