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Chapter 1: What is the main preview for the NFC Championship Game?
Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I am your host, Shiel Kapadia. Today, we are breaking down the NFC Championship game, Rams vs. Seahawks, Part 3.
Chapter 2: How does the Seahawks offense match up against the Rams defense?
Rams offense vs. Seahawks defense. Such a fun matchup there. And then, of course, a little Sam Darnold talk. How much will he have to do in this football game? We'll get into all aspects of the matchup. And then at the end, I will give you my picks. for the Ringer 107 contest as that winds down. All right, returning for this two-parter is ESPN's Ben Solak.
Let's take a break and we will come back with Ben. The Ringer NFL show is presented by FanDuel.
Chapter 3: What strategies will the Rams offense use against the Seahawks defense?
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Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, we are back here with ESPN's Ben Solak. Once again, finishing our previews of Championship Weekend. We're doing the NFC Championship game today. Solak, Aaron Schatz of FTN tweeted out that this is the best NFL matchup of the last 47 years by DVOA.
Chapter 4: What impact does DVOA have on this matchup?
Does that surprise you? Are you like, that makes sense? What was your reaction? I was a little surprised by that.
Well, I'm not surprised by it because DVOA is like catching all three phases there. I think it's catching special teams as well. Yes, it is. Yeah, for like that specific sort of a measurement. And just like there are something to like about pretty much every single unit in this game.
Rams special teams are kind of reaching just based off the improvements since they made the special teams coaching change. But in general, Seahawks defense, just a masterpiece of a unit. Just so much fun to watch. Rams offense, It's the coolest offense that they've been running there, I think, in McVay's entire tenure, arguably. Like, it's just, these are stellar units.
And then you have, like, Rams defense. The Chris Shulav at all. Like, you know, rising head coaching candidate. And the way they've retooled and reimagined that group. They're doing a lot of the stuff that, like, is really hard to do with the light boxes. And then the Seahawks offense is a perfect unit. No, but it's got the Clint Kubiak aspect. It's got the JSN aspect.
Like, there is nothing about this No particular area of this game where I look at a unit and I say, this unit will fail to win the game for the team. This unit is incapable of taking over the game for the case of the team. I always use the phrase, there's some universes where this happens or that happens. In Ram Seahawk Part 3, every universe, it's like Doctor Strange multiverse, dude.
Every possible thing can happen in this game because the talent level is so high.
Great year for DVOA. I mean, you know, people are doing a lot of EPA, but hey, last two teams standing in the NFC, they've had those as the two best teams for a long, long time.
The boys are buzzing about DVOA. That's the talk of the town, DVOA.
That's right. You know, this is how you get the viewers, Solak, on Netflix. You lead into the DVOA. All right, let's start with the juiciest part of this matchup. You mentioned it. Rams offense. Rams offense.
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Chapter 5: How does Sam Darnold's performance affect the Seahawks' chances?
versus Seahawks defense. Rams offense in week 16. I don't know if everyone remembers this. Played really, really well, even though they blew the game. Basically the best performance by far against the Seahawks defense. Week 11, they won the game, but the Rams offense was kind of put in a blender by that Seahawks defense. So Sean McVay, go inside the mind of Sean McVay here.
He looks at those two games. He looks at how just dominant this Seahawks defense looks right now. What is his game plan? What is he focused on? What does he need to be ready to adjust on going into this matchup?
first and foremostly, let's put this team in the dirt if we have a lead. They should have won week 11. They should have won week 16, right?
Chapter 6: What can we expect from the Seahawks run game against the Rams?
Both times they had these big leads. Week 11 comes down to a field goal miss. Week 16 comes down to an overtime two-point conversion. Both times the Seahawks got their way back into the game. The first game, you know, a little bit less of an amazing comeback. The second game, you're up by 16 points in the fourth quarter. You know what I'm saying?
And they defensively started playing a lot off and giving up free access underneath. And they let Donald, I think, get a little bit of confidence back. Like, number one thing, you have led these games both times. It's the postseason. Kill them, right? Like, you know, you said of Broncos-Patriots yesterday, this is not like a step on their neck sort of a game.
This is a step on their neck sort of a game for the Rams.
But is that in McVay's DNA? Because, I mean, last week... That's why I'm saying it, Shield! Yeah, I mean, last week, that was just incredible where it comes down to the end and I was ready and I like McVay as much as the next guy and one of the best coaches in the last, whatever, 20 years. I think if I had to pick any coach to run my franchise, he might be my number one pick right now.
