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Chapter 1: What were the results of the Makerfield by-election?
To the UK now, where Labour's Andy Burnham has won the crucial Makerfield by-election with a huge majority. The former mayor of Greater Manchester, the so-called King of the North, beat the Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon with just over 9,000 votes to spare with the new hardline Restore Britain party coming a distant third.
This now paves the way for Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer as party leader. For the very latest, I'm joined on the line by London correspondent with the Irish Times, Mark Paul. Morning, Mark. Good morning, David. It was expected to be close. It wasn't.
No, it was a quite stunning victory by Andy Burnham in the end. I mean, this is a part of the world where just a few weeks ago, Labour was 20 percentage points behind Reform UK in the local elections. Andy Burnham flipped that on his head and he won by 20 percentage points over Reform this time around. He almost doubled the majority that they got in their landslide election victory in 2024.
And he absolutely destroyed both of the hard right parties together, Restore Britain and Reform UK. So he's really buttressed his case to be the man who has the answers for Reform UK. Nigel Farage answers that Keir Starmer doesn't seem to have at all.
Chapter 2: How did Andy Burnham's victory impact Labour's leadership dynamics?
I mean, we've heard during the campaign indeed from yourself that part of his message was vote Labour to get rid of the Labour leader. I mean, was that much of a factor in this by-election? Was there much tactical voting?
Well, certainly, there were certainly a little bit of tactical campaigning, I think. I mean, I think it's pretty obvious that the Green Party soft-pedaled their campaign in here. I mean, they do have quite a big Manchester operation that they were able to put together, and that was on force during the Gordon and Dent by-election a couple of weeks ago.
So the Greens didn't really put much effort into it. I think they were keeping their powder dry for the upcoming Greater Manchester mayoral contest that will happen now that Andy Burnham has to be replaced there. There may well have been a little bit of tactical voting. Wherever you have Reform UK now, you also have quite a strong anti-reform UK vote.
So there may well be some voters who would have switched to Andy Burnham to make sure the reform didn't go in. And of course the Conservatives, the Tories, were nowhere to make a field because they put all of their resources into another by-election that took place up in Aberdeen South, which the Tories won. They beat the SNP in that by-election.
So there was a little bit of tactics going on all over the place.
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Chapter 3: What role did tactical voting play in the by-election?
But whatever about the tactics, Burnham is now the one who seems to have the strategy. And that strategy, I think, is probably going to inevitably lead to Downing Street. He'll be knocking on the door of Keir Starmer, I think, pretty quickly.
Yeah, I was listening to his acceptance speech and he didn't quite come out and say it, but it was pretty clear the direction of travel, wasn't it?
It was, yeah. I mean, he came out and he said that, you know, he effectively felt that this was the last chance for Labour, the final chance for change, I think was the wording that he used. He made it quite clear that he wanted his politics to change the country. And he was speaking like this actually quite openly from about a week ago or more.
I mean, I was at a rugby club in Wigan last Saturday where he spoke, and he spoke about, you know, in code about the prime ministerial job. He spoke about wanting to make Makerfield... the most powerful constituency in the country, which I think was code for putting in the hands of the most powerful politician in the country. So he hasn't really been mincing his words now.
And now he can come out and be quite open about it. And in fact, within minutes of the result being announced, just after 3 a.m. this morning, Burnham's biggest allies were on the TV cameras, basically saying that Starmer needs to facilitate an orderly transition of power.
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Chapter 4: What strategies is Andy Burnham using to position himself for leadership?
So it's out in the open now. The race is on to replace Starmer.
Yeah, they would obviously hope that Starmer would see the writing on the walls and go quietly. He has given absolutely zero indication thus far that that is what he intends to do.
No, no. Right up until now, he said, you know, I mean, he's been quite stubborn about it. He has basically said that, look, you know, I'm in position. I have a mandate. I have a five year mandate. you know, I don't want the leadership contest, but if there's one, I'm going to fight it. It will be interesting to see how long he keeps that up for and who talks of this weekend.
