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Chapter 1: Is Keir Starmer sleepwalking into a war with Iran?
Thanks for listening to The Rest Is Politics. To support the podcast, listen without the adverts and get early access to episodes and live show tickets, go to therestispolitics.com. That's therestispolitics.com. That is chaos. It's chaos which has been triggered by the US and Israel's actions.
Iran at the moment is whacking off missiles at a fairly sizable number of places in one of the most volatile regions of the world. If that was Russia doing that today, we would basically be saying that this is now a world war. You've got this extraordinary move from Starmer. What I fear he's done is he's managed to piss off both of them.
I don't think we've won any credit from the US for doing that. It's not about winning credit. I don't see that it's about winning credit. Because this is what the national interest is about here. Let's be blunt. The UK is not protecting its citizens by getting involved in this war. The UK is endangering its citizens by getting involved in this war.
You're being both naive and unfair because it's so easy to sit on the sidelines and say, I wouldn't do that. Welcome to the Restless Politics with me, Alistair Campbell.
Chapter 2: What are the implications of US and Israeli actions in the Middle East?
And with me, Rory Stewart. I think it's fairly obvious what we talk about on the main podcast this week. Rory, what do you think? We're going to talk about Iran. Look, there are a lot of different dimensions. I'd love to know where you'd want to start. So one of them is how different international leaders are responding. So Britain, France, Germany, Canada.
Second is what's happening on the ground in Iran. Third is what's happening in terms of Iranian response attacks on Dubai. And fourth immediately strikes me is the broader story of what Israel is doing simultaneously in Lebanon, Gaza, elsewhere. But what's caught your attention at the moment? Where do you want to start? I mean, I think you're right.
Maybe the one I would add to that is what this all says about the state of America and the state of American politics and American leadership, especially now that Donald Trump has decided that even Keir Starmer has to get a whacking. for not agreeing with every single word that he says and every single thing that he does.
I'd like to start, Roy, do you remember when we interviewed Mike Pompeo, the former Secretary of State? And I told him during the interview that, I told you, because you weren't there at the event, that we'd had that question of the audience, which is the greatest threat to global stability, the United States or China?
And he looked absolutely gobsmacked that the answer was the United States, okay? Now, if memory serves me right, this was pre-Greenland. Yep. And it was certainly pre all this that we're living through now. But I wonder what in a educated audience, the answer to that question in most parts of the world would be right now.
Because it seems to me that what has been unleashed, you made this point on the very first episode we did on Saturday about the stripes, that unless you have some sense of clarity about what you're trying to achieve and how you're trying to achieve it, then there is a danger in any of these situations that they go off in directions that you simply cannot predict, let alone control.
And I worry that that's where we are right now. And I was actually talking to Alexander Stubb, who is our next guest on Leading next week.
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Chapter 3: How is the UK responding to the escalating conflict with Iran?
And I was talking to him about something this morning. And we're making the point that he's got this thing about, you know, the global south is where the power is going to come from in the future. We're still very much focused on the
on the west but iran at the moment is whacking off missiles uh you know a fairly sizable number of places in one of the most volatile regions of the world if that was russia doing that today say to estonia moldova lithuania poland we would basically be saying that this is now a world war okay
So, and if you just think, so right now, you have missiles in, you know, and neither you and I are ever going to say a kind word about the Iranian Islamic Republic regime. But Hexer yesterday said, we didn't start this war. Well, no, but this particular phase, you certainly did.
And the direct response has been the launch of missiles and drones at Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, which is the current president of the European Union, and also shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of all oil supplies flow. That is chaos. That is chaos in anybody's language.
And I think the first thing to start with is that it's chaos which has been triggered by the US and Israel's actions. This was not happening last week. It's happening because they chose to attack Iran and kill Khamenei. Now, that's a horrible regime. It's a threat to its people. It's massacred tens of thousands of its own people. The Iranian regime is incredibly unpopular.
