Chapter 1: What significant gains did Reform UK make in the early council elections?
Reform UK has made significant gains at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives in early council election results in England overnight. The polls across Scotland, Wales and 136 English councils are the biggest set of elections since the 2024 general election and they're being seen as a key test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Mr Starmer has been speaking this morning.
He said the results were very tough for Labour and said he took full responsibility. The full picture will emerge later as most councils are not counting overnight and are due to results later today. along with results for the Senate in Wales and the Scottish Parliament.
I'm joined now by Gerry Scott, Assistant Political Editor with The London Times, and by Daily Mirror Associate Editor Kevin Maguire. Good morning.
Chapter 2: How are the council elections a test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer?
Welcome to you both. Gerry, I might start with you. As I say, it's an incomplete picture so far, but what are we seeing? What are the trends?
Yeah, look, there's still a lot to go, but we're definitely seeing pretty major losses from Labour, especially in what's been their traditional heartlands, to reform on the right, Greens picking up some seats and some green shoots for the Tories as well. But what we should say is that, you know, there is kind of no good way to spin this for
the traditional parties, Labour and the Tories, are still going to be massively down on the seats that they were defending. And, you know, we've still got those results, as you say, across many councils and in Scotland and Wales to come.
And I think the Red Walls councils have been counting overnight, whereas some of the traditional Tory areas aren't counting until today. I think that was the message Nigel Farage was trying to get across earlier anyway, that he was expecting further gains at the expense of the Tories rather than Labour later on today.
Yeah, I think that's right. But, you know, there is a long kind of time to go yet. And, you know, we used to be a country. We used to do all these election counts overnight. And it's much better, in my opinion. But what this does mean, this drawn out process, is that there's this kind of drip, drip, drip of results.
One MP described it to me as being a bit like Chinese water torture, where, you know, this is drawn out over a long period of time. And that plays into the kind of emotional reaction that we will see throughout the day.
OK, you mentioned a few green shoots for the Conservatives. They are down, but they're not down as much as Labour, obviously. So given the surge of support for reform, it could have been worse for Cammy Badnock and her party.
I think so. And look, I mean, when I say green shoots, this is coming from a very low base. So this is not me saying that the Conservatives are doing excellently, but they are doing better in some areas than they were expecting. So, you know, taking control of Westminster Council, doing very well in Wandsworth, you know, Bexley and the outskirts of London as well, being able to perform there.
So there have been some successes for them. They weren't necessarily expecting, but they have mostly been concentrated in London so far. So let's see how the rest of the day goes.
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Chapter 3: What trends are emerging from the early election results?
So it's a very, very difficult election to analyse.
OK, and these are first past the post-elections in the councils.
That's right. And, you know, I think, you know, that makes it even harder to kind of predict. And it also means that what we're going to see is a lot of kind of no overall control councils where, you know, you might have a largest party, but not necessarily taking that full control.
So we're moving into an era of talking about pacts, coalitions and how that is going to work is going to be fascinating.
Yeah, absolutely. Stay with us if you can, Kerry. Gerry, I want to bring in Kevin Maguire as well, Associate Editor at the Daily Mirror. Morning, Kevin. Good morning. As Gerry says, no easy way to spin this for Labour, is there?
No. The Prime Minister is saying he's not going to walk away and plunge the country into chaos. The problem he has is some of his cabinet ministers privately believe if he stays, he plunges his party and the country into chaos. But he's shown his stickability, saying his resolve for change will be greater. But there's no doubt his own popularity is so low it's been a drag on Labour members.
If Labour do try to put a positive spin on it, it's rather like the Black Knight in Monty Python's Holy Grail with no arms, no legs, saying it's to the scratch. But Michael Thrasher, one of the big pollsters, has downgraded Labour losses from 1,800 to 1,200. which would be roughly half the seats it's fighting. But that's still a terrible result for Labour.
It just might not be turbo terrible, but it is terrible.
Well, yeah, but I suppose everybody had been expecting turbo terrible, so just plain old terrible might not be so bad.
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