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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
This is a global production.
He's turning on reform that they can't now win by elections. They've reached probably the peak of their support and it's going down.
He is furious with the way that Burnham is behaving.
Chapter 2: How did Andy Burnham achieve a significant victory in the Makerfield by-election?
He doesn't believe that he's serious. He doesn't believe that his policies are serious. He doesn't believe that he's got a real program. He thinks he's just vibes.
We found one person, weirdly, who liked Keir Starmer so much they were voting reform.
Force a contest where everyone is ripping each other apart and for which I suspect the Labour Party will find very little forgiveness from the electorate.
And I mean it. The word make a field in the future must be known as a byword for the change that came to British politics. This is the moment.
Chapter 3: What are Keir Starmer's reactions to Burnham's victory and its implications?
We've been on a path for 40 years that simply hasn't worked. for people and places in this part of the world. And this now is the change moment. We have an opportunity to turn the tide, to make the country feel like it's working again, to make people see that politics can make a positive difference, to make people feel hope again.
That is the main thing I think we need in this country right now, for people to feel a sense of hope.
Get used to that voice, because you might just be listening to Britain's next Prime Minister. Andy Burnham won more votes last night than all the other parties put together. Does that make his rise to the top job now look inevitable?
Well, not if Keir Starmer has his way. He has warned that a leadership challenge will tear apart our country and our movement. But 100 Labour MPs have now publicly called on him to go. Is anyone listening to the Prime Minister anymore? Welcome to the Newsagents.
Chapter 4: Why is the Labour Party facing challenges after the by-election results?
The Newsagents.
It's John.
It's Meatless.
It's Lewis. And Andy Burnham, as you will have heard already, didn't just win the Makerfield by-election. He stormed the Makerfield by-election. He exceeded all expectations, frankly, of what most analysts and his fellow politicians and Labour Party members thought was possible. Just to run you through the figures. Burnham got nearly 25,000 votes.
That is an absolute majority of those who voted of nearly 55%. That is up 10%, nearly 10 percentage points, on the general election performance. Now, bear in mind that the general election performance obviously took place in the context of an overall Labour landslide.
And this by-election, two years later, is taking place in the context of Labour being at their lowest sustained point in the polls in living memory, arguably ever. And so for Burnham to achieve that, to face those political headwinds in a seat which reformed, don't listen to their spin this morning. They're saying, oh, it was always been a Labour seat. This was always a tough battle for us.
It was their 13th target seat. They barely needed much of a swing at all to take it. where Labour nationally, as I say, is doing so badly. I think it is proof positive, proof of concept, that only Andy Burnham, with his peculiar and particular political profile and political purchase in that part of the world, could have won it. Remember, one other fact.
Only six weeks ago, six weeks ago, in this same constituency, in these same wards, Reform got over 50% of the vote. Six weeks later, just after the Labour Party was wiped out, Burnham, as I say, is getting 50%. It is a 23-point swing.
And this is why Labour MPs, who only six weeks ago had something of a near-death sort of political experience, they're now looking at Burnham and thinking, my word, have we actually found the medicine?
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Chapter 5: What does Burnham's success indicate about the future of the Labour Party?
So interesting. It's like you have been very naughty boys and girls. You should not have voted Restore. You should have voted Reform. And I won't have put up with it for any longer. And look, you know, the line from The Italian Job comes to mind about what Andy Burnham did last night, which is, you know, you were meant to blow the bloody doors off. And Andy Burnham, you know, took it apart.
And I think that this kind of... If you were to do the compare and contrast essay question that you get in your A-levels or, you know, university, compare and contrast what happened when Keir Starmer was at the head of the ticket in the local council elections to when Andy Burnham was on the ticket in this make a field by election. And you can see the difference and you can see why.
