Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
If you get mad every time you pick up your phone and start scrolling, it's not just you. Rage bait is kind of the currency or the power that's behind a lot of the content we might see. This week on Explain It To Me From Vox, why the internet is pissing you off on purpose. New episodes Sundays wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the 378th episode of The Prof G Pod. What's happening?
Scott's not back yet, so I'm stepping in. I'm Jessica Tarlow, political strategist, co-host of The Five, and co-host of the Raging Moderates podcast with Scott. In today's episode, I speak with Ian Bremmer, the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm. We discuss the top risks for 2026.
These risks include Trump's political revolution, U.S. intervention abroad, and the global power struggle playing out through AI and energy. So with that, here's our conversation with Ian Bremmer. Ian, where does this podcast find you? I'm doing my best, Scott. You're channeling Prof G here. My buddy, Scott. I'm here in New York City, exactly the same place I was last time I was on your pod.
Okay, great. I'm in New York City too, but it's great to have you. I'm a tremendous fan of yours and always appreciate your commentary and insights. And we're talking your top risks report, 20th year, right? 20th, 28th since I started Eurasia Group, 20th year of doing the top risk reports. When you say that, it feels like a long time. But, you know, I think I'm only halfway through.
So who knows, you know, God willing. Well, I wish you a long life and that we talk about many risk reports as time goes on. But I wanted to start with risk number three, which I'm sure you're getting tons of questions about the Don Rowe Doctrine. Already proven true not even a week into the new year.
As we're recording this, we're in New York City and so is Nicolas Maduro in a holding cell in Brooklyn. His wife is here as well. They're in American custody, have pleaded not guilty to drug trafficking and other federal charges. What was your initial reaction to the news of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and bringing Maduro here to New York?
Um, it was a staggering military success operationally. Um, the, the Russians wish they could have pulled this off. we'd be having a very different conversation about Ukraine if their military had, you know, a fifth of the professionalism and capabilities that the Americans do.
Interestingly, I mean, this has been discussed inside the Trump administration for months now, but three months ago, they didn't have intelligence on Maduro's whereabouts and habits. They didn't have people inside the administration that were working with them, and now they did. And so they were able to give the go ahead.
And this is that the fact that they were able to pull that off over the course of a few months and put that plan together is a real operational victory for President Trump. He wanted to see the back of Maduro. He did. There are no American boots on the ground.
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Chapter 2: What are the biggest global risks identified for 2026?
There were no American servicemen or women that were killed in the operation. And it not it wasn't just removing Maduro. It's bringing him to the United States. It's having him see justice in an American court system with all of the media and the attention and the rest that will play out over the course of months. All of that is exactly what Trump and his advisors and cabinet were hoping for.
So from an initial impact perspective, it was massively positive for them. Having said that, There are lots of second order questions. Trump doubling down across the region about how one goes about running Venezuela with the same regime is still in place, even though Maduro is gone. Everybody else is still there. What does that look like? And what are the knock on implications of all of this?
Because there is a level of if you end up breaking it, you have responsibility. And even if Trump doesn't believe that that is true, that will be seen to be true by a lot of people. So, I mean, if Trump could just stop the clock right there with Maduro confined and in his, you know, sort of handcuffs and the rest,
it'd be a very different story than what I think we'll be talking about over the course of the year. And that's why, of course, Donro doctrine is number three, because it's not just about Trump getting rid of Maduro and having one. We said we thought that Maduro was going to be out. We've been saying that for months. We didn't think he'd see the end of the year.
But that's very different from how the United States deciding that it will be the arbiter of what happens in its hemisphere, broadly defined. That's going to be a tricky one. Absolutely. I mean, there are so many pieces to this puzzle.
And I like that you began with emphasizing what an incredible military operation this has been, because I know that's been a source of frustration for the administration that they don't get that conversation because everyone jumps to the stuff that they don't like about what they have done. But I do want to talk about the Donro doctrine aspect of this.
So we know that Venezuela had Russia operating there, China operating there, Iran's there, you know, Hezbollah. We saw in the swearing in of Delcy Rodriguez, who was the vice president, is now the president. that she's very chummy with the ambassadors from all of our adversarial countries that I just named, not kissing any American ambassador or with a warm embrace.
So what do you think that the Donro doctrine spells out for the other countries in Trump's Western hemisphere? And do you think that things in Venezuela actually are going to change? Well, first of all, we may need to start rethinking how we talk about adversaries. I mean, Trump does. For Trump, the top adversary of the United States are his political opponents in the United States.
And when he meets with Xi Jinping, he deals with him in many ways as a peer, And he doesn't afford that level of treatment with the Europeans, for example, even though the Europeans are NATO allies of the United States. But China, he talks about having a G2 relationship. So, I mean, does Trump really see China as a core adversary?
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Chapter 3: How does Trump's political revolution impact U.S. foreign policy?
But Maduro himself was a dictator. He was not democratically elected. They had elections. He refused to accept the outcome. He's brutal. He traffics massive amounts of drugs and all sorts of the things, right? Greenland is not just part of the territory of a clear and steadfast ally. I mean, this is a country that immediately was sending troops to help the U.S. in Afghanistan. Right.
