Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Arthur Hayes Predicts Massive Market Crash and Bitcoin Surge by 2030
09 Jan 2026
Chapter 1: What predictions does Arthur Hayes make about the economy by 2030?
Welcome back to part two of this incredible conversation. Without further ado, here we go. If we know that the government is going to print, if we know that Trump is doing everything he can to drive interest rates lower, and we know that both of those things are inflationary, they will drive up asset prices. They will make houses more expensive. They'll make rent more expensive on and on and on.
What does the world look like over the next three years as that easy money continues to flood the system?
I mean, S&P 10,000, NASDAQ 100,000, Bitcoin 1 million, gold 15,000, right? Pick your asset.
Chapter 2: How does government monetary policy influence asset prices?
They're all going up. Maybe some go up more than the others, but that is the state of play. And so then the question is, how do you take whatever savings that you have and buy one of those things? Whatever it is you feel comfortable buying, because those are the things that have to go up as a release valve for let's run the economy hot. Let's... allow wage inflation.
Let's reduce the debt to GDP on the government's balance sheet.
Okay, so you've talked about how Trump would effectively take over the Fed. How does he do that? Because right now, obviously, he's not able to get the things done that he wants to get done. So how would he pull that coup off? And In a magical world where you have a wand and you can either help him or stop him, would you help him get control of the Fed?
Is what he wants what you want to see happen?
Chapter 3: What is the impact of inflationary policies on housing and rental prices?
Or would you stop him?
So to answer the last question first, I'm a financial asset holder, so I want what he wants. I want cheap money. I don't want it to be plentiful. I own the things that are going to go up because this works. And that's just the truth of it. If you own a house, you want what Trump wants to have happen. He's going to pump your house price too. Now, the situation is –
How does he gain control of the Fed? So first of all, every single U.S. president since the Fed has been created always gets the monetary policy that they want. This is not a new phenomenon where the president and the chairman of the Fed are butting heads. This is not new. And always the Fed chairman, whoever that is, caves, or the Fed as a political body.
There's a great essay written by Arthur Burns in 1979, The Anguish of Central Banking, where he essentially says that because the politicians want to provide this free money to do stuff for the people, because the people have elected them to do this, we as a Fed, whether we like it or not, are there to facilitate that.
And the thing that will let go is the value of the currency and sort of responsibility of what is the value of the dollar. And we will always do that. It's essentially the message that he said. This is the 1979. So people need to do a real little bit of history in terms of...
understanding that Trump, Biden, Clinton, Obama, Bush, Reagan, they all got the monetary policy that they wanted in the end. And so Trump will get it. I wrote an essay called 4-7, and I talked about the bureaucratic machinations on how Fed votes and how you get control of this board versus that board. Maybe he does something like that.
Maybe everyone in the Fed is convicted of mortgage fraud and you replace it all. I don't know. It doesn't really matter. There's never been a president who's never gotten the monetary policy that they desire. Trump will get his monetary policy. How long it takes? I think sometime in the second half of 2026, he'll get the monetary policy that he wants, however he does it.
All right, you painted a picture, or maybe I painted it and you agreed, of what's gonna happen when Trump gets the economy that he wants or the Fed to do what he wants, and that's asset prices go up. But right now asset prices are down. So what's going on with Bitcoin, Ethereum, yeah, and other assets that we see struggling right now? What's the underlying cause?
The underlying cause is the Fed is not printing as much money as we thought they would print as fast. And the technical thing is the government shutdown – sorry, the debt ceiling fight ended on July 4th, and the U.S. Treasury essentially had to pull a trillion dollars out of the economy to rebuild its checking account. And that's essentially at a very –
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Chapter 4: How might Trump gain control of the Federal Reserve?
Very minimal. We'll keep going back up as credit expands. The quantitative tightening ends at the Fed. Trump gains control of the Fed sometime in 2026. And money is printed in some way, shape, or form. There's also the housing market. A key policy of the Trump administration is to pump housing. It's a key policy of every single administration. I don't care if it's Republican or Democrat.
And so, again, I think people need to take out this partisan nature of like, oh, Trump's a Republican. He's bad because I'm a Democrat and I oppose these things that he's going to do. Well, put in Kamala Harris as a Democrat. She would do the same stuff. And so I think once you remove all that, then you're saying, okay, well, why am I trying to fight this?