However, it was in the middle of negotiating. And it did not pose an immediate threat, certainly not to the United States. It didn't pose an immediate threat to Israel. In fact, actually, as we've discovered, the ability of the Iranian regime now in the short term to actually hurt people is relatively limited.
And one of the reasons why it's not like Russia is that it just can't do the type of damage shot by shot that it could. In fact, the only thing that's actually created this situation is this attack, their decision to launch an attack. Now, this is where you get to these very, very strange questions about what the US thinks it's doing. So you have that Hegseth Statement.
And again, we'll put, I think, in the newsletter some links to, if people haven't seen it, the Hexeth interviews, the Rubio interviews, the Trump interviews. All saying different things about what they're trying to achieve. Exactly. That's exactly my point. Rubio says, we're going to continue doing this until we've achieved our objectives. And that's going to go on for a long time.
Well, what are those objectives? And you get completely different accounts. This episode is powered by Fuse Energy. Most of us are buying energy in the dark, not knowing what it costs. You wouldn't do that with your weekly food shop, but with energy, you're often charged first and only find out the number later.
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Chapter 4: What are Trump's objectives in attacking Iran?
But it's also true that he's coming up for an election, and he has turned around his political fortunes, partly through this momentum of military operations. Again, But it's not very surprising to discover Rubio saying this, because what do we know about the last American attack on Iran? Well, effectively, what happened that time is that America, again, was in the middle of negotiating with Iran.
Israel attacked. The initial instinct seemed to have been from Trump to criticize Netanyahu, and then he changed a dime and said, well, if Israel's going to do it anyway, Why don't we join in and get the credit for it? Launched this great operation and within about 48 hours, it flipped from I'm telling Netanyahu not to do it from I'm going along with him to do it.
So I think yet again, that seems to be a big driver. Obviously, they can't quite stop that. Because as you say, there's a contradiction in Rubio's statement. Rubio says, you know, we've got these clear objectives and we're going to continue till we've completed their objectives. If the objective was just...
We don't want to be embarrassed by Israel doing something without us, so we'll come along with them. Well, that objective has been achieved. So what are they doing now? What are they trying to do? Rubio tells us what he claims they're not trying to do. He says, yeah, it'd be lovely if there was regime change, but that's not what this is about. This is about their ballistic missiles.
With Trump, it was before. Right. And then you get all these other statements. I mean, Hex's speech is worth watching because it's a very odd speech. I mean, It begins with a, the first line is a blatant lie. We didn't start this war. Well, obviously they started this war, right? There's no sense at all.
I mean, and the Pentagon itself has now, there's something odd happening inside the US administration. The Pentagon then itself briefed out against the US cabinet saying there was absolutely no evidence whatsoever that Iran was about to launch an attack against the United States. That wasn't the reason why this thing happened, right? So Hicks says, we didn't start this war.
And then the speech is very odd. Sometimes he sounds like a news anchor. Sometimes he sounds like a mid-level American officer giving a rah-rah speech to his troops. And sometimes he sounds like a kind of high school debater taking an extremely unpopular, weird position for the sake of a debating championship, just putting one side of the case.
Yeah, as he spoke, and particularly when he was doing the Q&A and sort of attacking reporters for daring to ask him questions, I sort of felt Michael Gove on steroids. I felt Michael Gove in there. Well, you're right. It was a sort of debating thing. I'm not saying that Michael Gove isn't a lot cleverer than Pete Hegseth. But let me just read you a few of the things he said.
And I think one day we may hear these words at a tribunal in an investigation into this war. regardless of what so-called international institutions say, right? So-called international institutions. So that's a way of saying, all you lot bleating on or clutching pearls, as he called it, about international law, we don't give a shit, okay?
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Chapter 5: How is Iran retaliating to the US and Israeli actions?
You start saying, we're going to be part of this war, even if it's only for defensive operations from two bases. You've blurred that line suddenly. Maybe. Suddenly Britain's security is now more at risk. Okay. I actually do think there is a logic to what he did.
