The Zach Lowe Show
Huge Playoff Takeaways With Kirk Goldsberry, Plus a Deep Dive Into Wolves-Lakers With Jon Krawczynski
Thu, 24 Apr 2025
Zach is joined by Kirk Goldsberry for some reactions to what they’ve seen so far and to talk about what to look for tonight (1:04). They then look at the physicality of Warriors-Rockets (39:05), and discuss how the Bucks can turn things around (56:23). Later, Jon Krawczynski joins to break down everything happening in the puzzling Timberwolves-Lakers series as we head into Game 3 (1:09:43). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Chapter 1: What are the biggest takeaways from Wednesday's playoff games?
How are you? I am terrific, Zach. Always great to be with you during the playoffs especially, but also running on less sleep than normal. Sleep.
Who needs it? Actually, I do. Okay, briefly, last night, here are the most important things that happened. We'll circle back. We'll circle back to all this stuff. Jalen Brown, massive statement. I'm here. I'm healthy. I'm ready to explode for 42 minutes with Jason Tatum out. And massively important sign for the Celtics, bloodied Kristaps Porzingis was a fun thing that happened.
But my God, the physicality in these playoffs. But if you're going to bookmark two things that happened last night for the long term, one is Jalen Brown announcing, I'm good. We're good. No Jason Tatum, no problem. Orlando's offense still stinks. Franz Wagner's jumper still busted. Hitch still present. 2-0 Boston. Thing number two, obviously Jimmy Butler's pelvic contusion. Undercut accidentally.
I was glad no one tried to make a thing out of it. Ahmed Thompson lost his balance. There's a collision. Jimmy Butler falls. plays eight minutes. The Rockets win a rock fight where there are like nine near fights and scrums and Tari Eason threw a towel at Pat Spencer, who was like implausibly involved because Butler was out. Pajemski was saying, Jonathan Kaminga played.
They ran out of guys and Jonathan Kaminga actually got on the, Steve Kerr looked on the bench like, Is Bogan available?
No? Kaminga, get in. And he stunk too, much to my chagrin as a Jonathan Kaminga fanboy. Rockets win, Butler prognosis, TBD. And then in the other game that probably nobody watched, Donovan Mitchell scored 10 points in two minutes to ice. A frisky Heat-Cavs game, which we will talk about. Those are the headlines from last night. 1-1 Warriors-Rockets of all those series is the fun one to watch.
But let's briefly hit tonight's game. It's 9.30 in the morning.
I don't want to belabor these games because they're coming on tonight but we have to start with the 10 p.m game Clips Nuggets game three first playoff game in Inuit Dome it's going to be rocking this has been the series of the first round and the biggest story in the NBA is Kawhi Leonard you were up close with the Kawhi Leonard experience as it petered out in San Antonio um
What is it like for you to watch this guy look like all of a sudden peak Kawhi is back pouring in thirty nine points, 15 of 19 shooting, getting to any spot, any matchup and just getting steals looking like, oh, yeah, this is the guy that I voted for for MVP eight years ago. What has it been like for you to watch this?
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Chapter 2: Why is Kawhi Leonard's current playoff performance so remarkable?
and playing 40 plus minutes whatever the Clippers need I'm like you I never thought I would see it again I gave up on it even as they finished the season roaring to a whatever record in their last 30 games saying to the world we can compete with anybody in the west maybe even Oklahoma City who we might see in the next round and oh my god the thunder holy crap um
Even as that was happening, my brain has just been so conditioned to Kawhi getting injured and bad things happening to the Clippers. And Kawhi has not finished a season healthy since the bubble five years ago. That's the last time he played in the Clippers' last game of the season. And so I just my brain just wouldn't let me consider that this was actually a tenable possibility.
And knock on wood, it's only been two playoff games. And, you know, we've seen him play two, three, four, six playoff games and then something bad happens. But this is unbelievable. I mean, this is a two time finals MVP, a two time defensive player of the year. You mentioned one point, whatever, six points per shot. 29 isos in this series against the Nuggets. 1.375 points per possession.