I'm not going to fundamentally get politically active and change this system that puts this structure on how I am as a financial person in this world. Then I better just get with the program. And it's buy stocks, buy crypto, buy gold, don't use leverage, and just wait, and it'll go up.
What does it tell us about human nature or the markets in general that people just cannot bear to wait? They always panic. Like they didn't expect that it was gonna go down. This whole notion of this time is different is so wild to me. So yeah, what do you take away every time people start freaking out when the price dips?
We're all human at the end of the day. And this is human nature. The market is not there to make you money if you overtrade. And this has always been the case. It's nothing changed. We're still humans. We're still these lizard-brained mammals that live in this new computer-aged world.
It's only been 150 years since we really have sort of emerged from pretty much like subsistence, basic subsistence. So I think that human nature is human nature. And so the average human is impatient, wants the future today, is willing to gamble to get it. And unfortunately, the politicians play on that.
Yeah, that is for sure. So as you look out into the future, you know that humans are going to react that way. do you see anything that can change the divergent economies?
Because this is the thing that probably I worry the most about is given that human nature, given how busy people are, given that some people don't have the intellectual capability to understand it, given that many have the capability but just aren't going to put the time into understanding it, they are going to be moved by policy decisions full stop.
They are not going to go, oh, well, given that there's money printing, I know assets are going to go up, so let me go get in assets. Do you worry about that? Do you not think about that at all? How do you factor that into your calculus?
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Chapter 5: What are the current challenges facing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?
So it's like statistically the odds are not in our favor. We're already doing weird things in Venezuela, doing currency swaps with Argentina.
from where i'm sitting as a way to let china know hey uh south america is our hemisphere it is not yours you will stay out of it uh be a real shame if something happened to one of your ships in the caribbean so obviously china is now doing all kinds of off the coast of japan to let people know where they're at with taiwan japan clap back china clap back
you know, to Japan saying, all right, well, if you guys want to fucking test us, if you want to start talking that it's existential and that you're going to have to do something, if you're feeling froggy, leap. So it's like, I feel all that instability. Then factor on top of that, you've got the US right now choosing between essentially brands of socialism.
So we both agree that there's going to be what I will characterize as additional stress put on the system. So if I'm China and I'm looking at America, I'm like, oh good, you fuckwits are gonna like tear yourselves apart, fantastic. I'm gonna keep going. I'm gonna build a gold corridor in South America. I'm gonna peg the Yuan to gold.
I'm gonna make sure that the US loses the reserve currency status. I'm gonna weaken you guys. Yeah, I don't plan to invade you. But I am going to, by the way, take over Taiwan by 2027. You're going to do fucking nothing about it. And so now you get in a situation where your biggest rival is picking off allies. Your biggest rival controls essentially your entire warfare pipeline. So.
They're going to be able to do effectively what they want because they can choke you off from rare earth minerals and drone parts and all kinds of stuff. And so the U.S. is going to be just put in a weaker position like you. I don't imagine this isn't you wake up one day and it's catastrophic. It's the U.S. is just put in a weaker and weaker state.
is in a worse-off position in terms of who they can influence globally, which means things will get worse economically. You'll be in an economic battle with China for who gets to trade where with who with what. And given that we're already printing money ad infinitum, that just everything gets weaker and worse.
And so that we are already doing political assassinations, we're already at each other's throat, you get the Venezuelification or the Argentinification of the US over the next 10 to 15 years. That's what I worry about.
I mean, there's a lot there to unpack, but I think the US would transition from a unipolar hegemon to a very powerful country. And I guess the question is, how does the American psyche handle that? Could be bad. Could be okay. People get like, hey, fuck it, whatever. China is the number two and number one. We're number one and number two. And we deal with it, right? And as you mentioned, right?
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Chapter 6: What role will AI play in the future economy and labor market?
Yes, there'll be some banks for the boomers who still want to walk down this two-trip ranch like my mother. There'll be that. Cool. Whatever. But the fun stuff's happening over here. And the money keeps getting printed. And crypto keeps going up.