I mean, I know, or we know that Andy Burnham's strategy is to basically go to Keir Starmer with the list of Labour MPs who are willing to back him in a leadership contest and say, look, We can do this the easy way or we can do this the hard way.
And he's hoping that Keir Starmer will decide to do it the easier way to keep some sort of a legacy intact to prevent a bloody and tough battle over the summer and to go at a time, an agreed time between them. I think one date to keep an eye on is the EU-UK summit that is in place for July the 22nd.
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Chapter 5: How are Labour MPs reacting to Andy Burnham's success?
I think now there's quite a good chance that Keir Starmer might not be the person to lead the UK into that summit.
Wow. Now, even if Keir Starmer does stand aside and decide not to contest the leadership election, I mean, we are expecting Wes Streeting to throw his hat in the ring, are we, the former health secretary? Or would he be on a hiding to nothing?
I think at this stage, when you look at the scale of Andy Burnham's victory, you look at the margin that he won by, and I think everybody loves a winner, right? And I think the Labour parliamentary party if they smell a winner, will row in behind it.
I think it's quite possible that Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham could do some sort of a deal to avoid a contest, even if Starmer steps aside, there might be a job in it for Wes Streeting, or there might just be the realisation that anybody, anybody who goes up against Andy Burnham is likely to get hammered, because the vote in a Labour leadership election is decided by Labour members.
And Burnham, even before this victory, Burnham was far and away the most popular Labour politician in the country, and his position now looks to be unassailable.
You can see why Labour MPs are keen on him because they think he will save their seats. But the level of expectation about what Andy Burnham can achieve in number 10 Downing Street should he get there is sky high. And as Keir Starmer can demonstrate, if you have very high expectations, very difficult to meet them.
And it's even more difficult to meet him when you step into Downing Street. No matter what your popularity is, in any politician, it doesn't seem to last long upon contact with Downing Street.
So, yeah, you know, a lot of... Particularly up in the north and midlands of England, a lot of these seats that Labour won back in the Red Wall from the Tories that were lost in 2019, they see Andy Burnham as their great big hope to rescue them in the next general election.
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Chapter 6: What challenges does Andy Burnham face as a potential leader?
I mean, look... Andy Burnham still faces a number of problems, you know, even if he leaves Labour into an election. Number one is that he can't replicate himself. I mean, there was a huge amount of his own star power and celebrity status that got him over the line here. You know, there is only one Andy Burnham to go round.
And also, as well, there are some questions here, I think, for Nigel Farage and for Reform UK, because this is the second quite heavy defeat they've taken in a row in an English by-election. And so it's clear that Reform UK are well off their peak. It may be that Nigel Farage is off his peak.
And so I think there'll be a little bit of soul searching for Reform UK as well and just to see where they go from here. But for now, this is Andy Burnham's day.
Yeah. And just, I mean, the intervention of the Restore Party, which is further to the right of Reform UK, it didn't make the difference in the end because Andy Burnham won more than half the votes. But it did take a chunk of Nigel Farage's votes and that certainly would be worrying for them, wouldn't it?
It is. They took 7% of the vote, 7 percentage points.
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Chapter 7: What implications does this election have for the future of British politics?
And that's from an absolute standing start. And that's from a party that was really only constructed as an entity a mere matter of months ago. I mean, I spoke to Rupert Lowe last weekend. I spoke to him on the phone and I asked him what his intentions were for the next general election. He said that he was going to run candidates in every single constituency in the country.
So that's another headache for Farage. And it's another possible benefit for Labour down the line.
split in the right wing vote but I suppose in another sense it's also worrying for British politics and British society that a party with very extreme views which reform Britain does have when you sit down and you read some of its policies such as re-migration which is effectively mass deportations of foreigners I mean for a party like that to pick up 7% of the vote in a by-election is something that I think you never would have seen that in British politics a couple of years ago or a couple of months ago even
Okay, Mark Paul, London correspondent with the Irish Times. Thank you so much for that analysis.