That is just bonkers. And it's like... Aaron Gordon, sometimes if there's an adjustment I'm looking for, not looking for, but I'm interested to see how Denver guards the when Kawhi brings Jamal Murray's guy into the two man action. They've been mostly defaulting to just, all right, we're going to switch. We don't want to get ourselves in rotation and giving him the Jamal Murray matchup.
And Jamal Murray's got no shot. I mean, Kawhi Leonard is like a tank running over him. And I'm watching these games thinking, man, do you not want to – I know you don't want to get in rotation, but it's like if Norm Powell's the screener – I know Norm Powell can flare out for threes. Throw in some hedges. Make Kawhi pass. Make Kawhi think. Make Norm Powell make plays in space or whoever it is.
I'm interested to see that. But this is like – I mean, it's no secret that I love Kawhi as a basketball player. Yeah. I was one of eight people who voted him MVP in 2017, the year Russ won. He's played some of the best games I've ever seen in big stages, including Game 6 in Dallas in 2021, one of the best games I've ever seen anyone play for the Clippers.
That was for the Clippers, but for any team. And I said this with Bill the other day. I don't remember the last time I was so dead wrong about a team as I was about the Clippers. The Thunder are the franchise of the year in the NBA. If you win 68 games, that's what you are. The Clippers are the co-franchise of the year.
For this team to lose Paul George in a move that was clearly like, we just don't think this year is over. We don't know what's coming next, but this year is over. And win 50 games. in the West, not the JV East, like, yay, the Bulls won 37 games in the East, okay? This is the real varsity NBA. And go toe-to-toe with the Nuggets. and be the better team, I think, through two games.
And I just, I thought, I took the under. I thought it was over. I'm like, without Paul George, it's going to be like Harden holding down the fort when Kawhi is inevitably injured. This feels just like a nice little cute placeholder until we figure out what the next iteration of the team is. And here they are. And they nailed every free agent signing. Derek Jones, Chris Dunn, on and on.
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Chapter 3: How are the Clippers and Nuggets adjusting in their intense series?
You take one of those three guys off the floor, Michael Porter Jr., who responded nicely in Game 2, The shooting quotient dials down to an urgent crisis level. And they do it for defense. They do it because it allows Jamal Murray to guard Chris Dunn instead of Norm Powell. But I'm just, you know, I'm fascinated by how they respond. Can Jokic get a little more momentum going in the post?
He's starting to get, I mean, Zu, Zu's unbelievable on both ends of the floor. I'm so happy for him. He might make all NBA. He might actually make it. Stan Van Gundy mentioned he voted for him, third team. He makes Jokic work so hard, and yet 22 post-ups for Jokic in the series, 1.28 points per possession, or 1.25 points per possession thereabouts. Very good number.
He's starting to get a little momentum there. You know, Denver's – this was one of the first games – where I thought Jokic looked tired at points in the game. We played the entire second half, and I flagged a couple of pick and rolls that I think were in the third quarter. And as I mentioned, Murray-Jokic two-man game is a very stressful play.
The Clippers' default strategy against that has been to kind of late switch it, to try to contain it, and then late switch it. And then Jokic can exploit that with post-ups on their guards, etc. A couple times in the third quarter, Jokic did something which he rarely ever does, which is not pop to three and not roll to floater range. He just kind of stood 19, 20 feet from the basket.
And you can see Zubats being like, oh, awesome. I can just drop back. And like worst case scenario is he gets an open 19 footer or semi open. And so I'm interested in how much gas does he have enough gas to do this over and over again? 43, 44, 45 minutes. Who's going to help him along for the ride? How do they respond? And then. Yeah, I don't know. What are you looking for from either team?
I mean, what's an adjustment? What's something?
Yeah, I think this is breaking for LAC. I think one of the—I've never called them LAC before just now.
One of my least favorite chants in the whole league when they do, L-A-C. It's not happening. It's a horrible chant. Don't do it.
Well, on a macro scale, maybe this weekend, not doing X's and O's for just a second, maybe this is the weekend the Clippers fans get a real identity. This is the biggest moment for their new arena, their fan base, finally out of the shadows of the Los Angeles Lakers, hosting incredible games in their brand new building. Maybe the LAC era is here.
