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Chapter 1: What recent developments have occurred in US-Iran relations?
Now we're going to the developments internationally now.
A ceasefire between Washington and Tehran appears to have created a diplomatic opening. Both sides agreeing to further talks over Iran's nuclear programme. and the future relations between their two countries. And Witkoff is on his way to Switzerland to start the technical aspect of those talks. But whether he is equipped to so do is another question entirely.
Most critics argue that the agreement leaves many of the most difficult questions unanswered, while others are questioning whether the ceasefire can actually survive all the political pressures in Israel, Iran, and in the United States. But it's interesting that during the week, at a press briefing in the White House on Wednesday, the U.S. Vice President, J.D.
Vance, did something that very few American politicians ever do, and that is he criticized Israel. Specifically, he criticized members of the Israeli government for attacking President Trump over the U.S.-Iran agreement. And don't forget, this is a man who is a heartbeat away from the presidency.
I saw the Axios report that Netanyahu is fuming. That's not reflective of the conversations that I've had with him, but maybe he's saying something to somebody else that he's not saying to me.
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Chapter 2: How does the ceasefire impact Iran's nuclear negotiations?
What I will say, and this does bother me, is that you've seen people within Bibi's cabinet who have come out and attacked the deal, and in some ways very personally attacked the President of the United States. And I guess my message to them would be twofold. Number one, Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time.
And he happens to be the head of state of the world's superpower. If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.
And the second message I would give to some of those cabinet members, Bibi, to his credit, has not gone down this path, but to some of these cabinet members in Israel who are attacking the President of the United States, the other thing that I would say is that over the last three months,
Two thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars. The problem for Israel is not Donald J. Trump. And anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in.
a very stark threat to Israel. Don't forget who's paying the bill. Don't forget who's making and providing the weaponry that you have at your disposal to defend your territory. Well, to help us make sense of where things stand, I'm joined now by Gerry Arthurs, lecturer in international relations and politics at Southeast Technological University. Gerry, good morning.
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Chapter 3: What political pressures could affect the ceasefire's longevity?
Good morning, Pat. Delighted to be here. Interesting to hear that statement from Vance. It's very stark and it's telling the Israelis what many people internationally have been saying to them but very few in the United States have articulated.
Indeed, but J.D. Vance seems to be backing up President Trump himself, who has been publicly critical of Bibi in the last week or so. And he referred to Hezbollah's attacks as being a pinprick this week. And you can imagine how that went down with Israeli political opinion. Bibi's in a bit of a bind. If he undermines the deal, he's going to alienate Vance and Trump.
But it's a deeply unpopular memorandum of understanding. across the vast swathe of political opinion in Israel.
Now, at the moment, there are still exchanges of fire in the territory of Lebanon itself. And we're not sure whether these are just the, if you like, the dying embers of the conflict because they have agreed a ceasefire or whether or not this is a deliberate provocation by the Israelis hoping that they'll get a response that will scupper the deal.
Chapter 4: How is Israel responding to the US-Iran agreement?
Well, the US military intelligence anticipate that Israel will continue attacks to try to provoke Hezbollah. And remember that Israel and Hezbollah are not signatories to the MOU. So it remains to be seen how that, like, for example, Israel have indicated that they are not going to withdraw from southern Lebanon, which is going to remain a running sore in the next 60 days of these negotiations.
Now, the situation that President Trump finds himself in with oil prices and therefore prices at the pump very high in the United States and that contributing to inflation. I mean, he said famously a week and a half ago, I love inflation. I mean, what kind of a daft thing it was to say and a red rag to many of the Republicans who don't want to have to fight on that particular plank.
So all of this is a desperate attempt to get prices at the pump down in time for the midterms. Absolutely.
The timing of this is actually really, really bad for Trump. And you mentioned Trump's comments about inflation, but he also said that he signed this MOU to try to avoid economic catastrophe. Therefore, Iran knows that this is an almost economic sword of Damocles hanging over the talks, that if they close the strait again, it's plunging the West and the U.S. into more economic turmoil.
Plus also it's a 60-day timeframe, which brings us to the middle of August. Iran knows that Trump is not going to resume bombing in August in the run-up to the midterm elections next November. So in terms of Trump always talks about having cards.
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Chapter 5: What role does US military intelligence play in the situation?
Iran has a lot of new cards that it didn't really have It didn't know it had them. It didn't know. It's discovered this wonderful mechanism of closing the strait as a choke point to try to put pressure, economic and political pressure, not only on the US and Europe, but on the Gulf allies as well.
