Chapter 1: What triggered the leadership challenges for Keir Starmer?
British politics has been thrown into turmoil after a devastating weekend for Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Labour's poor local election results have triggered open panic within the party, with MPs openly discussing leadership challenges and potential successors this morning. Starmer is to deliver a major speech aimed at resetting his premiership again.
Joining me now is Patrick McGuire, Chief Political Commentator with The Times in London. Patrick, good morning to you. Good morning. You were writing yesterday describing Keir Starmer as hapless, delusional and losing his dignity. Is that really how people are seeing the prime minister?
Well, look, it's certainly how his cabinet and how Labour MPs are seeing him. And I'm afraid the consensus in the Labour Party is that it's just going to make it worse. I mean, let me just read you a text I've got in the past two minutes from a senior adviser to a British cabinet minister.
They wrote, I've always wondered how people felt gathered in a muddy town square waiting for the procession to begin for a public execution of someone they knew. And those are the stakes for Keir Starmer this morning. And I'm afraid what people have seen of the speech that was briefed to British newspapers on Fleet Street overnight has not encouraged them to think he gets it.
OK, he's due to deliver the speech at 10 o'clock, just under 20 minutes away. What do we know about what he's likely to say? Obviously, bits of it have been briefed.
look what he's going to say is uh in his words incremental change will no longer cut it he'll also say that britain should be yeah indeed and that britain should be back at the heart of europe but the problem is when you say britain should be back at the heart of europe that invites labor mps lots of humor in favor of closer ties the year not rejoining at some point in the future and the progressive voters that have abandoned the labor party for the greens and others
in recent days, encourages them to think Keir Starmer is going to do something big and bold. But the message from number 10, and those cabinet ministers still prepared to go on television to defend him, is nothing's going to change about the UK government's red lines, which are very restricted. They rule out single market and customs union membership.
which all invite the question, well, what's the point? What are you saying? Keir Starmer has given a million speeches in which he's essentially offered an extended narration on how little he can do as Prime Minister, sort of stroppily complaining about how difficult it all is.
And for that to be the offer, at the point where he's been resoundingly rejected by the public again, is just going to fill people with despair.
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Chapter 2: How do Labour MPs perceive Keir Starmer's leadership?
I think it's at least 15 for the duration of his leadership. That's also the problem. Every time Keir Starmer reinvents himself, another dozen or so Labour MPs question whether he is the man for the job. He has occupied basically every conceivable position within the history and tradition of the Labour Party since becoming leader in 2020.
And the big question mark that voters have is, well, what is Guy for? What does he believe? Does he believe in anything? And voters have sniffed that out. And I'd say the last of the loyalists in his cabinet and on the back benches
are looking at the electoral results, looking at the Prime Minister and thinking, well, look, it wasn't great when the Tories cycled three leaders, but we have no other option.
Yeah, you had a nice phrase talking about he's in the Willy Wonka phase of his leadership. What does that mean?
Yeah, well, that was put to me by one of the many former advisers to Keir Starmer in the early hours of Saturday after he'd just given a pretty remarkable interview to the Observer newspaper in which he said he intended to serve 10 years as prime minister. And about one in the morning, I got a text from an adviser He was glad to be at a number 10 and said he's in the Willy Wonka phase.
His premiership, I said, what do you mean? He said he lives in a world of pure imagination. And that's what people felt like when they read that. You know, what planet is this guy on if he thinks he's doing another eight years as prime minister?
Well, I suppose it's good to be optimistic. In terms of the local elections, I mean, everybody had expected Labour to do really, really badly, Patrick. And by some counts, the party didn't do quite as badly as some had. forecast. So is it really the local elections that are doing this or is it just the accumulation of disappointments?
Look, it's the accumulation and the local elections and the straw that broke the camel's back. I mean, to say the local elections weren't quite as bad as we thought is like saying, well, I only lost three limbs in that accident rather than all four.
I mean, as one cabinet minister put it to me, the Labour Party lost everywhere to everyone, including in lots of parts of London, the Conservative Party. I mean, it was unimaginably bad. And several Labour MPs have compared it to a bereavement to me.
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Chapter 3: What are the expectations for Keir Starmer's upcoming speech?
But Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is obviously not an MP. He needs to find a seat. That'll take time. Lots of MPs are calling for... for Keir Starmer's head, are calling for an orderly transition, which is code for give Andy a couple of months to find a seat and give him a coronation.
But West Streeting, who is less popular with Andy Burnham among the membership, has in his hands today the opportunity to go over the top and say, enough of this. I am challenging Keir Starmer for leadership. That is his only path, his cabinet colleagues think, to taking over. And all eyes are on him.
He has bottled the opportunities to do that a couple of times before, once last year, once in February. And if he's going to do it, he's going to have to do it now. And there are lots of very wound-up people around West Street who are telling him, this is your final chance. And if the speech goes down badly... which, by the way, I expect, I'm 99% sure it will go down very badly.
There'll be a huge clamour among ministers, several of whom on the junior ranks are thinking of resigning in protest, for someone to lead them. And I think the only person likely to lead them is West Street England. Let's see.
OK, there is a lot of support for Andy Burnham, who, as you say, is not at present an MP. So would his supporters be likely to support Keir Starmer if a leadership challenge was initiated by West Street in the hope that it'll buy a bit of time for their man to get back to Westminster? Thank you.
Support is probably an overstatement. I think it's sort of a more accurate phrase might be keep him under house arrest for a period. Just, you know, he basically exists as sort of like a human convenience for these people now. It's sort of, you know, you can stay as prime minister until such a time as Andy Burnham can come. So it's not a case of supporting Keir Starmer.
It's more saying this guy is finished, but he can't go yet. You know, name us a timetable and make sure that timetable gives Andy Burnham enough time to get a seat. So basically nobody is saying Keir Starmer is the man to lead Labour into the next election, apart from Keir Starmer.
Okay. I mean, the Willy Wonka thing will stick with me. Where did it all go wrong for Keir Starmer?
Well, where do we begin with such a question with so many answers? Look, I think there is now a consensus in the cabinet, and this was obvious from the start, that for a prime minister who was not particularly popular to start with, who was elected because of mass revulsion towards the Tories, to open his account with the British public by doing two things.
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