It's probably a forlorn hope of the prime minister to say, look, the last thing the country needs now is a leadership contest. It will be divisive. It will ruin the party. I think we've gone past that. I think the fact that, you know, you think how many people can't put their name to a petition? in Parliament calling for Keir Starmer to go because they're part of the payroll vote.
They're the parliamentary undersecretary. They're the minister of state. They're the secretary of state. They're the parliamentary private secretary. Whatever it happens to be, they can't do it without being forced to resign. So you've got 100 backbench MPs who've now come forward And said, it is time for Starmer to go.
And I don't know how you staunch that bleeding with a message that seems to be. And this is what he said on a call to party workers was, look, we're turning the corner. There are green shoots coming. We think reform have peaked. And that may be true. But, you know, just stick with me. And the fact of the matter is, it was Makerfield and Burnham that showed the difference.
John, you don't even need to go back to the local elections, even though they're only six weeks ago. You could say that we had some controlled experiments even last night, because, of course, we didn't just have one by-election in Makerfield. We also had two by-elections in Scotland, one in Arbroath and one in Aberdeen. In both cases, obviously...
Andy Burnham was not on the ballot in those constituencies. In effect, the Keir Starmer Labour Party was on the ballot in those constituencies. And in both places, Labour got absolutely smashed in two constituencies that actually they were quite competitive in in the general election. Now, you might say Aberdeen particular circumstances around oil and gas. But look at Arbroath again.
I mean, Labour absolutely, you know, we're only within about a thousand votes overall. of taking that seat in a place that Labour did very well in 2024. And when Keir Starmer said, and I think we can hear the clip now, when Keir Starmer says that reform has peaked, if he's looking at Makerfield, there is a very clear reason why reform has peaked. And it's not called Keir Starmer.
It's called Andy Burnham. Listen to this.
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Chapter 6: How do other parties' performances reflect on the current political landscape?
And look, we're playing that because there are so many questions for Andy Burnham right now. You could add another dozen of them. Andy, what's your policy on defence? Andy, what's your policy on the economy? Andy, what do you feel about the bond markets? And on and on and on, because there's so much we do not know about Andy Burnham and where he stands.
And whether he's got a worked out manifesto at the moment, he might look like the saviour of the Labour Party and this government. But there is still huge unanswered questions about what his policies would be, what he would do, what the shape of the government would be, who would get jobs and all the rest of it. And I think that this is the territory we're now in.
You said just before the break, Emily, about. whether we're just talking about the choreography now. I think we are. I mean, history teaches us that, you know, when Thatcher said she was going to fight, she did until she wouldn't fight. We saw that with Boris Johnson until there were the resignations. You know, Keir Starmer is at that point now where no one has resigned today.
So far, it's ten past two in the afternoon. But it could happen.
Yeah, but there's a lot going on in that just because there are all sorts of different theories doing the rounds at the moment. I mean, I was told at the weekend by somebody who was fiercely loyal to Keir Starmer that if Andy Burnham thinks he's going to get a coronation, then this person said, I'm going to throw my hat into the ring and make a tit of myself, myself.
In other words, they're not going to let it happen. There is a thought, I think, from Sam Coates, who was suggesting, Sam Coates of Sky News, who was suggesting...
that Keir Starmer was actually trying to encourage members of the cabinet, maybe MPs loyal to him, to go with Wes Streeting to get Wes's numbers up to 81, at which point Wes is the one that triggers the contest, which Keir Starmer obviously can fight from a position of not having started anything. He doesn't need the 81 himself.
I've talked to members of the cabinet who say that doesn't sound very much like Keir, but we'll wait and see. I think Andy Burnham clearly wants this to be a kind of Well, you know, the Damascene conversion will happen. He'll see the light. He'll make way for me and I will sort of sweep in there and I won't have to do any of the heavy lifting.
Keir Starmer has made clear he's not going and actually could win from a messy contest. In other words, the more people come in, the more people kind of go, oh, my God, this is horrible. We don't want to look like the Conservatives. The last thing we want is to look like an immature party in government. Let's just stop this there and carry on doing what we're doing.