In terms of his own political support, they tend to watch television and follow social media in an echo chamber. They only follow the people who are going to say what they want to hear. But even news media like Fox News are challenged by this deal in trying to pretend that it's something that is good for America.
Yeah, and we're seeing a fracturing of his MAGA base around this. So, Megyn Kelly, Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and many members of Congress now are speaking out against this deal, particularly the Iran hawks. They're not happy because, basically, this MOU does nothing to address the pre-conflict issues. It does nothing with regard to its interests.
They're stated but very vague aims about getting rid of Iran's missiles, about regime change. So it leaves an awful lot of negotiations to be done in the next 60 days. And it's highly unlikely that they're going to reach anything going near the JCPOA from 2015.
Now, it's very interesting when you think of the Obama deal, which was the original cessation of nuclear development by Iran, which was scuppered by Trump once he was elected to the White House for his first term.
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Chapter 6: What economic factors are influencing the US-Iran talks?
No matter what emerges from this, it will be compared to the Obama deal, will it not?
Absolutely. And remember, the JCPOA stands for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Many people don't remember that there was an interim POA, Plan of Action, in 2013. And it took a further two years of negotiations, very complex technical negotiations, by a very well-staffed State Department that has been hollowed out by the Trump administration.
So to try to achieve in the next 60 days anything approaching JCPOA.
But this had to be comprehensive. It was comprehensive because it had international agreement. The International Atomic Agency were going to be involved in all of this to make sure the Iranians didn't misbehave. And it would appear that until Trump scuppered it, that they weren't misbehaving.
Absolutely. And it involved a wide European and international caucus. And remember that in the JCPOA, it limited Iran's nuclear materials to 300 kilograms, that they couldn't enrich it beyond 3.7 percent. And 97 percent of their stocks were actually moved outside of Iran over to Russia. He pulled out in 2018 in his first term.
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Chapter 7: How does the JCPOA compare to the current negotiations?
And by January of this time of this year, they had increased from 300 kilograms to 440 kilograms. They had enriched up to 60 percent. And that was giving the Americans that kind of template. Well, if they get to 90 percent, they'll have that nuclear capability. So by pulling out of the JCPOA, Trump was essentially storing up this problem for himself.
Now, there's a lot of talk about the money that will be forthcoming. And Vance and Trump himself have said not one American dollar is going to be paid to the Iranians. I mean, mostly what they wanted initially was to get their own money back, money that's been frozen. They wanted access to that. They've got that under this deal.
They're also going to get a 300 billion fund, which Trump says won't be paid for by America. It'll be others, the Gulf states. I don't know how they feel about that. But one way or the other, it seems like the Iranians are winners. Absolutely.
Chapter 8: What are the potential consequences of the ceasefire on regional stability?
They are going into this with much greater strategic benefits. The 300 billion that you talk about is expected, according to Trump, to be paid for by Gulf allies who have been attacked by Iran in the last number of months. What's in it for them? Absolutely.
Not to be attacked.
And in terms of Dubai and places like this, whose tourism industry has been decimated and seen as a kind of a safe haven in the Gulf states, that's been decimated as well. So in terms of what the, under JCPOA, Iran got access to about $55 billion.
Now in this reconstruction fund, they're going to have $300 billion, plus also from today, from this weekend, they are able to export their oil and petroleum products, which will enable them to earn much greater revenue from a much wider range of... And tariffs are removed. Absolutely.
And they are also saying that they are not going to go back to a pre-war position where the Strait of Hormuz is toll-free. Trump is making a lot of talk about this toll-free status. Iran has made it very, very clear. They've set up the PGSA, this authority to charge environmental and administrative fees for any tankers going through the Straits of Hormuz, another revenue generator for Iran.
What's the relationship between Oman and Iran in that case? Because it's got to be a joint authority.
Well, that's the supposition. Now, obviously, Trump is going to try to avert that during the talks. But Iran wants to kind of broaden it out to give it a little bit more legitimacy in terms of transit through the Strait of Hormuz. And remember, with this knowledge now that they can close down that strait, its proxies, for example, the Houthis in Yemen.
can close off other choke points into the Red Sea.
So they can kind of see that other accelerations of this kind of transit can... There are plans, though, by Gulf states to build pipelines that would bypass the Straits of Hormuz. And I think there are pipelines already that bypass the Red Sea. I suspect, though, pipelines are incredibly vulnerable in wartime. Absolutely.
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