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Chapter 1: What does Andy Burnham's victory in Makerfield mean for Labour?
This is The Guardian.
I do think that the path to number 10 seems clearer than ever.
I do say to my own party, this is a final chance to change.
What comes next, it's all on the table now.
If there is a contest, just to be clear with you, then yes, I will run, I will stand, and I've said repeatedly, I'm not going to walk away from that.
If I was going to make a bet now, I don't think I would be betting on Keir Starmer.
From the Guardians today on Focus, this is The Latest with me, Annie Kelly. So what an absolute barnstormer of a win for Andy Burnham. Pretty seismic. Alexandra Tropping, you're a political correspondent for The Guardian. He came in, he won by a majority of over 9,000 votes, a really decisive win over reform as well. What's going to happen next?
Well, it was a huge night in Ashton and Makefield and I think everybody who's woken up this morning kind of surprised the scale of the victory that Andy Burnham had overnight. I mean, we thought... That it would be much closer than it was. There was a real sense in the Labour camp that this was going to be a big moment and it really delivered. What comes next is really, it's all on the table now.
There was a sense before this election, this by-election in Makerfield, that if Burnham lost, obviously it was going to be a very different situation. Yeah. Also terrible for Labour, but it would have shored up Keir Starmer's position as the leader of the party.
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Chapter 2: How has Burnham's win changed the political landscape?
We saw what happened with the Tories in 2022. UK voters do not like internal fighting. They want people to be getting on with the job. And that's always been Starmer's argument. We need to not have the fight, get on with the job. And I think people will be saying to him behind the scenes now, if you don't want that fight, if you don't want to tear this party apart, it's time for you to leave.
So I do think that the path to number 10 seems clearer than ever. And I mean, what conversations do you think Andy Burnham is going to be having?
And who is he going to be having those conversations with over the weekend?
I mean, that's what, as political reporters, we're all waiting to find out. They will be confident now that he will get to number 10. Obviously, we're several steps ahead of ourselves there. There may well be a leadership contest. There's going to be a leadership contest of some sort, even if Starmer stands aside. Will other people stand against him? Will it be a coronation?
That remains to be seen. But I think Burnham will be and very much setting out his stall, speaking to the people who are already in the cabinet and others that he may want to bring in. He'll also be looking to the people who have been at the heart of his campaign, like Louise Haig and Annalise Midgley. Brilliant team behind him. They have run an astonishing campaign. Tell us a bit about them.
And these are like, you know, the strong northern women who have led this campaign, who have led it with massive efficiency. There's obviously ongoing dismay in the Labour Party that once again, we're talking about who's going to be the next leader of the Labour Party. And once again, there's no women in the picture.
But there are plenty of women behind Burnham who, and you know, Lou Hay being one of them who's featured prominently, I would be very surprised if she wasn't taking up a key role. But there'll be others, you know, Ed Miliband, could he be the next Chancellor? Who Burnham chooses as his next Chancellor will be key.
Rachel Reeves and her team will be putting forward an argument that if he wants to keep the ship steady and one of Burnham's vulnerabilities is that he made this unfortunate comment about being in hock to the bond market. And he's tried to shore up that actually in the last few days. It's interesting.
He's brought in economic advisers from Goldman Sachs and former members of the OBR to show that he is a serious minded politician who wants to stay within the fiscal rules, etc. But I think who he chooses as chancellor, that will really set out what a Burnham cabinet could look like.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of a potential leadership contest?
I think, you know, Burnham is talked about nationalising utility companies, you know, I think we may well see the quick nationalisation of Thames Water, maybe other energy companies. That stuff is very expensive. So just quite how he'll pay for it remains to be seen.
But I think this sense of the state playing a bigger role, but working hand in hand with business has been the image that he's projected in Manchester. And of course, transport is a big one, you know, that he, The thing that we all know Vernon for is that he's got the B networking of buses in Manchester. So I think that's the type of thing that he would like to see on a wider picture.
But it's much easier to do that in a place like Manchester where you've got the control over those things than it is across the country.
And seeing whether he can deliver in Essex or in Kent or in any of these places outside of Manchester as well. And that would be interesting to see if he can extend that out on a national level and appeal to voters.
100%.
And just going back to Makerfield by election, I mean, it was just such a stunning victory for Burnham for all the reasons we've discussed. But has it done something else as well? Do you think it's shown that there is this emerging formula that tactical voting does have the potential to beat reform?
I think it really does. I mean, I think we saw tactical voting in Denton, but in a slightly different way, Gorton and Denton. And I think we saw that again here. Now, Labour supporters who are getting extremely excited about this by-election victory and, you know, let's give them their moment.
Yeah.
They have to remember that this is a very specific place and Burnham is a very specific person for that place. You know, he literally grew up down the road. He's the mayor of Manchester. Everyone knows who he is. He's got this kind of star appeal round there. He is an extraordinary candidate for that by-election.
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Chapter 4: How does Burnham's leadership style differ from Starmer's?
Do you think that this kind of shows that his sheen might be wearing off on voters? Maybe the impact of things like, you know, the £5 million gift is starting to take effect?
I really think that the Guardian's reporting has shifted the dial on this. I mean, I would say this and it's talking to our reporters. But, you know, we reported about this huge gift from this crypto billionaire to Nigel Farage, Christopher Harbourn. And since that point, Farage just went missing. As political observers, we're used to seeing him on a weekly basis.
He takes as many questions as you want. He loves being in the limelight and he's been nowhere to be seen. I think that the sheen may have come off reform slightly. You've seen a situation in Gorton and Denton where it felt like they very much chose the wrong candidate.
Again, in Makerfield, there was huge problems with the reform candidates' past remarks about women and just quite obviously sexist and horrible remarks that he'd made. So I do think there is... It's really exposed some real fault lines in reform. And they've seen a kind of attack... from their right, from Restore, which did eat into their vote to a degree in Ashton-Makerfield.
I mean, it didn't actually emerge to be this huge surge. It wouldn't have mattered, even if those two votes were put together. But it could matter in other constituencies where the electorate is far more to the right. I mean, let's not forget that Makerfield is like... a solid Labour seat. It should be somewhere that Labour wins. So, you know, Farage will point to that this morning.
But he did seem quite crestfallen, didn't he?
Yeah, I was just really surprised by how kind of downbeat the whole thing was. He wasn't coming out swinging at all, was he? And Lexi, if you were going to... I mean, this is kind of, you know, it's a difficult question to ask so early on, but if you were going to put your money on what happens next... What would you say is going to emerge?
Oh no, you put me on the spot. I actually don't know. I've been an outlier in our office because I have said that I think it's still worth putting a bet on Starmer being in place by the end of the year. That seems increasingly unlikely. I didn't actually put that bet on, which is probably for the best.
If I was going to make a bet now, I don't think I would be betting on Keir Starmer still being there. What the Burnham camp really want, I think, is a fairly orderly changing of the guard and perhaps with a coronation of Andy Burnham at Labour Party conference. Fascinating times ahead for sure.
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