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Chapter 7: What strategies might Burnham employ if he becomes Prime Minister?
They don't really know him. But he has right now got that momentum. I mean, the thing is, is that, you know, you're right, Emily. Look, we should give the prime minister some credit. There are lots of things that are going well. There are lots of things that are going in the right direction.
You know, I've been the first one to sometimes sort of criticise him for being a sort of bit of a technocrat. But there are technocratic, incremental things that are happening and are going in the right direction. What I think the Labour, your average Labour MP, your median Labour MP fears is that those achievements are just not being heard. Such is the dislike of the prime minister himself.
And I think one of the tough things for Keir Starmer to confront is that it is true. And again, I'll be the first to say, look, We don't know what Burnhamism is. We don't know how Manchesterism really translates to anything, particularly in an era of straitened circumstances where we've got the bond market situation that it's in.
But I think we can say that right now, I think this is the conclusion that even fans of Burnham within the PLP are not necessarily coming to. Burnham is the superior politician to Keir Starmer. He just is. He has more political range. He has more political chops. He has more political skills. He has an ability to connect and emote.
Also, if you just think that the existential question is about reform. Yes. Then he is quite clearly the man who knows how to. And let's not forget.
Keir Starmer was the one who set that up as the essay question. Remember back at Labour Party conference last year in Liverpool? He was the one who said this is going to be a Labour reform fight. And it's the fight of our lives. And so far, Keir Starmer has a very poor track record in beating reform. And Andy Burnham, yes, it's just one constituency. But my word, what a tough constituency.
What an extraordinary feat. Personal political vindication for him.
So if you're a new MP, frankly, if you're a new Labour MP. Why wouldn't you roll the dice? Well, why wouldn't you think I have more chance of keeping my seat? I mean, frankly, Josh Simons, it turns out, was incredibly popular in his seat in Makerfield and probably could have won and clung on there, even with a sort of reform tide.
But I think if you're a newer MP now, you're thinking, I want the guy who's just got his messaging right. And this is again what came out of the focus group. It's not that people want personality, but they want somebody who can deliver their message.
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Chapter 8: How could a leadership contest impact the Labour Party's stability?
Well, he hasn't won yet.
No.
I mean, he doesn't really want to be the MP for Makerfield.
But that's why I think it's unlikely that Keir Starmer is going to say to Andy Burnham, oh, look, can you just leave it a year or so? And maybe we'll come back to it then. OK, here's one question. He's got the momentum now.
Just let's play, you know, fantasy football for five seconds. Fantasy cabinet, right? Is there a world in which... Andy Burnham does win the top job and gets Keir Starmer back in a role like ForeignSec. Like the David Cameron role?
He might do. My instinct is that he would want to send a signal that there's been change and that he'd want to... And keeping Starmer even in the foreign affairs job. I mean, maybe if it was the price of Starmer going quietly, maybe he'd do that. Who knows? Maybe it's something... Starmer's also a really proud man. Maybe it's actually something he wouldn't really want to count as.
We just can't know, can we? But I think that, you know, ultimately... what Burnham has got to try and do now is that he's got to show the Labour Party or start to demonstrate to the Labour Party that what happened in Makerfield isn't just a one-off. Because it is true to say that there were... I mean, what Burnham can no longer do, or at least it will be hard for him to do...
If he becomes prime minister, it is much harder to run the idea of being an insurgent. You know, he will be the Labour Party brand. You know, what he was doing in Makerfield was running against, full square, the Labour Party brand. Those two things will be fused. Now, it's possible, I think he might, if he were very skilful.
be able to perfect a sort of politics where he does maintain somehow a sense of a little bit of distance with Westminster and the way things are done. If he can come up with enough ideas and affect a style which is substantially different to politicians that we've seen before, it's possible he might be able to maintain some of that. But he can't stand...
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