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Chapter 4: Why are the Oklahoma City Thunder dominating the Memphis Grizzlies?
Yeah, no notes. I don't know how much you can learn from a series against said Grizzlies team. But one thing I think that's important, sort of building on what you said, is if we anticipate this Nuggets-Clippers series to go six or seven, you're getting a wounded older team in round two. And I fully expect...
OKC to take care of business this weekend in Memphis and get another long period of rest and get ready for another beleaguered opponent to come in. Whoever wins this Clippers Nuggets series will probably be in a little bit rougher condition than the young bucks from OKC. I love their depth. And that seems like a cliche. But what you just said, they have optionality. Depth gives you a few things.
It gives you optionality with the lineups, but it also gives you fresher legs on defense later in the game throughout a series. Their ability to play 7, 8, 9 guys, 10 guys and not miss a beat, I think... In short, Zach Lowe, the Oklahoma City Thunder are built for war.
And I can't wait for them to get to the next round, in part because I want to see them try to do it against a little bit better opponent. But I've seen nothing so far to dissuade me from the simple idea that they're going to win the Western Conference.
Could you imagine if they sweep Memphis and Nuggets Clippers is like a six or seven game just slugfest? What game one of that following series is going to feel like? The Thunder with like eight days of rest just coming out, growling. They're also just such a smart team. Just like a small example. This is one of my favorite things in the NBA. Nobody does this. Not enough people do this. Game two.
By the way, you know it's bad for the Grizzlies when my notes say things like, should they play Jay Huff? We've reached the stage of the where's Jay Huff stuff. So there was a post. They tried to post up Jaron Jackson in the first quarter. I think he had a J-dub on him. Not a mismatch. In fact, it's almost...
Getting guarded by Jalen Williams in the post is almost like a misdemeanor assault, and I mean that in a good way. And Santi Aldama had the ball, and he was going to entry pass to Triple J. He picked up his dribble like 30 feet from the rim. SGA was on Santi Aldama. SGA saw that, and nine times out of ten, the player in SGA's spot is just... you know, just it's another game, whatever.
He's guarding normally. He lets the guy throw the entry pass. SGA saw Santi Aldama pick up his dribble, took three strides back and was like basically doubling Jaron Jackson Jr. from the front. It was just like, you're not going to throw the ball in. Go do something else. And the Grizzlies were like, oh, you're not just going to give us the road entry pass. You're going to be this mean.
And the whole possession just died. I love watching the Thunder. They're incredible. the Zach Lowe Show is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA playoffs are finally here and there's no better way to be a part of the action than with FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook.
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Chapter 5: What challenges are the Knicks facing against the Pistons?
Obviously, if he's out for an extended period, the whole series shifts into Houston's favor. Pajemski was also sick. And the other thing that happened was credit Jalen Greene. who took a whole bunch of shit after game one. He was awful in game one. Responded with the most meaningful game of his career in the NBA. 38 points on 13 of 25 shooting. 8 of 18 on threes. His shot selection was better.
Very few, if any, isos where he's just driving at Steph wildly. Much more pick and roll, much more catch and shoot threes. And look, I don't know, again, like it's going to depend on injuries and who plays and who doesn't play. The Quinton Post minutes were a gift for Jalen Green. They were a gift for the Rockets because they gave them a place to attack defensively.
And Quentin Post had no shot in the pick and roll, no matter what he did against Jalen Green. Kavon Looney didn't really have a shot in the pick and roll. And the more those big guys have to play, Golden State can finagle different ways. They can play zone. They can put Post on, you know, whatever, Jabari Smith Jr., just anybody but the main screen center.
They'll find him and they'll punish him one way or another. But Jalen Green played a calm, sound game today. And the Rockets defense is what it is. I want to shout out Tari Eason, who 14 points off the bench. I think they could actually go to him a little bit here and there if Steph is guarding him, which he is. He has a decent power game. He's made his threes. He's a menace in transition.
