A rebel group changed the course of Syria's long civil war when it seized Aleppo this past weekend. The Syria Report's Jihad Yazigi tells us what motivates the group's canny and mysterious leader. This episode was produced by Peter Balonon Rosen and Miles Bryan, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Anouck Dussaud, engineered by Patrick Boyd and Rob Byers, and hosted by Noel King. Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast Support Today, Explained by becoming a Vox Member today: http://www.vox.com/members A rebel fighter celebrates after they seized control of Aleppo, Syria this past weekend. Photo by Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Chapter 1: What historical context shaped Syria's civil war?
Way back in 1982, Syria's dictator Hafez al-Assad brutally crushed an uprising in the city of Hama. He sealed the city, he cut off food and electricity, and then his army started shelling, and then he sent in troops. This was long before Twitter, so while thousands of people died, it took time for that massacre to be fully understood. There were only a few journalists there.
But it was a huge death toll, and the smoke hung over the city. It was a very frightening place. I did see it. I guess I'm sorry I saw it in many ways.
As dictators do, Hafez handed Syria over to his son, Bashar al-Assad. Like his dad, he crushes dissent with violence. But earlier today, Syrian rebels entered Hama. They say they've taken that city back from al-Assad. In the past week, this rebel group has changed the course of a 13-year civil war. And the story of how they did that is coming up on Today Explained.
Chapter 2: What recent developments occurred in Aleppo?
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This is Today Explained.
Jihad Yazidi is the editor-in-chief of the Syria Report. It's an online publication. For 23 years, he's written about Syria, including, of course, the country's civil war, in which rebels are fighting President Bashar al-Assad.
The conflict in Syria began in 2011, initially as a popular uprising against the regime.
They are calling it the Aleppo volcano. In Syria's second largest city, protesters are determined to bring down their regime. They took to the streets on Thursday, defying heavily armed security forces.
As dictators fell from power following the fervor of the 2011 Arab Spring, peaceful protesters in Syria also demanded a change in leadership.
the initial demands of the population were for, to sum it up pretty in short, was really to demand political liberalization, more political freedoms. That was met actually with very heavy violence from the regime.
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Chapter 3: How did the rebel group's strategy change the conflict?
Syrian activists say more than 1,400 people have been killed since President Bashar al-Assad launched a crackdown on protesters four months ago.
Since the very start, President Assad has had one objective, staying in power. And he's been prepared to do pretty much anything to achieve it.
The opposition took up arms and it has been evolving as a civil conflict for many, many years now.
So basically what is happening now, what we are seeing in the past few weeks, is that one segment of the opposition, which controlled so far a very small part of Syria, and which happens also to have an ideology which is quite radical, very conservative from an Islamic conservative ideology, the organization controlling that part of Syria went on the attack
and took over large parts of northern Syria, including the country's second largest city, and managed within a few days to double the size of the area under their control.
I want you to walk me through what that looked like.
Yes, so what we have seen actually is that group of rebel fighters, so that's not a formal army, comprised of several thousands, probably maybe in the low dozens of thousands, crossing front lines very rapidly with relatively light equipment, military equipment, and taking over areas controlled formally by the Syrian government. So they have managed to move forward quite quickly.
Everybody's assumption is that the initial attack aimed at gaining a few kilometers, at enlarging a bit the area which is under their control. But what happened is actually the defense of the regime, of the government, completely collapsed. So within a day, less than two days at least, they reached the borders of Aleppo, Syria's second largest city.
And it was really unexpected that they would get there that quickly. But what was even more unexpected was that they would be able to take over the city with almost no defense, no fighting, within a couple of days.
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Chapter 4: What were the immediate reactions to the rebel takeover?
An organization such as HTS has a very Islamist radical ideology which it wants to impose on the population it rules, it governs. But it has no ambition to convert non-Muslims or to export its model to other countries. ISIS or Al-Qaeda are transnational organizations.
They don't only want to impose the sharia, the Islamic rule, the Islamic law, on their population, but they want to export their model around the world. They want to convert non-Muslims to Islam, and they are ready to fight for that and to kill for that. That's a big difference. So ISIS and Al-Qaeda are considered, are transnational organizations, considered terrorist organizations.