And actually, if you think about the history of US-UK relations, the relations between presidents and prime ministers, and you've been critical of Keir, trying to be too close to Trump. I've tried to kind of maybe understand it.
I thought he was very clear that he doesn't want to say the words, and I heard Darren Jones being interviewed this morning, they're desperate to say the words, we think the initial action was illegal. By the way, which clearly they do. What they've said was they have been given advice by the Attorney General that there was no legal basis for the UK to take part in that initial attack, okay?
They think there is a legal basis to take part in defensive operations where UK interests have come under attack, which they have. And so I think this underlines just how bloody hard this is logistically, practically, and politically. But I actually hope, my hope out of this is because I watched a lot of the statement in Parliament yesterday.
And I don't know if you saw it, but I think if you had, you'd have felt actually Keir Starmer was really pushing back at the Americans in a way that thus far he has not. He was essentially saying that, and he didn't want to say in these terms, but essentially he was saying that so far as he is concerned, the UK will not take part in military action that it does not believe to have a legal basis.
And Rory, look at the reaction there's been. Look at the reaction there's been from Trump. Why has he phoned up the Sun and the Telegraph? Yeah, well, that's why I think it's the worst of all worlds. Well, maybe. I think it's really bizarre. I think people were quite proud of him on Saturday. Actually, quite proud of Merz on Saturday.
I mean, there was a brief moment when it looked like at least Britain, France and Germany were taking what I think is the correct position, which only the Spanish government has really laid out, which is you can say this is a really evil, horrendous Iranian regime. And you can also say this is an illegal, reckless war that we want to have nothing to do with.
So that's the correct position, I think, right? Yeah, that's you. Then think on Sunday, oh my God, Starmer's changed his mind. Now we're involved in this in some way because we're allowing him to use his bases for defensive operations. And now we're a legitimate target for the Iranians.
Suddenly you've gone from Saturday where reform and the conservatives are saying, you know, you're weak and lily-livered to saying at last, you know, Starmer's got with the program better late than never. Thank goodness he's now letting the base. Well, they're not saying that. They're really not saying that. That's what they were saying on Sunday. That's what they were saying on Sunday.
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Chapter 6: What is the potential impact of this conflict on the UK and its citizens?
Keir Starmer is having to make the actual decisions about this. Let's take Sanchez. We're going to be speaking to Sanchez quite soon. Now, I agree from the decision that you and I laid out on Saturday, his was the clearest decision. And you and I can both say, yeah, I want to hear that.
What happens in the next few days if in Dubai, an Iranian missile lands on a five-star hotel and a Spanish football team gets taken out, okay? You've got to think through where you might need these alliances. You have to play a little bit Shades of Grey.
I think Keir Starmer on day one, on day one, I think he pushed the boat out as far as he's pushed it thus far, basically saying to Trump, there's no legal basis. We're not taking part. OK, that's quite a big message to put out when you think of the history of the US, UK in these war situations.
Day two, when you've got drones flying at Cyprus, and you've got the Cypriot president phoning Keir Starmer saying, what the fuck is going on here? And they're the current president of the European Union. I think that does change things a little bit. And you have to adapt to that. You can say it's a communication.
If there was a communications issue, it is that he communicated both with the same sense of gravity in the same tone for them. What's the result? Let's step back for a moment and say, let's say we're thinking about UK national interest. The UK national interest basically in this is you don't want to be making an enemy of the US because the US can make life very uncomfortable for you. Correct.
And you don't want to be making an enemy of Iran because Iran can cause chaos in the British streets. So you make your call, right? It's a very difficult call. Yeah. But what I fear he's done is he's managed to piss off both of them. He's taken a position on the US, which he hasn't turned around by his decision on Sunday.
I don't think the US particularly thank him for having come out, said their wars are legal. No, Trump says he took too long. Then on Sunday said, by the way, you can use my airfields for defensive purposes. I don't think we've won any credit from the US for doing that. It's not about winning credit. I don't see that it's about winning credit. Well,
No, no, because this is what the national interest is about here.