You could not keep him off the boards. And he's also had to guard Steph a little bit because of cross matches. Like if Steph is on him and there's a stop, he's stuck on Steph. He's done that really well when he's had to do it. Obviously, they want Thompson and Van Vliet on Steph primarily. But Eason's done a really good job. And just...
The Rockets are just going to – it's just unpleasant to play against them. I don't know. Do you have any takeaways? It's hard to have major takeaways from a game where one of the three most important players plays eight minutes and is injured, and they have to go so deep into their rotation. But did you have any –
Any takeaways from this game that's going to make you like, okay, now I'm watching for that in game three as we go to the Bay?
Yeah, I mean, I'm with you. If Butler can come back, I'll be interested in seeing if Golden State can win this series. If he doesn't come back, I think it's curtains. Because what I've seen is Houston is just much deeper. And if you look at the weak links on the Houston Rockets, they're a lot stronger than the weak links on the Golden State Warriors. And I think Pod's led...
the Warriors in rebounds in game one. His absence was no small issue here either. And I know he was technically out there. I hope he feels better. I hope Jimmy Butler gets better and is able to play because this series should go seven games. But I think if Jimmy Butler is limited in any way, the stats point to that being curtains for the Golden State Warriors season. I think...
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Chapter 6: How physical is the Warriors-Rockets series and what are the implications?
We need to have some more reliable shooting out there if we're going to compete with the best of the East. And I would say they have the potential to be the best team in Florida for a long time. We just talked about the Heat.
Southeast Division champions, baby. 41-41.
Hang the banner. what I would say to Orlando is like, you're in a new phase of team building. You need to, you need to learn from these games. And what do I learn? I think it was one of 15, one of 16, two of 15 from Franz and KCP, uh, their supposed shooting and their starting group last night. Um, so, So I don't know what's going to happen in the next two games.
I saw our boss, Bill Simmons, was irate at the physicality of coming from the Orlando Magic. He took to Twitter slash X last night and accused the Orlando Magic of being like children in a bouncy house, flying around and torpedoing into his beloved Celtics players.
I'll tell you this. I won't go in a bouncy house. I won't go in. If there's more than two people in a bouncy house, you might as well call an ambulance immediately. When I go to children's birthday, but first of all, I was at a children's birthday party once when there was a gust of wind and the entire bouncy house tipped over and there was like screaming children, screaming parents, bouncy house.
When we moved into the burbs, We have a decent sized backyard. I wanted a trampoline. And our insurance guy was like, under no circumstances should you get a trampoline. A bouncy house is like 10 times worse than a trampoline. I won't go in it, Kurt Goldsberry. I will not go in a bouncy house.
Now imagine if Goga was in that bouncy house, how dangerous that would be. And you're jumping around and all of a sudden you're Kristaps Porzingis. The line of the night, was it Scalabrini? On the Celtics broadcast, I want to give it credit. I'm sorry if I get this wrong. Maybe it was the play-by-play guy.
But somebody, you know, when Porzingis is there bleeding from his forehead, somebody said the unicorn has lost his horn. And it was just perfect because it was right there where the unicorn horn should have been. But you just hope the Celtics come out of this in one piece. We want the full title defense. And you already said it. We lost Tatum for a little bit here.
Porzingis, that was pretty scary. And you just hope that the Celtics come out of this in one piece.
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Chapter 7: What impact does Jimmy Butler's injury have on the Warriors-Rockets matchup?
That's where I was going to go. I think the Pacers deserve more credit than we've given them, not only this year, but last year. Let's not forget they went pretty far last year. I think that team still has a great identity as sort of a fast-paced, smart offense that can spread the floor and score and play really fast. I think they put your defense in tough positions.
I think they deserve credit for creating those kinds of, open threes and mismatches that are exposing this Bucs defense. Tyrese Halliburton, I kind of left him for dead middle of the season. Nope. He's good. He's come back strong. He was on my own NBA team.
I can't believe he was a must for me.