Now, that's just also to be more precise. HTS technically is considered by the U.S. as a terrorist organization because it was originally affiliated with al-Qaeda.
The organization that launched this offensive over the weekend is a terrorist organization designated as such by the United States. We certainly do not support that organization in any way, shape or form.
What it wants to do now is get delisted. What they have been trying to do is rebrand themselves, but also their whole ideology. I mean, when you read the, listen to the official statements, they are all tending towards that, towards an organization, as I said, that wants only to rule the place it is in and that does not want to fight any other country.
So they remain listed as a terrorist organization, but it is true that in practice, they say they don't want to fight anyone outside their national borders.
Okay, so from the perspective of people who are not in the region, not in Syria, HTS is a less dangerous group. Who is the leader of HTS and what does he want?
Yeah, so the nom de guerre, as we say, of the leader of HTS is Abu Muhammad al-Julani. He's a Muslim Sunni. He originates from southern Syria. He entered the ranks of al-Qaeda. established HDS, and then decided to shift, if you want, his focus into a more nationalist agenda. Joulani is a quite impressive figure.
The area he's ruling, he has been ruling, that northwestern part of Syria, he has been ruling for many years, is probably the best managed part of Syria. So Jolani is quite impressive in terms of what he has succeeded in doing. I do think that at the end of the day, he wants to rule the whole of Syria.
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Chapter 5: What does the future hold for Syria after recent events?
He could think that he can take over power by sheer force, but it would be, in my opinion, very difficult for him to maintain his rule over the country and stabilize it without compromising.
All right, so this is a man who has said repeatedly that he is not a threat to the Western world.
Giuliani, speaking to PBS in 2021, said, quote, most importantly, first and foremost, this region does not represent a threat to the security of Europe and America. This region is not a stage for executing external operations.
That's the argument he's made for getting off of the sanctions list. I'm not interested in what goes on in the United States or in France or in the UK. I'm interested in Syria. His goal is to get rid of Bashar al-Assad. That is also what the United States wants, right?
I'm not sure, Noor. I'm not sure that today the United States' goal is to get Bashar al-Assad out. The United States' stated goal is to get Bashar al-Assad out.
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Chapter 6: Who leads the rebel group now controlling Aleppo?
Nothing has changed with respect to our policy. Assad is a brutal dictator with blood on his hands. Ultimately, what we want to see is a political process forward where the Syrian people get to determine who their leaders are.
But the US goal is to weaken Iran, to protect the borders of Israel, to prevent refugee flows, although it's not a direct threat to the US, but it can be to its allies. if you want a stable country. So indeed, if you want to get Iran out and Bashar cannot distance himself from the Iranians, you would want Bashar out.
But you don't want Bashar out in any case, in any situation, unless you have an alternative. What the US wants is a guy in Damascus whom they can call and who is capable of giving orders to an army, to an armed group, so that when the U.S. says, I want this or I don't want that, they have a guy who can answer and can implement decisions if you want.
One of the weaknesses of the Syrian opposition at the very beginning of the uprising 13 years ago is that it didn't have such a leadership. The US certainly, what it wants is stability, safe border for Israel, weaker Iran. If this is done through Bashar, so Bashar will stay. If Bashar cannot help, so Bashar. I'm not saying the American have the capacity or the willingness to invest into...
kicking him or keeping him, but I'm just trying to answer the question of, do they want him still in power or not? The official stated policy, given the massive crimes widely documented that Bashar al-Assad committed, it's very difficult for you, if you are a Western liberal country, to openly support him. But in practice, What they want is, you know, the least bad option if you want.
So I'm not 100% sure that it is really the aim of the U.S. to get Bashar out of power.
Jihad, you've been covering this terrible war since it began, so 13 years. This week, there was a big change at a moment where it didn't seem like any change was coming. Are there positives here, do you think?
Yes, of course there's something positive. There is something positive in the sense, as I said, that we have seen people freed from prisons. There is something positive because I think that some IDPs and refugees will be able to return home.
positive in the sense that Bashar is weaker and Bashar is an absolutely terrible individual that needs to be himself and his whole regime need to be weakened. Maybe one more positive thing is that there is renewed focus a bit on Syria. But this, of course, has a bad aspect and a positive one. It all depends on how it turns. So, no, I think there are positives.
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