The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 26th, 2025: Inside China’s Struggling Economy & Kashmir Attack Sparks Crisis Between Nuclear Rivals
Sat, 26 Apr 2025
In this episode of The PDB Situation Report: The U.S.-China tariff war continues to simmer. Washington floats the idea of cutting tariffs—while Beijing warns the world not to strike deals with America at its expense. Christopher Balding, a leading expert on Chinese financial markets, joins us to break it down. A brutal terrorist attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir leaves 26 civilians dead. Now, tensions are rising between India and Pakistan—two nuclear-armed rivals. Intelligence analyst Siddhant Kishore explains what’s at stake if this turns into something bigger. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: Who are the hosts and guests featured in this episode?
My name is Mike Slater. I have a podcast called Politics by Faith. I was just talking to a friend of mine who said he hasn't been able to follow the news lately. It's been too much. It's too crazy. It's driving him crazy. And he's just checked out. If you feel that way sometimes too, I think you'll really like our podcast, Politics by Faith.
We take the main story of the day and we run it through the Bible. What does the Bible say about this? It's amazing, but it's all there. And then God tells us what to do. We don't even have to figure it out. The answers are right there. He gives us the answers. Politics by faith. Please join us over there. You can listen to it wherever you're listening to this podcast right now. Politics by faith.
welcome to the pdb situation report i'm mike baker your eyes and ears on the world stage all right let's get ourselves briefed we'll start things off with a look at the still simmering it's simmering u.s china tariff war you've heard about that haven't you new threats talk of tariff cuts and a whole lot of posturing some might call it voguing but not much progress
We'll speak to a leading expert on the Chinese economy and financial markets, Christopher Balding, about the latest. Later in the show, a deadly terror attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir leaves 26 dead, and now India and Pakistan are trading threats, and that's not a good thing. Two nuclear-armed nations now on a collision course. Intelligence analyst Siddhant Kishore joins us for more on that.
But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight. The US-China tariff war remains at an impasse despite both sides expressing openness to dialogue. This week, China issued a stern warning, get this, to countries considering trade agreements with the US that might undermine Chinese interests. threatening reciprocal countermeasures. That's rather bullying of them.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that the White House is reportedly contemplating significant tariff reductions on Chinese imports, potentially slashing rates from 145% to between 50% and 65% in an effort to de-escalate tensions. President Trump has indicated a willingness to negotiate but insists that any tariff cuts would depend on reciprocal actions from Beijing.
However, and there's always a however, China has denied that any negotiations are currently underway and is demanding the removal of all U.S. tariffs as a precondition for talks. As both sides dig in, markets remain jittery, as you might imagine, swaying on speculation rather than substance. My next guest has a very interesting history with the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP.
He was a professor at Peking University's HSBC School of Business until 2018. That year, he was fired for criticizing the government's censorship. Christopher Balding is currently a senior fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, and he joins us now. Christopher, thanks very much for joining us here on The Situation Report. Thanks for having me, guys. Well, let's start with the situation back in 2018.
Talk to us a little bit about your experience there.
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Chapter 2: What is the current state of the US-China tariff war?
in China, where they reported very robust growth for the year of 5%, and somehow tax revenue declined 3%. I mean, that's a gap of 8%, and they seem to be going in opposite directions, okay? And there were times you could go in and literally see them making changes in data day to day. So, when it comes to the actual data, it's simply not trustworthy.
When it comes to the economic reporting, one of the problems that is very accurate in a lot of reporting is that I don't know, there might be one or two outlets that still actually have reporters in China, but all of the reporting that you're seeing done is being done from New York City.
And there's probably of any reporter that I know of that is considered on the China economics beat or the China beat, there's probably only a couple that have what I would call any type of depth of connection in China of just people they can call on to say, hey, tell me, what do you know?
And so it's actually I think it's giving and I'm not saying intentionally, but I do think it definitely is not giving an accurate picture of what is going on in China. And, you know, to be fair, China has kicked out basically all the reports. So it is it is hard for sure.
Yeah, no, I take your point. It's not intentional on the part of the people covering it. The report is covering it from outside. It's certainly intentional on the part of the CCP. And that's a real combination, right? If what you're saying is, look, the data isn't trustworthy and there's no transparency from the outside,
then that begs the question for Western companies looking to do business in China, because I think the Chinese market, grabbing the Chinese market has always been sort of the holy grail for a lot of multinationals. But if you can't do any proper due diligence, what are you building your business on?
No, that's exactly correct. And in fact, China has even China has basically even made it illegal to do due diligence.
So, you know, like if you were thinking of setting up a China business or a China subsidiary, you know, there are, you know, everything from consulting to security firms that you would say, hey, I need a due diligence report on this site or who my who my joint venture partner might be. And, you know, technically and really pragmatically, those are illegal now. I mean, think about that.
It's basically illegal to do a background report on whom my joint venture partner is. I mean, in most of the world, that would be considered crazy, but that's the reality of China. So, it still is baffling to me to a degree why why firms do that. One great example, there was a study about a year ago, China said that they were working to become compliant with IP laws.
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Chapter 3: What was Christopher Balding's experience at Peking University?
No, Mike, I do not think so. The reason being is because Pakistani army and the population in general are very well aware of their insecurities and their capabilities. Now, how I see it unfold, I would say it's an asymmetric escalation that India would definitely make attempts escalate into the conflict.
But Pakistan, due to given its vulnerabilities, incapabilities, and a group of diplomatic pressure that India will lobby in the future, will pressure Pakistan into not reacting in the same momentum. So that's one thing that I would clarify here. I do not see going into full-blown war is because India does not need to do that.
If you compare the military preponderance of both countries, Pakistan is a very significantly lower proportion compared to India. So that is one stated fact. Secondly, Pakistan has a history of being defeated despite several attacks that they themselves started the war. India has never started a war with any country. Pakistan started war in 65, 48, 99.
And since then, they have realized that they cannot attack India in a full symmetrical manner. So since then, they have gotten into this irregular hybrid warfare where the same people across the border and ask them to conduct these small and large scale terrorist attacks. So Pakistan understands that. Pakistan will not up the ante. India will actually do escalations. That's very clear.
That is just a matter of time. But Pakistan is under certain diplomatic, military, and economical constraints that will prevent it from responding in the same manner.
Let's go back to something else that we discussed earlier was the links between Pakistan and this attack.
And I take your point, but over just looking at the involvement of LAT, the resistance front in this and the claims of the Indian government, but in your mind, is it important at this stage for the Indian authorities to actually present something more specific in terms of evidence for this link? And my perception is that would be beneficial in terms of stating their case.
Otherwise, you're looking at, well, there's allegations and of course, they're always going to turn around and claim that it's the Pakistani government that's behind this. So, do you think it's important for them to do that? And do you think they will? I think it's a part of the process.
I do not think that Indian government as of now is obliged to present evidence. The reason is because it's a historical trauma within the people of India. And secondly, Indian media or Indian population or the government does not really take Pakistani acquisitions or Pakistani considerations of the event very seriously.
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