The Pomp Podcast
Is the Fed About to Trigger the Next Bitcoin Boom? | Anthony & John Pompliano
09 Dec 2025
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
What's up, everyone?
Chapter 2: What are the potential outcomes of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting?
This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn.
So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments.
All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.
What's going on guys? Today in this conversation with John Pompliano, we talk about what's gonna happen at the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow.
Chapter 3: How does Bitcoin's monetary policy differ from the Fed's approach?
Is it gonna be 25 basis points? Should it be 50 or should it be zero? We're gonna dig into all that. We also talk about what's going on with Bitcoin's price and how Bitcoin's monetary policy is very unique and is creating a lot of change in the world that people are just now starting to understand.
And then lastly, we talk about all the Bitcoin miners and how they're transitioning into AI infrastructure providers and why they're doing it, how they're doing it.
Chapter 4: What does the future hold for economic data analysis?
And what is one of the biggest mistakes I ever made in my investing career almost a decade ago now and why I'm cool with it and how that thing really taught me so much about investing. All that and more in this conversation with John Pompliano. All right, John, what's the first topic?
Chapter 5: How might quantitative easing impact asset prices?
FOMC meeting this week. 25 bips, 50 bips, zero bips. What do we get? Are we getting a cut? Well, first, let's go to the tape. We can look at the prediction markets. Polymarket has 25 basis points at 95%. Clear winner.
Chapter 6: Why are Bitcoin miners transitioning to AI infrastructure?
The market thinks 25 basis points. If you look at no change, it's actually at 5%. And then a 50 basis point cut is less than 1%. So people obviously think it's going to be a 25 basis point cut, and they're more likely that there's going to be no cut than there would be a 50 basis point cut. Now, why is that all important?
I think that there are three main things that warrant a much more aggressive cut than maybe people are expecting. I do not believe they're going to do a 50 basis point cut, but I want to lay out the argument for a 50 basis point cut. The first thing is that the labor market has been weakening. We know that there are layoffs.
We are now seeing layoffs that level as high as we saw back in 2020 during the pandemic. So over the last five or six years, this is the worst that the layoff numbers have been since 2020. If we go and we look at the hiring numbers, like net new hiring, this is the worst that it's been since the global financial crisis at the end of that in 2010. So we know that those two things, lots of layoffs,
Not a lot of hiring. That's not good. On top of that, there's a lot of speculation about AI and all this stuff. It's just that companies are becoming more efficient and they're becoming more productive, and so they need less employees. But also, you're starting to see entry-level jobs. Those people are not necessarily in it. They don't have a lot of experience. They don't have a lot of skills.
So that's kind of the first thing that gets picked off by AI is AI can replace somebody who's not a lot of experience, not a lot of skills. Duh. So I think the labor market weakening is kind of a really, really big point. Now, we know that somebody like Stephen Myron, he is very focused on the weak labor market and being able to cut rates 50 basis points, he think can kind of get ahead of that.
Because the problem with a weak labor market is not just the numbers you're seeing now, it is the trend and it's getting worse, it's degrading over time. If it's gonna get worse, then the way you stop that and potentially reverse it is you get ahead. You're more aggressive and you try to stem the bleeding, right? It's kind of like if there's a car crash, right?
And you come up and there's a victim on the floor and they're bleeding, rule number one, check that they're breathing. Rule number two, stop the bleeding. Everything else comes after, make sure they're breathing and stop the bleeding. Those two things. Well, we know the US economy's breathing, right? We pulse check it, like stock market's doing just fine. So now we gotta stop the bleeding.
Well, where's the bleeding happening? The bleeding is happening in things like the job market. And so that's really, really important for us to be able to kind of address. Now, the second thing that I think is really important here is that we know that there is inflation measured by the government.
core pce inflation is at three percent we know that there is uh things like the cpi around three percent true inflation is showing closer like 2.4 2.5 percent so when you look at those numbers you say to yourself well if the government number of inflation is at three percent and the target is two percent we have high inflation it's fifty percent higher one percent hundred basis points higher than the target
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Chapter 7: What lessons can be learned from past investment mistakes?
That is a deflationary component to it. The second thing is gas prices. So gas prices have been coming down. It is estimated that we are going to get about a 3% reduction, that's about 11 cents or so, in the actual price of gasoline between 2024 and 2025. That's a reduction. Well, what happens when you reduce the cost of gasoline?
Right now it's estimated that the average family is gonna save 150 bucks a year on fuel. Any business that is reliant on gasoline as an input cost, guess what? They're going to get lower input costs into their business, which makes them more profitable, should drive growth, et cetera. So there's disinflationary type of forces at play in those inflation numbers. What does that do?
That opens up the opportunity for the Fed to be more aggressive in terms of rate cuts.
Chapter 8: How does the market react to Bitcoin compared to traditional monetary policy?
And so if you look at those two things, you've got a weakening labor market and you've got an inflation formula of inflation mixture that has a lot of room for them to cut rates without worrying about sky-high inflation or any sort of like runaway inflation. So those two things kind of set the framework. The third thing, I mentioned there was three things.
The third thing, there is a lot of dissent within the Federal Reserve. It is no longer taboo to say I disagree. In 35 years, we have not seen what we're seeing right now, which is the following. We have people who are saying, okay, the market's telling us 25 basis points. We have some people who are dissenting to more aggressive interest rate cut. Stephen Myron, he wants 50 basis points.
We've also seen the John Williams, the Mary Daly's, et cetera, right? New York and San Francisco Fed presidents. They're saying, hey, I'm more on the looser monetary policy side. Okay. But we also have people who are dissenting towards more hawkish monetary policy. They're saying, wait a second, I'm not cool with 50. I'm not cool with 25. I actually want to leave interest rates or raise them.
So what this is called is this called divergent dissent. Divergent dissent. You're gonna start hearing a lot about this. Divergent dissent means that you have people who are dissenting more aggressive and people who are dissenting in a more hawkish way. That type of dissent within the Federal Reserve has not happened in 35 years.
Now, why is that important is when you got a jump ball in basketball, you know, when everyone's rolling around on the ground and they're all trying to grab it and the referee goes, Jump ball. Guess what? It's anybody's ball. Who's going to win the jump ball? That's kind of like what's going on right now. Who's going to win the debate, right? There's uncertainty.
The tectonic plates of the FOMC are shifting. So where are we going to end up? Are we going to end up with 25 basis point cut? I do believe that's where we end up. But I think we should get 50. The economy can handle it. It needs it, right? I think that the market needs it.
I think that there are a lot of things in the labor market and in the inflation numbers that warrant the 50 basis point cut, but I do think they're only going to do 25. But when there's a jump ball or those tectonic plates are shifting, that means that things change. You need to have uncertainty. You need to have dissent. You need to have debate and argument And it's spilling out into the public.
When you have that, that provides the environment for things to change. And so how does it change? When does it change? Why does it change? We'll throw in the fact that we're going to get a new Fed president.
lot of things moving around here and i think that's ultimately what people are trying to figure out is how exactly are we going to end up with an environment from the central bank that is conducive to this economic boom and you know i recently talked about i wrote a piece about elon musk gave a podcast interview and he talked about the fact that there is likely to be a deflationary aspect to the us economy via ai and robotics and his whole point was basically there's supply and demand
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