The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Mike's Minute: Can we stay optimistic over Ukraine?

10 Mar 2022

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This time last week I wrote about my optimism for Ukraine. We had seen the most astonishing global response to their plight. And for the first time in my lifetime a real coordinated, one hoped, tangibly successful series of responses designed to bring Russia if not to their senses, then to their knees. Parts of this week brought more hope with the US ban on oil. The UK and EU sort of joined in, they are phasing it out as opposed to cutting it. The US would not have done what they did unless they had intel that the moves so far were having genuine impact. It took most of the week for the stragglers to join the ban but eventually McDonalds, Coca-Cola, and Levi Strauss pulled the pin after it became too embarrassing not to. This little country, sadly, was left floundering. The Government, having repelled National's legislation on sanctions, then dreamed up their own. They called it "bespoke" and hoped we got sucked in by that. The fact is we didn't have sanction law because we are enamoured with the United Nations, who in scenarios like war are worse than useless. So, we ban Russian money, Russian oligarchs, and we might seize a boat. Yes, of course, it's window dressing, but at least we finally joined the rest of the world. But that appeared to be that, we will not be funding weaponry, despite the fact this is a once in a generation conflict that the rest of the planet is genuinely engaged in, as opposed to the usual mix of piecemeal gesture and hot air. If you missed it, listen to Wednesday's Nanaia Mahuta interview to see just why we are have responded so badly. There is no doubt this past week or so, the window has existed, and indeed still exists, for Ukraine to pull off a miracle. But, sadly, as each day passes and the exploits of the Russians gets worse. Whether it's bombing hospitals or shelling humanitarian corridors, that window is closing. And I wonder if, in this mad battle of "who blinks first,” whether the world is about to lose. America talked up back filling Poland's air force if they offered MiGs to Ukraine. Poland offered, the US balked, so not a good sign. A no-fly zone isn't happening, not that it could. But it looks increasingly likely that it’s the sort of thing that could tip the balance because as bogged down as Russia is, they're still moving towards the capital. In a battle of wills, the planet is engaged and in lockstep. But Russia is desperate, and desperate tends to win. The risk now is the world loses interest or draws a line in terms of help, and Ukraine is gone. It's still not over, but it's not as optimistic as it was a week ago.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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