Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
What's going on, guys?
Chapter 2: Why has Bitcoin's price stalled according to Larry Fink?
Today, we've got a great conversation with John Pompliano. We're going to talk about what's going on in the Bitcoin market. Why is price not going up? I've got a very interesting idea that I think you will like about how to see the Bitcoin market moving forward. We talk about the Fed cutting interest rates, what's going on in the economy.
And of course, how could we possibly talk about Bitcoin and Bitcoin volatility without talking about buttons training and ringing the bell?
Chapter 3: How do drawdowns in Bitcoin matter over time?
You're going to love that part of it as well. Here's my latest conversation with John Pompliano.
all right john what's the first topic larry fink boss bitcoin is an asset of fear you you believe him 100 100 his point uh so he recently went to uh the new york times deal book summit he was talking with andrew ross sorkin and he talks about how bitcoin is uh an asset of fear and his point was when people are fearful they look for some sort of safety asset right it's a flight to safety so gold and bitcoin historically have served as a great thing
If it's uncomfortable, if you're nervous, you go and you store something where you have confidence that it's going to still be there.
Chapter 4: What does the latest jobs data indicate about the economy?
And so his point was when the U.S.-China trade deal got announced, Bitcoin went down. Why? There was less uncertainty. There was more certainty.
Chapter 5: How do consumer sentiment and social media sentiment differ?
More certainty equals... Less fear, less fear equals a lower Bitcoin price. And so if you extrapolate that to today, why is Bitcoin's price not going up?
Chapter 6: What is the Santa rally and how does it relate to market psychology?
That is one part of it. It's like, what is there to be fearful about right now? Were you nervous about AI? Were you in an AI bubble? But gold is typically a fear asset as well, right? And that has rallied pretty well. Well, so Bitcoin and gold both rallied up until...
Chapter 7: Has the Bitcoin narrative changed for investors looking towards 2026?
about a month before everyone thought, oh, the four-year cycle type stuff, right? So another thing that I think is pretty important is Jeff Park. He wrote this great piece recently about a lot of large holders or kind of OG whales selling calls against their Bitcoin. And so you can think about this like call selling is essentially they're selling away the upside of the Bitcoin, right?
It provides some sort of like ceiling or pressure on Bitcoin's price, right? So I don't think that there's one single silver bullet you can point to where I think is the culmination of a lot of this stuff. And then I do think that there is just some belief that like, hey, the four-year rally and cycle is supposed to hold. And so there's a bunch of people who were selling before that.
Now, what I do find pretty interesting is Bitcoin's volatility has continued to stay pretty suppressed. You're somewhere in the like 40s, maybe you jack up to into the 50s. But the lower that the volatility is, the less upside you should expect, but also the less downside you should expect.
And so if we stay within kind of a 40% drawdown, 126 to 80,000, you know, give or take, then that's a lot easier to stomach than if it goes down 80%. Right. So nobody's talking about it from that perspective.
Chapter 8: How does BUD/S training relate to Bitcoin's volatility?
Everyone's talking about I wanted to go to 200. Of course, everyone wants to go up. But there is some confidence that gets instilled if the drawdowns get shallower and shallower over time. You will elicit more capital into the asset. And so I don't think that Larry Fink is wrong about Bitcoin being a fear asset. But I also think that Bitcoin is different things to different people.
If you're in a country where you're worried about somebody seizing your assets, sure, maybe you're driven by fear of that, so you go and you buy Bitcoin. But you're really buying it for the Caesarship resistance, right? If you live in a country where there's very high debasement, again, you could describe it as, oh, I'm fearful of debasement, therefore I go and I buy Bitcoin.
But you're buying it for the protection against debasement, right? You're not necessarily buying it because of a macro kind of market dynamic. And so I think that Bitcoin – Although people may not like it, Bitcoin's kind of doing what it was intended to do. It's the most disciplined monetary policy in the world. It continues to produce block after block after block of transactions.
It's higher today than it was 14 months ago. Everyone looks back at one year and they're like, ah! Bitcoin was $69,000 on November 1st of 2024. Today, it's $86,000, $87,000, $90,000, wherever it is. Okay. that's pretty good return for most assets in a given year, right? It's just that exactly one year is post-run up from November 1st to end of December because of the election.
And so people would say, ah, in 12 months, it's flat to negative. Well, yeah, but if you go back 14 months, then it tells a different story. And so you just got to be very careful. You don't just arbitrarily select these timeframes. I'm just as guilty as everybody else. Sometimes, you know, you're like, hey, you just hit the one year chart, you know, it's pre-made for you.
Here's the percentage, bam, you tweet it out, whatever. But if you do look back over time, Bitcoin has done pretty well. It's very hard to remember this, but when Michael Saylor and Strategy started to buy Bitcoin, Bitcoin was sitting somewhere between $8,000 and $10,000. So think about that. That was in 2020, August of 2020.
In five-ish years, Bitcoin has 10x'd, and there are people who are upset. It's all relative, right? It's all just like perspective matters. And so if you were buying in 2020, yeah, sure, you wish it was up 20X, but like you're doing okay. If you bought at 125,000 in 2025 and it's now sitting at 90,000, you're like, this thing sucks, right?
And so I think that, you know, people just gotta calm down. Bitcoin is an asset that continues to compound at a very attractive rate. If you want something that doesn't have lots of drawdowns, go buy stocks. But understand that stocks are unlikely to outperform Bitcoin over the next five or 10 years. So what are you looking for in your portfolio? This is a tool you can put in your portfolio.
What do you need? If you need a shovel, don't buy a hammer. A lot of young people like Bitcoin because it's asymmetric, right? It protects against debasement. It compounds at a higher rate, all that kind of stuff. Okay, great. If you're not looking for that, then don't buy Bitcoin.
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