The Munk Debates Podcast
Friday Focus: America's security guarantee is tested, while Canada's AI strategy comes up short
05 Jun 2026
Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What are the current tensions between Iran and the U.S. over the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran's strategy is drag this out virtually to the point of pain as long as it can. What that tells me, they believe they still have time.
Welcome to the Friday Focus podcast for the 5th of May 2025. I'm Rudyard Griffiths in studio with my co-host Janice Gross-Stein.
Hey Janice. Good morning Rudyard. It's a beautiful sunny.
It's been a scorcher of a week here in central Canada and a nice respite from a slow start to the spring and now it seems like we're in summer. We are. We are. Let's start the show, unfortunately, as we've had to for the last number of weeks, just catching our audience up on the events of the Iran-Israel-U.S. war.
I guess the latest news as we record Friday morning is a seeming indication, demand from the Trump administration that an agreement be signed in Geneva, no less. Next week, are we starting Janice to run out of time here? Is there a scenario where this, for either protagonist, has to be brought to some kind of step change to move out of this stasis of a
ceasefire that's not really a ceasefire, which is causing obviously big repercussions for both Iran and the United States? Or could this go on for weeks?
This could go on for weeks, Roger. You know, what's the deadlines here? I think that's a really great way to think about this. When does this absolutely have to come to an end? when Iran cannot store the oil on tankers that it is taking out of its wells. That's really the deadline here, and watch that. Because if it can't store the oil, it has to turn off the oil wells.
And once you do that, it can be a few years before you can restart them. And the costs to Iran of doing that are just huge. How many more rusty tankers can Iran find at this point? Because it's offloading oil into Karg Island. So estimates, there's no consistence here, but it's weeks and most a few more months. So there is that hard stop.
But Janice, a few more months out, we would be seeing, by every indication, oil at $150 to $200 a barrel, jet fuel drying up in Asia. There are now shortages of plastic bags and other plastic products in Japan. There's a lot of analysis to suggest literally the next few weeks could see that hockey stick chart emerge.
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Chapter 2: What pressure points could lead to negotiations between Iran and the U.S.?
Absolutely stunning comment because everywhere around the world, everywhere around the world, but obviously first and foremost in the Gulf states, what is the value of an American security guarantee? Right there. What is it?
If it only means we are going to get involved militarily when an American dies, when an American soldier dies, then it's not only the Gulf states, it's Japan, it's South Korea, it's all of Europe that heard that comment. And that to me is one of these moments where all of America's allies have to question the value of an American security guarantee under this president.
Yeah. I'm glad we both picked up on that because it was an aside, but I think it told a lot about – where this America First agenda is at internationally. And I think you're right, it has broad implications across the Gulf and internationally. Let's talk a little bit about the president's particular situation, because he is once again, you know, always kind of kicking the can forward.
You know, a deal is coming by this weekend. How many times have we heard that, it's clearly starting to lose credibility increasingly in the face of Iranian intransigence, in this case, the Iranian seemingly willingness to counterpunch when punched. What do you think's going on in the White House now?
And do you think that this talk about a signing ceremony in Geneva, I mean, again, it sounds preposterous, but at the same time, Surely, he is under pressure to understand that there are deadlines and that the Iranians are allowed to play this out.
The closer it gets to the midterms, the steeper the cost of him to restart the war, to try to degrade the Iranians more, to bring them back to the table on more favorable terms, time is working against him, not only economically, Janice, but clearly politically. So is there a possibility that this talk about Geneva isn't just another can-kicking exercise?
Oh, no, look, I think it has no credibility. I really don't. I would give that no weight whatsoever.
Yeah, but I guess I agree with you. I don't think there's going to be a signing ceremony. But in the escalation of the rhetoric about
the culmination of these negotiations being ratcheted up by this president this week and coming out of last week and now reaching this crescendo of like a formal signing ceremony in Geneva, are we at a point where we're starting to see a consensus about extending the ceasefire breakdown and the part of the White House, the decision makers, the U.S. security blob, as they call it?
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Chapter 3: How does the U.S. military response affect its security guarantees?
You've said that before. I certainly can't. But you would never expect this kind of behavior in June from a president who understands that we're, what, three months away from interns.
I think it's the summer driving season that's going to push energy costs up. Another strange set of remarks of the president in the last 24 hours or so, he indicated that he would be happy to meet with Iran's supreme leader and that if he met with him, he would be respectful.
And I thought it was a kind of interesting, because one story, and you're familiar with this, and I think there's some credence to this, is that Trump, what's happened to Trump here is that he and other real estate developers who've been at the forefront of this war, like Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, are kind of deeply perplexed by the Iranians. It's like oil and water. They
They know that the Iranians can make a deal, that there will be aspects of that deal that would be good for the Iranians, maybe the release of funds, sanction relief down the road. But, you know, the president wants the uranium. So what's the 400 kilos worth? $25 billion, $100 billion? Surely we can come to a deal here, gentlemen. This is like a building on Park Avenue or something.
But the Iranians don't play that way. So now he's engaging in this kind of language of almost like homage and respect to the – This dawn that I guess he now, this mafia dawn in Tehran that he seems to now be wanting to be respectful towards. What do you think that all is?
First of all, let's just talk about the practicalities of that for a second and then go to why I think he makes these comments. Really, I don't know at all. Practically, we know that Moshe Bechamani was badly injured. He has been in hiding. Trump killed his whole family. Killed his children, nieces, nephews, father. Everybody.
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Chapter 4: What is the significance of Iran's military actions against U.S. allies?
And he hasn't come out of hiding. And there's big debates. Is he alive or is he dead? And I think he's alive. Where would you meet him and how could he travel? He lost a leg. We know that for sure, right? So what world is this in now? What's going on in Trump's head? And every time I go there, I'm annoyed with myself afterwards because I've given up on doing that. But you captured it.
These guys are tough. They don't give in. I'm really surprised. I thought they would give in. These guys are tough. I respect tough guys. That's whom I respect. I respect guys who don't crumble. Oh, wow. I'd like to meet this guy.
Sorry. Maybe no more complicated than that. Let's just end this segment. There was a vote in Congress that basically required, in terms of the resolution, the withdrawal of American forces from the region, the end of hostilities against Iran. It passed the House with some Republican support.
It probably will face a much tougher climb in the Senate, and then ultimately the president can just veto it. He said it was inconsequential. Was it inconsequential?
No, it's not inconsequential for a number of reasons. First of all, Congress does have a constitutionally mandated role here. And only in Donald Trump's world is that inconsequential. But beyond that, Rudyard, it tells me something. Who are these Republicans? There's some traditional Republicans. I don't know what you want to call them, centrist Republicans. But they...
When an outrage is particularly offensive, they in the past would vote with Democrats. But there's more than that going on here. There are Republicans who are now voting with Democrats who lost primary challenges, who are not embedded any longer at the heart of Trump's circle of fear in the Republican Party. They have nothing to lose now when they vote against the president.
These Republican voters that we saw in the House, and there's some in the Senate too, right? They will use their voice until the midterms and in the lame duck session. We're beginning to see a different Congress that Donald Trump is not used to managing.
Right. Well, Janice, let's say goodbye to our complimentary listeners and viewers. Going to join Monk Donors on the other side of this short break to break down Canada's new AI strategy, the good, the bad, the ugly strategy. Hang out with us as a Monk donor. You can become one right now. www.munkdebateswithans.com All kinds of different membership levels and perks.
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