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Chapter 7: What does the future hold for Iran and its regional influence?
Let's be blunt, right? Right. So you said- Well, one, we have not joined that war against Iran. But when you have upwards of more than a quarter of a million people, Brits, in that region, you are going to have to deploy some British assets to be part of an operation to take out the potential threat against them. And that's what they're doing. I don't even understand this. What are you saying?
Have we joined it or not? Are we fighting or aren't we? What are we doing? You seem to suggest we are fighting. We're not joining the coalition. We are fighting. What are we doing here? Honestly, I think you're being ridiculous on this.
I think you're so determined basically to say that the position that you hold, which is we should have nothing to do with this, is so right that anybody who disagrees... It's the Spanish position. It's the correct position. That is the Spanish position. No, it's the correct position in your view. It's your view that it's correct. OK, you're not the prime minister.
You're not the cabinet having to sit there thinking, OK, first day, we are pretty clear. There's no legal basis, but we don't want to say that because that's going to piss off big Donald in the White House. But we're not taking part. That pisses him off anyway. OK, but it pisses him off maybe a little bit less.
Day two, they actually feel, not least when they see drones coming in on Cyprus, and they then see, I just listed 14 countries where they're whacking off missiles. Britain cannot just sort of sit that out.
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Chapter 8: How can the UK navigate its foreign policy amidst this chaos?
It's doing so from a defensive perspective. I was in Ukraine last week, right? We talked about Ukraine. I'll tell you one place where this is going to do real damage to our relations with the United States in relation to Ukraine. Because... Oil. The oil price is going to go up because that's a real factor.
Trump probably won't have thought about it, but it's going to go up and Russia is going to start to make more money. At some point in the coming weeks, we're going to have to go back to Trump and say, please don't pull the plug on the intelligence. What Sanchez has done is quite easy for Sanchez to do.
I think for the British Prime Minister or the French President or the German Chancellor, we'll see what Merz says in Germany today, they are riding quite a few horses at the same time. And the clarity that you're calling for, I think, is totally naive. We're not going to agree on Starmer, because obviously you have a very different position on this.
I think he's made a huge mistake, and I think he's ended up in the worst of all worlds. I think he's pissed off both the US and the Iranians with very little benefit for Britain, and I don't think Britain will be safer as a result. We've pissed off the Iranians for the entirety of our existence. I wouldn't worry too much about that.
Where you're right is he doesn't want the Yanks to be falling out, and he doesn't want the Iranians to be whacking off missiles. If the Iranians saw an opportunity tomorrow to take out a few Brits somewhere, they would do it. British forces have to be alive and alert to that. Our intelligence agencies have to be alive and alert to that.
And if something happened in the next few days, Rory, if something happened that hit Britain's interests, you just watch the avalanche against Keir Starmer. And how will his decision to let the Americans fly from Diego Garcia make any difference to that? I don't know that it will. I don't know because, you know, we'll have to see.
Well, you seem to be suggesting somehow that's relevant to the question of how we respond when Iran attacks British troops. I just don't see why he needed to do that. Look, he's asked first time. He says no. He's asked second time and he says yes for these limited purposes in which we're going to be participating ourselves, defensive operations against threats to us. Right.
You don't want to see that there may become circumstances where that becomes the right decision, not the wrong decision. It's not black and white, this. I don't think any of these things are black and white. We're just being asked to use our judgment here. But you're defending him. You're defending him. You're defending him very strongly here, Alistair. I'm defending him.
You're not saying it's a difficult decision. I am saying it's a difficult decision. I might not have made it. You're giving us the talking points, essentially, for the cabinet. That's their view, right? No, Rory, don't insult me. Well, let's hear some criticism, then, if you see it as balanced. Rory, we're having an agreeable disagreement because I think you're being both naive and unfair.
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