Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
What's happened in the derivatives market for Bitcoin leaves me much more bullish.
Chapter 2: What is Matthew Sigel's perspective on AI stocks and market dynamics?
Another thing that's happened is the OG selling. Some of that selling has eased up. You know, we're still bullish, but we haven't added maybe as much as you might expect, given that kind of respect the cycle, respect the four year cycle.
Chapter 3: How are Bitcoin miners adapting to the AI pivot?
What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great conversation with Matthew Siegel. He is the head of digital asset research at VanEck, and he's also the portfolio manager of Node, an ETF that's focused on beating Bitcoin with lower volatility. In this conversation, we do a little around the world.
Chapter 4: What investment opportunities are emerging from the intersection of energy and AI?
What's going on in terms of all of the AI, ROIC on CapEx? what's going on with the Strait of Hormuz and the war in Iran. And then how's he thinking about investing?
Chapter 5: How do global conflicts influence market dynamics and investments?
And we go name by name by name of all the things he's excited about, maybe some of the things that he's not excited about. And my guess is that we're going to talk about multiple things that are in your portfolio or things that you've considered putting in your portfolio. And so here you go.
Here is one of Wall Street's smartest guys who's going to explain his current views on all these different names. And he did it all for you. Here's my latest conversation with Matthew Siegel.
Chapter 6: What role does AI play in the crypto and defense tech sectors?
All right, Matt, I thought a great place to start the conversation. Artificial intelligence stocks and market in general are very, very heavily debated right now.
Chapter 7: What is the outlook for Bitcoin treasury companies?
You were telling me an interesting anecdote that inside of VanEck, you guys basically were like at the buffet. You were using every single model. You were trying to automate a bunch of stuff. Now you're consolidating, and it sounds like maybe you're bullish on stocks but maybe bearish on some of the private companies. Is that fair?
Chapter 8: How is Matthew Sigel positioning his portfolio in crypto and equities?
Yeah.
So the internal debate among VanEck PMs is very fierce right now, both on the war and the return on capital from AI CapEx. I think those are the two biggest things that are facing the market right now. Is Hormuz going to open and what does that mean for the energy complex versus everything else? And then...
Mag7 underperforming, most of those stocks below their 200 days now, and the market's demanding a return on this CapEx. Is that return going to come through cutting heads or are there profit dollars that can materialize?
Where do you stand on the AI CapEx?
I mean, I lean bullish just because of my own internal productivity, where I'd say we've been able to not hire folks because of the work that my new analyst, Claude, is doing, especially when I integrate him into Excel. That's been a very powerful unlock. So at the firm level, Jan Van Eck really embraced AI from the moment ChatGBT was released, and we started licensing all of the models.
In the last few weeks, we've consolidated our budget around Anthropic, and we are beginning to aggressively build agents to automate some of the back office work. I think our agents are going to get a 401k match at some point.
So, you know, given that my fund being crypto oriented and the Bitcoin miners are a big part of my benchmark, those companies are really the tip of the sphere in terms of this AI CapEx trend because they're levered. They have to sell Bitcoin to fund their repurposing of the data centers. And there's one data set that I've been looking at, which is what is the
dollars per megawatts of these leases that are being signed by Cypher, by Iron, by Terrawolf. And each time we see a new lease, that number is going up. And if you look at the rental costs for Nvidia chips on the spot market, those numbers are also going up. So I think the stocks are down 40% from the peaks. It doesn't feel like a time to be selling.
I'm definitely managing position sizes, but I come out bullish because I can feel the productivity in my own work.
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