However, those moments killed me and I thought he got over the hump this year. He was being more aggressive. It was like, oh my God, he's found it. He's changed. And then the end of that Bears game, he turtles with Matthew Stafford. I was so positive they were going to lose. I was so positive. Oh my God, that third down, he's running the football and then they don't even try to score at the end.
So it's a good note. It's a good point. I don't know that he will approach it with that mentality.
Now, in terms of what changed for them offensive success-wise, in the first game, they had the big runs early, but Stafford had 4.6 yards per attempt. In the second game, 9.6, right? More than doubled. If you look at success rate or if you look at completion percentage, it wasn't really that big of an improvement.
It's not like they, you know, oh, just like figure something out and they hit it reliably or Stafford was like hitting every one of his throws. It's that they just, they were willing to be a lot more aggressive pushing the ball. And Seattle's defense, has the lowest air yards per attempt for opposing quarterbacks facing them.
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Chapter 7: How does the Rams defense plan to pressure Sam Darnold?
Structurally, this defense tricks you, baits you, convinces you, you know, whether honorably or dishonorably, to throw the ball underneath, and then they rally up and they tackle unbelievably. And one of the things about the Rams is that the Rams don't have actually a lot of, like, yards after the catch guys in those underneath target ranges, right?
Like, when they throw the ball to Tyler Higby on the flat or, like, Kyron Williams on the swing, they're not bad at all. But then these are not like, you know, go create explosives, make six guys miss. Their yards after the catch come when they get throws over the middle of the field, intermediate to deep, and they hit those guys on the run.
And so the Rams, I think, decided to kind of swim against the current and cut against the grain of the Seahawks' defense and say, we're going to push the football, right? Stafford had one deep attempt in that first game. He had six deep attempts in that second game. You're going to miss some. You're going to have some three and outs. You understand that.
But if you can get that hit between the linebackers and you get Pukunekua running in space, the Seahawks are not accustomed to dealing with that degree of explosive passes, right? They've been one of the best defenses in preventing explosives over the last 15 years, not just the last year.
And so you look at your guy in Stafford, who obviously were four years removed or five years removed from the golf trade and like, oh, this will allow you to do more in the dropback game and like how he changed the offense.
But you look at your guy in Stafford and you say, the reason we play postseason football, the reason we're here this late in the season is because you are capable of making throws that a lot of guys aren't. And we're going to ask you to make those throws, spectacular ones, to Pukunukuwa over the middle of the field, take advantage of these linebackers, and that's how we're going to win.
Now, did you watch the Panthers game? Did you watch the Bears game? Stafford not necessarily hitting the way he was hitting a month, two months ago. So that's a little bit of a thinner conversation, but it's what you got to do. You have to try to punch these Seahawks where they're strong because you can't play their game defensively. They're too good.
You can't just, yeah, you can't methodically move the ball down the field. It's almost like, did you ever do like a backyard football game where it's like wherever you caught the ball, that's where you started the next down. That's almost what it's like to face the Seahawks. It's just like, you know, we've seen it time and again, it feels like they're playing with 16 players out there.
And they're the best short yardage defense in football on downs of two and less. They have like a 52% conversion rate allowed. It's unbelievable.
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Chapter 8: What predictions do the hosts make for the NFC Championship Game?
So that's where you got to go.
You mentioned the Rams offense as of late, and I'm curious about this, curious what you think about it, because it feels to me like they are not the same offense they were for much of the season. I can't tell you this is exactly why. Maybe you can tell me, but even if you look at it statistically...
You look at the last four games, they haven't played great here in the postseason when you just look at how they're playing offensively. They had a very good offensive game week 18 against the Cardinals. Week 17 was not great. The game against the Panthers was not great. And this last week against the Bears was not great when you look at it offensively. statistically?
Is it just a matter of, like you mentioned, is Stafford just, hey, he's an old quarterback. There's going to be some ups and downs this late into a season. Is there something you see that they're doing differently? Something that defenses are doing differently?
How do you kind of go into this game thinking, are they the offense we've seen all season that was one of the best in the NFL or kind of the one that for the last month has been way more up and down and inconsistent?
Yeah, I'm worried that Stafford's hurt to some degree, right? Just because... And the finger, yeah. Yeah, finger. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the back hurts, right?
Something else.
Just like even if you take away... Let's say you had never seen the finger got hit against the Panthers. Cameras never picked it up. I tell you that 36, 37, 35, 36, I think, 36-year-old quarterback who started the season with back issues is seeing his play deteriorate in the 18th, 19th, 20th, and 21st weeks of the season. What's the most likely explanation?
Right.
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