Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano.
Chapter 2: Is inflation actually a problem that we should be worried about?
Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast.
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Chapter 3: Where are interest rates ultimately headed?
So let's get into today's episode. Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments.
Chapter 4: What does the data show about the affordability crisis?
You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. There's a lot of big institutions that might even be behind some of this sell off that want to drive it lower because they want to get in.
I think there's huge institutional big money demand to buy Bitcoin. It's just waiting to pounce. And so once that pounce happens, we're going to be at 150. I still think and the last time I was on, I said, I think we'll be at 150 by the end of February. I hate to do it, but facts change. I got to change. I'm going to back it up just a little bit and say, I think we'll be at 150.
What's going on, guys? Today, we got a great conversation with Mel Madison.
Chapter 5: How are human nature and incentives impacting financial decisions?
In this conversation, we talk about inflation, interest rates, the Fed and asset prices. He also goes into a historical overview of what's been happening both in the United States, Western Europe, Canada and all around the world.
why so many social and political trends are actually affecting asset prices, why things like Bitcoin have become popular, and how young people are beginning to invest more and why they're doing it. This conversation touches on both the financial impact, but also the social impact of so much that's happening in the American economy. I'm excited to bring it to you and hopefully you learn something.
Here's my latest conversation with Mel Madison. All right, Mel, I thought a great place to start the conversation. Everyone is worried about inflation. The Fed's been worried about inflation. That's the big reason why they claim that they haven't been cutting rates more aggressively. We see lots of people who were saying that tariffs were going to be inflationary.
Chapter 6: What factors are contributing to the rise of independent investors?
They were wrong. What's your take? Is inflation actually a problem that we should be worried about? Or is this disinflationary or deflationary theme that now you're hearing Elon Musk and other people talk about actually the thing that we should be paying attention to? Yeah, exactly. I mean, I think we've got huge deflationary forces, you know, in effect that have been going on for some time.
I think a lot of people are kind of dissing Hassard as if he gets appointed Fed chair, he'll be a puppet of Trump, and he's just talking about lower rates.
Chapter 7: What caused the recent bitcoin selloff and what is the 2026 outlook?
But if you listen to what he's saying, and also if you listen to what Scott Besson is saying, Besson has talked about the three I's, immigration, interest rates, and then I forget the third one, but it has to do with energy. So basically with inflation. So energy is the key to inflation. And if you look at where oil is, it is absolutely dirt cheap, even at $60 a barrel.
If you go back to 2007 when we reached $150 a barrel, and inflation adjusts that.
Chapter 8: Why does mindset matter more than macro factors for individuals?
I mean, oil could go up to $80. It's still dirt cheap. I just filled up my car yesterday. I go to a Harris Teeter here in North Carolina, and my fuel points kick in, and I get like a $0.70 gallon discount. It was $2.10 a gallon to fill up my car. Anytime you go back and you look and you say, when did inflation spike? It spikes with oil. It spikes with energy.
You go back to 2022, gas was $5 a gallon post the Ukraine-Russia war starting. Oil spiked to $120 a barrel. That led us off that inflationary spiral. A lot of people think it was all about QE, all about COVID spend, and they completely forget about the fact that oil literally went from negative to $120 a barrel in less than a year.
When you move like that in oil and energy, you're gonna stoke inflation, and we don't have anything that is stoking inflation right now. In fact, we have everything pointing down. We have housing going down, energy going down. If you even look at foodstuffs, these things are, the Trump administration is now working on all of those things. Those are going down.
I mean, I don't see any way that you can't see that basically cpi ppi something like that it's going to be between two and two and a half percent by the end of next year like very close to the fed's target one thing i would note we do tend to see inflation even though it's seasonally adjusted go down at the end of the year and then spike at the beginning of the year.
So what I wouldn't be surprised to see is to see January or February CPI prints a little high. People get freaked out. Maybe yields go up a little bit. And then it starts that normal trajectory downwards and probably somewhere between two, two and a half percent by the end of next year. And the I mean, that's basically the Fed's target. So there's no reason to be restrictive and above neutral.
And that's why they should be cutting. And it's completely legitimate. And that's exactly what Hassett or whoever the next Fed chair is going to be arguing in a few months when they're in the post. So we've been getting these rate cuts as we go lower and lower, and sure, they're fighting it as they're doing it, right?
And obviously the president, the administration, and many people would like it to go faster. One of the questions I started to ask people, what is the final resting place? Should we be at 2%, 2.25, 2.5, 3? Where do you think it's like kind of when we're done with this rate cutting cycle, where should we end up? I mean, this is the very academic conversation about our star, right?
The neutral rate. This is the supposed rate where it's the Goldilocks rate, where you're not overly stimulated to the economy, you're not overly restrictive. I actually think that what we need to do is we need to get to our star and then we need to go lower. And I think that if it's Hassett who's the next Fed chair or whoever it is, they're going to be of the same opinion. And this is, in effect,
an advocation of some form of YCC or yield curve control, which is essentially saying we need to dampen interest rates to an excessive level for a number of fundamental reasons. The first of which is just the fiscal situation in the United States, the amount of net interest expense that we are paying.
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