George Friedman Predicts the Next 50 Years of Global Affairs and the Importance of Space Domination
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What is the Future of US Space Dominance and Satellite Technology?
You believe the United States can remain dominant in space over the next 50 years? We are dominant in space. Our technology is way ahead of us, but we're modest, deliberately so. We understate our capabilities.
Feels like, though, there's got to be some hard pivot or something. You know, there's some disaster that resets people's expectations.
It's called Donald Trump. i think that's what it did what i'm saying is he's the wrecking ball that lincoln was and the wrecking ball that roosevelt was and jackson was he's shifting the country we have these incredible problems i wrote a book called the storm before the calm we're in that storm and after the storm we enter a very different place
George, thank you for doing this. So you have made a career of predicting the future, and I think that you've done a better job than anyone I've met in predicting sort of the big picture movements of nations. Clearly we're in, and I hope we can talk about this in a transition away from the post-war order, but I just want to start at the end. Where do you think the United States will be in 50 years?
Well, I think the United States is withdrawing not to isolationism, but to Fortress America. It's interesting that the Mexican president called for Fortress North America.
Yes.
And it was a very wise move. We were engaged, forced to be engaged in the wars because the United States cannot be invaded. Canada can't invade us, no matter if they'd like to now. Mexico can't invade us. It's the command of the sea that's our defense. When the Germans started U-boats in the First World War, sinking Lusitania, that's when we invaded, intervened. When the British Navy looked like it was going to fall in the hands of the Germans by invasion, that's when we got agitated. When the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, that's where we were agitated. so we're a unique country enormously wealthy and immune from attack except from the sea so our basic strategy has to be command of the scene now when the russians ended world war ii we were terrified that they would conquer europe not because we love the europeans but because what if they had control of the atlantic ports in france what would the russian navy do So we built a forward strategy.
Instead of waiting for that to happen, we built NATO. And NATO existed primarily to block the Russian entry into the Atlantic. We had to rebuild Europe in order to make it viable. And they lost their empire, and that became the third world, officially. And we fought constantly with the Russians, hand-to-hand combat, sort of covert operations, trying to block them. And that's, for the last 80 years, what we did. Well, Russia proved in Ukraine that it is not going to be able to occupy Ukraine. It can't occupy Europe. And the Europeans have had a free ride, and I think that's pretty true. And our commitment is to the defense of the United States. The major danger to the United States is, of course, nuclear war. And that battle is fought in space.
Satellites sensing launches, being able to do mad mutually assured destruction and so on. Next 50 years will be about a much less integrated U.S. with the world. Not isolated, not certainly trading intensely with countries. But we have spent the past 85 years in constant warfare, small, large, covert, overt. I participate in some of that and it was exhausting. So the country really doesn't have to do that. So what I see happening is two things. One, the United States taking on a role it had for most of its history. as a country that is self-sustaining, highly trading, involved in the world, certainly on alert with the great military. But the battle, the next battles will be fought in space. This sounds strange, but it would have been strange if the next war in Europe would be fought in the air and that nuclear weapons would arise. We were protected from nuclear war by mutually assured destruction. It was the one war in which the leaders themselves would be killed on the first round. We would hit and they would hit. And so there was no war because we had 30 minutes warning.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
Where Will the United States Be in 50 Years?
1:03
2
What is the Future of US Space Dominance and Satellite Technology?
0:00–9:52
3
Is the Pentagon Overstating China's Military Capabilities?
9:52–15:23
4
What Does George Friedman Predict About the Current 'Storm Before the Calm'?
15:23–20:50
5
How Are American Universities Changing and Affecting Society?
20:50–24:52
6
Will There Be a War Between the US and China for Global Dominance?
24:52–27:56
7
How Does Economic Dependence on China Affect US National Security?
27:56–1:25:34
Speakers
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