And died in larger numbers per capita than the Americans did. Right. So like Denmark is a serious ally of the U.S. and anything the U.S. needs. In Greenland, if the U.S.
wants more access for bases, if they want intelligence listening posts, if they want to give Elon a launch pad for SpaceX and Starlink, if they want access to exploitation of critical minerals and resources, anything they want, if the Americans are prepared to just pick up the phone, call the Danish prime minister and negotiate, they will get those things. Right. No problem.
So why is there a problem here, right? Because with Venezuela, it was very clear why there were problems, right? I mean, you had Maduro who's dancing and making fun of Trump and saying, I'm never going anywhere. You've got the drugs. You've got the immigration, the 8 million migrants, 8 million migrants from Venezuela legally destabilizing the region, all these things.
Last I can tell, there ain't no fentanyl coming from Greenland, right? We don't have that problem. So what... The fuck is it? Right. I'm legitimately angry about this because it's so stupid. And as best I can tell, someone showed Trump Greenland on on a globe and he's like, wow, it's really big, even though it's not right. And we should have that. And he wants it to be American.
And Trump, there isn't a plan, but they are developing a plan. There are many people in the administration that have been tasked with coming up for a plan for Greenland to no longer be a part of Denmark, for it to be sovereign territory of the United States. That is the intention. That is under no circumstances workable for Denmark or its Nordic allies, or I think most of Europe.
This is an incredibly stupid own goal in my view, especially because Trump is not a dictator. Like anything Trump does, another president comes in in 2029, they can undo all of this. So why are you destroying decades of goodwill with committed allies and actually, you know, putting in jeopardy the transatlantic alliance, the NATO alliance?
because you've decided that you need to paint Greenland as part of the United States. For the life of me, I have no idea why they think this is so important, why Trump has decided this is so important. It feels like madness. But it is the actual plan. We're not making this up. That is the intention. And they are not talking to the Danish government about this.
They intend to talk directly with Greenland. Now, the good news... There's not been much good news here. The good news is there is truly no intention to invade Greenland. They're not going to take it militarily. They believe that through a combination of inducements and threats, overt and covert information and disinformation. Some plan will come together that will get them Greenland.
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Chapter 4: What is the significance of the Donro Doctrine in current geopolitics?
So how is he going to project power? How is he going to get his wins around the world? And the answer is much more militarily. where the U.S. actually does have an asymmetrical advantage, intelligence, where the U.S. does have an asymmetrical advantage, cyber, where the U.S. does have an asymmetrical advantage, especially against smaller countries all over the world.
And the Donro doctrine, I think, really does play into that. Because, of course, in America's backyard, I mean, China may be the largest economic trading partner for most of these countries, but militarily, the Americans clearly call the shots. Yeah.
I guess by extension, then, do you think that this has what we did in Venezuela or the way that he's thinking about foreign policy set a precedent where China is looking at Taiwan with even like more rose colored glasses or Putin's licking his lips a little bit more about Ukraine? I'm sure you saw that Fiona Hill's testimony from 2019 is circulating around saying, you
You know, Putin was thinking about, you know, a swap, right, that if the U.S. could get Venezuela, we could get Ukraine.
So do you think that these other powers, I won't call them straight adversaries, as per your earlier point, but are thinking, yes, there's a lot of military might there, but there's also somebody who thinks that, you know, if you're in a big position of power, you can go in and take a leader out of a country and, you know, take over yourself, in quotes?
Not, I mean, I understand the question, of course, and it's a very logical question to ask. It's an important question to ask. I would say not really. It's not the way I think about it. So, I mean, and we should take both of these in turn because they're different. Taiwan is considered by China, not by the United States, but considered by China to be a domestic issue.
And so it's not a matter for international law to determine. And China fully expects to take and integrate Taiwan into, reintegrate as they would describe it, into mainland China. And the reason they're not is because it's heavily defended. It's heavily fortified. It's an island. And it's because they have technology that China really needs in terms of TSMC and semiconductors.
And it would be a disaster for the Chinese. to try to take that risk at this point. But they're doing everything they can to ensure that in the future, maybe the not so distant future, that that won't be the case. And so, no, I don't think that the US Venezuela action changes that. I do think that China's recognition that they can give back as good as Trump gets
on critical minerals and on tariffs, and that they can squeeze the Americans and leverage the Americans, and that works, make the Chinese feel more comfortable that they can incrementally ratchet up pressure on Taiwan and the Americans won't do much. I do think they feel that, but that's not because of Venezuela.
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Chapter 5: How does the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela reflect broader strategies?
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Chapter 6: What challenges does Europe face in 2026 amid rising populism?
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political revolution. Walk us through why this one topped the list. I was very happy as a nervous American citizen to see this recognized as a possibility and a huge risk. So we don't think that the US political revolution is a possibility. We think it's happening. We just don't know if it will be successful or not.
And some people want it to be successful and others don't, but we think it's happening. What is it? Trump believes and his supporters agree that the political system was weaponized against him, leading to unprecedented two impeachments felonies and convictions and felony charges and convictions and a near assassination and that that justifies urgently Trump
taking political control of the administrative state, making it fully loyal to him, answerable and accountable to him, weaponizing the power ministries of the US, specifically the FBI, the Department of Justice, the IRS, other such organizations, and
ensuring that there are no further checks and balances that constrain the president so that the principal enemies of Trump and therefore the United States, not Russia, not China, but the Democratic Party in the U.S. can no longer come to power. That is what Trump is intending to do. I think he will likely fail.
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