Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
It's the Real Estate Podcast brought to you by Ray White, the largest real estate and property group in Australasia. And welcome to another episode of the Real Estate Podcast. Well, over the last week, we've been speculating with different guests what might be in store for the 2022 year.
And the banks and their economists and others like to put out their predictions about the market for the year ahead. Then we have other property market commentators weighing in with their thoughts with some saying a very familiar line. You've heard this. We are heading for a major correction in the market because interest rates will rise this year.
or early next year of course you the consumer are left with trying to decipher what to believe and what to throw away so to help us understand this a little bit better we're going to be talking right now with rich harvey from property buyer welcome back rich great to be on the show again craig
And we should also mention that we are starting from today a brand new podcast series called Let's Talk Property with you. You're going to be joining me every week to discuss property and your thoughts about what really is going on. I'm looking forward to that.
I think it's going to be an interesting journey because things that I talk about or predictions or comments I make, we can look back 12 months later and go, how relevant and how accurate were they? So very much looking forward to sharing the knowledge, Craig.
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Chapter 2: What predictions are being made for the real estate market in 2022?
Well, that's the thing. It's on the tape. We can always go back. On the record. Well, that's great. That's the way it should be. Yeah, honest, open advice. I love it.
Chapter 3: How are banks forecasting property prices this year?
And Brisbane, you were there last week. What a great city Brisbane is. I love Brisbane. And you can get around very easily. Yeah, it's a great look. Every time I visit it, it's just becoming more attractive. You know, every second person is riding a scooter, all those electric scooters, you got to watch and just get out of the way on the footpath. They're flying past you at 30 k's an hour.
But every morning I was up there for the conference, I'd get up and do my 10,000 step walk around the Botanic Gardens and South Bank. And it's just got a really great atmosphere. People seem a little bit more relaxed, more friendly, but it's a really happening city. And I really enjoyed my time up there. It's got this vibe which is unlike Melbourne, unlike Sydney for sure.
And I always say that as soon as you get into Queensland, the friendliness just goes up 50%. Exactly. And I've got to tell you, I was staying in Petrie Terrace. It's only 1.5km out of the city, but some of the food outlets are great. Some of the cafes, they've really come of age. And so you can really get a good feed and enjoy a real cafe lifestyle up there too. Certainly can.
Yes, so go Brisbane. All right, let's have a look at what these commentators are saying. So how do you feel about what you've heard heading into 2022 by various commentators? Yeah, well, look, the banks always put out their predictions either at the end of 21 or beginning of 22, and they've all put their forecasts out. So I'll just give you a couple of numbers, Craig.
So CBA are predicting price growth of around 3% to 9% across the capital cities. Westpac's a bit more bullish and expecting 6% to 10% growth. ANZ, 3% to 9%. And NAB is the most conservative of the banks, is predicting a 4% to 6% growth. Now, they tend to revise their forecast typically every two months, and they actually do a survey of a number of other economists.
I'm actually one of 40 economists that participate in both the Finder survey and the NAB survey myself. But look, you can't sort of just take one of those numbers and run with it. Every city...
has different drivers and within each of those cities there's a multitude of suburbs of different things happening in the property market but the message that i think our listeners can take away is that we are expecting another year of growth but much more moderated growth we had an absolutely incredible boom market last year so don't expect to see the same repeat
However, we've just been talking about one city and that city is at the top of my trees, Brisbane. I think that city will definitely get double digit growth. So my prediction is actually looking ahead, Craig, for the year is I'm expecting Sydney to do around 6%, Melbourne 7%, Brisbane 10% to 15%, Canberra 7%, Adelaide 7%, Perth 3%, Darwin 6% and Hobart 7%.
So my own view of the market is it's still going to be positive. It's just going to depend on what happens with a lot of other factors in the economy. And talking of factors, what are the X factors that you see coming this year that could have a major impact on the market?
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