I don't know if he's going to make it, but he was a must for me. So I love watching that team. I think Rick Carlisle deserves a little more credit and conversation than he gets as building this group up. But, you know, I think they if they come out of the series, I think it's a really intriguing matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
So I think that the Pacers deserve credit for being one of the more unique, more powerful offenses in the league and getting through and potentially exposing this Bucks team for being as mediocre as it currently looks.
The Bucs have not had any stretch this year in which they sustainably were like a very good team. They had stretches where they were a good team, but there was never a stretch you could point to saying, oh, if they just bottle that 10-game stretch, that's a team that can win two playoff rounds. It's never happened. That's why I picked the Pacers in this series. Dame, no Dame, whatever.
We'll see, though. Like, if Dame comes back and gets his win, it's a different story. To wit... Giannis as ball screener has only set 26 picks through two games. That's probably not enough because it's their best offense. 1.3 points per possession directly out of those plays. So when Giannis or the ball handler shoots or one pass away, 1.5 points per possession total.
More Dame Giannis pick and roll. A couple other notes on this one. Indiana has 16 turnovers in two games. I think Milwaukee was dead last at forcing turnovers in the regular season. That's partly their personnel. They're old and slow. It's partly the way Doc likes to play. Indiana is just going to get a shot every possession. That's an 8% turnover rate. That's basically nothing.
And just keep an eye on how they guard Giannis post-ups. They're hard doubling Giannis in the post. And the Bucs showed some adjustments in game two. They gave them a couple of touches at the nail where it's harder to double. They changed the way their cutters go through and who's one pass away to make the reads easier. But all that's window dressing.
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Chapter 8: What are the key insights from the Miami-Cleveland and Boston-Orlando series?
passed up the easy matchups that were out there and, and made it harder on themselves. And that's why they were just, you know, what they shoot. Yeah. 38%, 20% from three. It was, it was grueling to watch.
I'm going to read you some numbers. You ready? Please. Second, second spectrum tracking numbers. This is Luca pick and rolls with go bear as the guy guarding the screener. Let's go. OK, because Gobert is getting flambéed, flambéed, lambasted. Did I just make up a word? I think you did. Because everyone sees it, right? Everyone sees it.
It's very visible when a ball handler gets Gobert and Gobert is a little stilted. He's a big dude, man. Like those big dudes, it's a lot of limbs to move around. It doesn't always look great. And, you know, you get roasted on a crossover, commit a foul, step back three. Like, it's very visible. It's very obvious. And so it's the talking point after game two.
Oh, four-time defensive player of the year. Out of his comfort zone. Boy, oh, boys, here we go again. Why is he this generational defender if he can't match up? Here are the numbers. Game one, Luka Doncic against Rudy Gobert, 15 picks. 0.615 points per possession out of those picks directly. 0.77 points per possession overall. That is... Is that good? No, that's horrible. That's not good, is it?
Game two, 23 picks. 0.561. points per possession directly out of them. 0.632 points per possession overall. If you had that points per possession for a full game, for a full season, you're a G league team. You're a college team. Now, very small sample. Those numbers are somewhat deflated by spot up shooters, two passes away, missing wide open threes that it creates.
You saw in game two, the Wolves are concerned enough that they're trying to switch Gobert out of that pick and roll while his man is on the way to screen. You'll see him point someone else, get there. So I'm not saying he's been great. I'm not saying it's not an issue. Luka has been, I've been actually very impressed with Luka's level of decisiveness.
When he gets Gobert on him, he's not pulling the ball out and dancing and taking a million step back threes. He'll do one jab, step back Gobert, lean back like he's going to shoot. And the minute he stands you up, he's blowing by you and drawing a foul. He's been very good about that. I'm just saying the numbers are the numbers.
There's no argument that go bears defense and all the stops all the times there was a steal. He had all the times where he forces a pass out and the defense isn't compromised. People just don't notice it because they want to notice the bloopers. Basically the numbers are what they are. This has not been a problem. In fact, I will posit this.
If Gobert is a problem in this series, it's on offense where he's a problem. And he's a problem because the Lakers are going to switch everything. Minnesota is going to pick their matchup. The Lakers are going to zone up. And it's much easier to zone up when one guy is sitting in the dunker spot and the guy who just screened for Ant
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