The President's Daily Brief
December 30th, 2025: China’s Military Encircles Taiwan & Russia Accuses Ukraine Of Foul Play
30 Dec 2025
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Well, look at that. Two days left in what has been a very eventful 2025. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, China encircles Taiwan with the largest military exercises in its history, raising an interesting question.
At what point does an exercise stop being just an exercise and start becoming the real thing? I'll have the details. Later in the show, Russia claims Ukraine tried to carry out a drone attack on Russian President Putin's residence. That's not very neighborly, with Moscow now hinting at taking a tougher negotiating position, while Kiev flatly dismisses the accusation as a lie.
And not to state the obvious, but I think I'm about to, what else could Moscow do to take a tougher negotiating position than the one they've already got? Plus, President Trump meets with Prime Minister Netanyahu in Florida to push for movement on the stalled Gaza ceasefire. And in today's Back of the Brief, Kim Jong-un wraps up the year by throwing his teddy out of the crib again. That's right.
North Korea says it just tested a bunch of long-range cruise missiles. Huzzah and Happy New Year. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. China has just launched what both Beijing and outside observers are calling the largest military exercises that the Chinese military has ever conducted around Taiwan.
Over the past several days, the People's Liberation Army has launched what it's calling Justice Mission 2025. That's got a quaint ring to it, doesn't it? Surging warships and fighter jets, bombers, drones and missile units into multiple operating zones surrounding Taiwan. The scope is massive. These drills aren't confined to one side of the island or just one service branch of the PLA.
They're coordinated across sea and air and rocket forces, creating a near-complete military ring around Taiwan. According to Taiwanese officials, dozens of Chinese naval vessels and a very large number of military aircraft have been involved. some operating closer to Taiwan than in previous exercises. Commercial air traffic has been rerouted. Shipping's been warned away from certain zones.
Live fire components are reportedly included, with the Chinese government declaring several no-fly zones as they conduct a variety of missile launches. And Beijing hasn't been subtle with their messaging. Chinese state media says these drills are, quote, a stern warning to Taiwan's leadership and to what China calls, quote, external interference. That's a not-so-subtle reference to the U.S.
From Beijing's perspective, this is about deterrence, sovereignty, and control of escalation. From Taiwan's perspective, though, it's about survival. Taipei has placed its forces on heightened alert, scrambling aircraft and tracking Chinese movements closely. Taiwanese officials are careful with their language, but the concern is obvious.
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Chapter 2: What recent military actions has China taken around Taiwan?
It would be a quarantine or blockade. Restrict shipping, close airspace, apply pressure without formally declaring war. These drills appear designed to practice just that. There's also a psychological component. Constant high tempo exercises force Taiwan's military to respond again and again, burning fuel and wearing down crews, stressing systems. Over time, that creates fatigue.
It also conditions the public to crisis. When everything feels urgent all the time, it becomes harder to recognize the moment when something truly changes. And that's where the historical parallel comes in. Before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia conducted repeated large-scale military exercises near Ukraine's borders. Moscow insisted they were routine, defensive, temporary.
Troops were already in position, equipment was already staged, logistics were already flowing. When the order came, well, there was no dramatic mobilization that suddenly tipped everyone off. The switch from exercise to invasion happened almost seamlessly. By the time it was unmistakable, it was too late to debate intentions. Beijing knows that lesson very well.
They've spent the past four years closely studying Putin's invasion and the international community's response. By normalizing massive drills around Taiwan, China gains strategic ambiguity. If a future operation begins under the banner of an exercise, decision makers in Washington and Tokyo and Taipei would face an immediate dilemma.
Do you respond forcefully and risk escalating what China claims is training, or do you hesitate and risk discovering that hesitation was a mistake? That's why analysts don't just watch troop numbers. They look for indicators that separate drills from real operations.
Unusual logistics movements, stockpiling of fuel and ammunition, changes in political messaging, civilian evacuation guidance, cyber activity, and internal security shifts inside China itself. Right now, we don't seem to see any definitive signs that an invasion is imminent, but it doesn't mean that these drills are harmless. Each exercise like this improves China's readiness.
Each one reduces the margin for error. Each one shortens the warning time if Beijing ever decides to move from exercise to action. They're deliberate rehearsals designed to make a future operation, if one is ordered, faster, smoother, and harder to stop. The world learned the hard way that dismissing exercises as just exercises can be a costly mistake. Taiwan's neighbors, U.S.
allies in the region, and American planners understand that reality. That's why these drills are watched so closely, and why the phrase, quote, largest ever, isn't just a headline, it's a warning sign.
All right, coming up next, Russia claims Ukraine targeted President Putin's residence as Moscow hardens its tone in response to the alleged attack, while President Trump presses Prime Minister Netanyahu for movement on a stalled Gaza ceasefire. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, as we move into the new year, many of us are looking to build more intentional lives, right?
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Chapter 3: What is the significance of China's military exercises in the context of Taiwan?
Ukraine's President Zelensky rejected the Kremlin's accusation outright, accusing Moscow of manufacturing a crisis to justify further attacks and to sabotage what are already fragile peace efforts following his meeting Sunday with President Trump in Mar-a-Lago.
In a post on X, Zelensky accused Moscow of reverting to a familiar playbook, writing that, quote, Russia is at it again, using dangerous statements to undermine all achievements of our shared diplomatic efforts with President Trump's team.
Zelensky said the claim of a presidential residence strike was entirely fabricated, arguing it was designed to pave the way to mask Russia's unwillingness to pursue peace, calling it, quote, typical Russian lies. White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt said Trump spoke with Putin on Monday in what was the second phone call in two days.
According to CNN, the Russian leader informed Trump of the drone attack, to which Trump said it was not the correct time for Kiev to target his residence, given ongoing and sensitive peace talks. However, Trump did concede that the allegation of the attack from the Kremlin could be false. Although, it would be shocking to think that Putin and his minions might be engaged in disinformation.
And by that I mean, it wouldn't be shocking in the least. All right, turning to the U.S., Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived at Mar-a-Lago in Florida Monday for talks with President Trump, as attention turns to the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, which, of course, centers on Hamas's disarmament and agreement to step down from governing Gaza. His visit comes at a critical moment.
The ceasefire Trump brokered and signed in October largely did what it was designed to do in its opening phase, ease the fighting, enable the return of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and surge aid deliveries. The second phase, however, is proving elusive, if not impossible.
For phase two, it goes straight to the core of the conflict, whether Hamas gives up its weapons and Gaza moves towards a governing structure not controlled by the Iranian-backed terror group. So far, Hamas has shown little interest in complying with either requirement of the ceasefire agreement. That backdrop explains why Netanyahu's fifth trip to the U.S.
since the start of Trump's second term comes now. As we've been covering here on the PDB, Trump's plan for Gaza envisions an international board of peace to be led by the president himself alongside other world leaders. They would oversee a transitional administration made up of Palestinian technocrats once Hamas is removed from power.
Once that body is in place, as the idea goes, an international security force, the ISF, mandated by the November UN Security Council resolution, would deploy to help stabilize the enclave. That's the theory. Now, Trump has been blunt about what comes next, and Monday was no different. He told CNN he wants a second phase launch, quote, as quickly as we can, but only if Hamas disarms.
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