PDB Situation Report | December 27th, 2025: Why This Year of War Rewrote the Ukraine Playbook & Asia’s Strategic Crossroads
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Well, believe it or not, this is our final situation report of 2025. My, how the year flew by. So today we're doing something a little bit different. We're stepping back to take stock of two of the most consequential regions shaping the global security picture and looking ahead to what comes next. We'll start in Ukraine, of course, where another brutal year of war has reshaped assumptions on both sides of the battlefield. Joining us to break it all down is George Barrows from the Institute for the Study of War. Then, later in the show, we'll shift our focus out to the Far East, where strategic competition continues to intensify.
We'll be joined by Steve Yates from the Herrings Foundation. But first... This coming February will mark the fourth year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Imagine that. Fourth year. A war that many analysts once believed would be over in days. Do you remember that? There was once a time when we thought, oh, the Kremlin's going to roll right into Kiev in days, and it's going to all be over. But here we are, and 2025 proved to be another grinding, consequential year in the conflict. Ukraine dramatically expanded its drone campaign deep into the heart of Russia, striking targets tied to Moscow's economic infrastructure and oil industry, bringing the war closer to home for the Kremlin than at any point so far.
On the battlefield, however, the front lines told a familiar story. Russia made incremental, slow, costly territorial gains, but, again, only at an extraordinarily high cost in manpower and equipment, underscoring the brutal, almost stalemate that continues to define this war. Joining us now is George Barrows. He's the U.S. team leader at the Institute for the Study of War and a very good friend of the show. George, thank you very much. Hey, Mike. Good to see you once again. Thanks for having me. Oh, thank you too, man. I hope you're having a fantastic holiday season. It's hard to believe that the year has flown by the way that it has, right? It just... Maybe I'm just Groundhog Day. I think every year I say the same thing, which is, wow, it's really snuck up on me, meaning the end of the year.
But look, we're about to walk into 2026. And so what I was hoping to do is to get your thoughts on the year past and where you think
What significant changes occurred in the Ukraine conflict in 2025?
this is going? I mean, what are we looking at for 2026? So, let's start with that. What are your thoughts on the developments of 2025 in relation to the Ukraine conflict? What were the big surprises from your perspective? And where do you think this is going? I know that's a really, really big playing field.
Yeah, it's good. It's a good, broad place to start. So, look, let's start with the facts. The facts for 2025 is that the Russians seized not more than 1% of Ukraine's territory. They've actually seized less than 1% of Ukraine's territory. I suppose the crowning operational achievement of the Russians on the battlefield in the theater for all of this year was the seizure of Poprovsk, or the near seizure of Poprovsk. There's still some tactical fighting happening on its outskirts. But this is not something that the Russians achieved in the last six months or nine months. They had been working on seizing Pokrovsk since April of 2024. So this was, you know, the 20-month campaign to advance literally 20 miles to seize Pokrovsk.
Ukraine's 74th most populous town, a town of formally of 60,000 people. And that was sort of the crowning Russian achievement. And it was the basis of that seizure that the Russians tried to convince the White House and the whole world that the front lines are collapsing, that Ukraine is on the edge of military catastrophe. And because the Russians are advancing at this very slow rate, we have to cajole them to this sort of... the ceasefire and conflict termination agreement.
But beyond all of those... Well, it seems like, George, I mean, George, it seems like Putin was fairly successful in that effort, at least initially, right?
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:12–2:38
2
What significant changes occurred in the Ukraine conflict in 2025?
2:38–6:01
3
How has Ukraine's drone campaign evolved during the war?
6:01–7:40
4
What are the implications of Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine?
7:40–15:20
5
What strategies are being employed in U.S.-China relations as tensions rise?
15:20–22:18
6
How is the U.S. responding to China's military pressure on Taiwan?
22:18–28:31
7
What economic challenges is Russia facing due to the ongoing war?
28:31–1:00:41
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from The President's Daily Brief
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