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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Pat Kenny Show. With Timber Living Log Cabins. Saturday and Sunday from 10am. On Newstalk. Conversation that counts. After months of conflict and rising tensions in the Middle East, there are growing signs that a deal between the United States and Iran may be within reach.
Reports suggest an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address concerns over Iran's nuclear programme could be signed in the coming days, although confusion remains over exactly what's been agreed. That all said, we've been here before and joining us now with the very latest is Mark Weiss. He's the Israel correspondent with the Irish Times. Mark, you're very welcome to the programme.
And look, given Trump's penchant for making big statements on Iran, I think a lot of us were very sceptical. But we now have statements from the Iranian foreign minister, from the Pakistani prime minister who is involved in these negotiations that a deal is close.
Chapter 2: What signs indicate a potential deal between the US and Iran?
Do you get a sense, Mark, that this time it is different, that we will get a deal over the line in the coming days?
I would probably say there's more optimism now than at any time in the past over the ongoing negotiations. But still, it must be stressed, still no deal and still no confirmation from the sides that final agreement has been agreed to on a text even. What's at stake here is a memorandum of understanding.
to be signed between the sides, if you like, a framework agreement during which a 60-day ceasefire will be observed. The Strait of Hormuz will be opened pretty quickly, as will the US lifting its sanctions on Iranian ports. During this 60-day ceasefire, negotiations will take place on the more contentious issues
such as Iran's nuclear-enriched substances, what will happen to them, Iran's capacity to enrich uranium in the future, what will happen with Lebanon, what will happen with Iranian proxies, etc., etc. So there's a lot of subjects that will be discussed, and we can expect very intense discussions negotiations during this 60-day period.
Now, it's interesting because on state media in Iran, there was this 14-point deal that was published that talked about the ceasefire, but also talked about sanctions relief for Iran, the release of frozen assets and economic reconstruction support and reduced US military pressure in the area. Now, Trump himself said this document bears no relation to
So where do you think the biggest differences appear to be? Where is the most acute conflict?
There are differences between the two sides on almost every single issue to tell you the truth.
um the question of sanctions release is one of them it's absolutely critical for the iranian regime their economy is in a catastrophic situation it was bad enough before the war now it's even worse significantly worse the west focuses on the economic impact of the closure of the strait of hormuz on western economies the price of oil increasing inflation etc but it's also disastrous for the iranian regime
They need those funds unfrozen and released as quickly as possible to help the Iranian economy, to help the regime. The Trump administration says there will be sanctions release, but not on the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, only when Iran has implemented concrete measures on the questions such as removing the nuclear enriched substances.
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Chapter 3: What are the main components of the proposed ceasefire agreement?
So very important differences on that issue, as indeed with every other issue.
So Iran, I know, believe that public opinion in the United States favours de-escalation. That is clear. And Trump himself needs this very visible diplomatic success, given how unpopular this war is. Do you think Iran will capitulate around nuclear verification, around allowing inspections from Washington on this issue?
They will certainly try not to during the negotiations. The Iranians are known to be expert at drawn out negotiations. Remember the very significant nuclear agreement that was reached with the Trump administration took two years of negotiations before a deal was reached. Iran also realizes that the Trump administration will not be there forever. They may well be seeking to
um extend these new negotiations also for repeated around about two years which will bring them very close to the end of the trump administration and it's the feeling of not only iran but also israel and many in this region but that a future us administration will not be um
as eager to engage iran militarily and this may be the negotiating policy of the regime here in israel there is a great concern that if capitulation takes place it will be on the side of donald trump he said yesterday that um iran has agreed never to have a nuclear bomb
But as far as Israel is concerned, this is not even a concession because Iran has always claimed that they don't seek a nuclear bomb. But as far as Israel is concerned, and most, I think, Western intelligence agencies, Iran clearly is moving in the direction of acquiring a nuclear bomb. And it will need concrete steps plus a robust inspection regime in order to satisfy Israel on this point.
Mark, if this deal does move forward and you say this is probably the most optimistic we have been over the last couple of months, where does that leave Israel and Lebanon? Is that the real test in all of this?
It's another very important element that we don't know what the details of the emerging agreement will say. At the moment, we are in a situation where Israel has agreed not to attack Beirut, Hezbollah targets in Beirut. In response, Hezbollah has promised via Iran not to launch projectiles into Israel proper, but they can continue fighting against Israeli troops in Lebanon.
Iran has successfully linked the two fronts. the Gulf War and what's happening in Lebanon during these negotiations. Iran claims that Israel will have to pull out totally from South Lebanon in order for there to be an agreement. Israel says this is not the case and troops will remain in South Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed.
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