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Chapter 1: Why is Makerfield significant in the current political landscape?
Little more than a month ago, most people in Britain had never heard of Makerfield, let alone know where it was on a map. But that all changed on the 14th of May when the MP for Makerfield announced he was stepping down and it became the focus of huge political and media attention. Josh Simmons had only been the area's Labour MP since the landslide general election of 2024.
He stood aside to give Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham a route back into Parliament in order to let Burnham have a tilt at his party's leadership to seize the keys of 10 Downing Street from a Prime Minister whose popularity has plummeted. So what's going to happen today? Lucy Fisher is Whitehall editor at the Financial Times. She joins me now. Morning, Lucy.
Good morning.
Just on the mechanics of it, the count will begin shortly after polls close around 10pm. When can we expect a result?
It's as clear as mud at the moment. Briefings have suggested it could be as early as 2am or as late as 5am. But as ever, particularly if it is a tight contest, recounts could delay things. So we'll have to wait and see. Certainly by the time of people having their breakfast tomorrow, the results should be very clear.
Now, this was always going to be a challenge for Burnham, given that Nigel Farage's Reform UK won all of the council seats that are in this constituency in the recent local elections. Polls have suggested he is leading over reforms candidate Robert Kenyon. It's not a done deal, though, is it?
It's not a done deal. I myself spent two days in the seat last week and found many reform voters on the ground. I also met many Restore voters. And of course, not to say, you know, my, you know, 48 hours there was scientific. But there is this expectation potentially that Restore could split the right wing bloc. and therefore allow Burnham to come through the middle.
As you say, you know, Reform won all the council seats there just last month. So it will be a big gamble paying off for Burnham if he wins to show that, you know, his personal brand and popularity can massively boost the Labour Party.
And we expect, you know, if he can win locally, he will then use that argument to say, I can beat Reform in a constituency and make me leader and I'll do the same with the country.
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Chapter 2: What are the implications of Andy Burnham's candidacy in Makerfield?
They clearly think that Rupert Lowe's party is better at landing its message online and they need to up their game given that's where so many people are getting their information from.
Now, Andy Burnham is in the slightly odd situation where he's running as a Labour candidate, obviously, but it's pretty clear that a vote for him is a vote against Keir Starmer, his own party leader and prime minister. It is odd, but it shows how unpopular Starmer is.
Well, it does. And, you know, in many ways, it's extraordinary that things have unravelled for Starmer quite so quickly. It's less than two years since he won that famous majority in the House of Commons. And now his own parliamentary party, you know, many of them have gone over the parapet, about a quarter of them calling for him to go or at least to set out a timetable for his transition.
And, you know, we're all braced to see if there could be more resignations, even from the cabinet over the weekend or in in the coming weeks in order to try and force Starmer out. Because that's a key aim of many of Burnham's allies. They don't want there to be a bloody contest that could risk tearing the party apart.
They are hoping for a smooth transition, a coronation, and therefore are hoping to force Starmer, who at the moment is insisting he is defiant, that he would fight onto the back foot.
Yeah, he doesn't look like he's going anywhere and he's certainly saying he's not going anywhere. He was interviewed yesterday. He was even suggesting there might be a cabinet job for Andy Burnham if he wins the by-election. I think there's only one cabinet job Andy Burnham wants.
Well, I think that's right and therefore unsurprising in a sense to see the briefing coming from Team Burnham that he wouldn't accept such an offer. He's made clear he's there for one reason and one reason alone, which is to try and seize the keys to Downing Street. So we are expecting there to be movement within coming days. Burnham's allies say not to expect anything within the first 72 hours.
He will just want to take a beat after the results to finalise his strategy. And there are some people around him who are still sort of suggesting it would be beneficial to leave a longer break before entering Downing Street.
You know, he's had to at the moment, you know, fight a local campaign, sort of fight a campaign within the party, as well as sort of start to think about his first 100-day sprint in government if he does take the premiership.
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