And we sort of crescendo in sort of the 27, 2027, 2008 timeframe where you're going to have at least a pushback on, hey, there's an affordability crisis. And
maybe there will be some negative rhetoric to money printing towards austerity and they might gain some support which will spook investors and like oh shit is xyz countries united states is china is europe is japan are they really serious about stopping the money printing and allowing the credit to contract and putting out of business all these over levered you know businesses and financial intermediaries maybe i should take some chips off the table right maybe you know
NVIDIA at 20 trillion market cap with all this accounting nonsense that they're doing with these deals. Maybe I'm done with that. I'm going to exit stage left. And that's when I think we get like a massive collapse in all these over levered markets. And by that time, maybe the AI sort of effectiveness and usefulness will start to catch up with the hype.
If you think about 2001, when all these massive fiber optics companies like Cisco and all of them crashed, that they built out this amazing substrate that created social media. In the next decade, it'll be much faster with AI. So there'll be a massive crash and all these hyperscalers and, you know. model builders like OpenAI and Anthropic.
And then in the wake of it, we'll get whatever useful application that entrepreneurs create to essentially make labor super cheap and make knowledge super cheap. And where are we going to be able to do with that as a human society?
The pressure that you see that's going to make that happen in 27, 28 is inflation due to money printing, giving us that K-shaped tale of two economies. People get pissed off enough that they begin speaking up The speak up then makes the politicians go, huh, maybe we need to start signaling that we're going to tighten. And just the hint of that signal is potentially going to spook the market.
And that causes the drop.
Yeah, I mean, think about 2021, right? At least in the United States, you had, what, 10% inflation or whatever it was. Again, that's not Zimbabwe or Argentina or Weimar Republic. It's all officially just high inflation. And just the act of the Federal Reserve in December saying, hey, we're going to start a tightening program in three months' time was the thing that popped all the bubbles.
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Chapter 7: How does human psychology affect market behavior during downturns?
or in China. And guess what? Railroad business is a shitty fucking business to be in as a long-term investor. And sooner or later, investors will realize, oh shit, I'm investing in the new age railroad. I don't want to be the new age railroad. Google's not the new age railroad. They are now, but Google wasn't the new age railroad in 2001.
They were the thing that used the cheap fiber optic connectivity to build their service. Same with Facebook. Same with Amazon, right? They did well after the capex boom. So investors will realize that situation like, oh, shit, I'm investing in new age railroads. I don't want to be in that. Let me get out of that.
So this is interesting. I have not heard this before. So basically, there are business types that are so capital expensive, but people get hyped about them. So they invest in them, but they're not going to make their money back ever, maybe or certainly not for a long time. And so bad risk adjusted return. They finally realized that they get out.
And then we realize, oh, like we had a whole lot of capital tied up in something. They got spooked. They pulled out, presumably at a loss. And now we're basically sucking liquidity out of the system. Is that how that would play out?
Yeah, I mean, yeah, if AI is a thing that powers the American and Chinese forward economy, and literally all we're doing is building out essentially a railroad for other awesome entrepreneurs to build something on top of, well, again, the railroads are not great businesses long term. They're... a natural monopoly, if you want to call it that.
But what I'm trying to figure out is, OK, fair enough, but England would go into a country, the first thing they would do is build the railroads so they could extract all of the resources, and England becomes a gigantic empire on the back of railroads. So I get why it might not be a good investment for a small number of people that put a ton of money in. But overall, it's so transformative
I'm trying to figure out why you think this brings like a full blown crash, like 1903, 1907, whatever the year was.
I think you mentioned it because the return on capital is not there. When you invest alongside the government, at first it feels great. Oh, great. I've got the government behind me. They're just going to like pump my bags, right?
People feel great that the United States government is now getting into industrial policy, that they're pumping nuclear, they're pumping AI, they're pumping semiconductors. Well, guess what? Go back and become a Chinese investor. And look at the average return over the last 20 years. Who did really, really well?
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Chapter 8: What investment strategies should be considered in a volatile market?
Everybody's funding themselves. Well, this euro thing. Christine Lagarde on the ECB says we can't print enough money to do things domestically. Fuck you, Christine Lagarde. I'm going to print money and focus on France first. And that breaks the euro.
As soon as France says I'm going to change making laws, restrict capital from movement across Europe, or not do what the ECB tells me to do, whether that's greater than 3% of GDP budget deficits, whatever. then the Euro in all effect is over. And capital is not flowing freely around the Eurozone. And that's what ends the Euro. And so France is slowly walking towards that situation.
And you can take a look at the liabilities of the French banking system within the EU system called the Target 2 imbalance. It's deteriorated rapidly since 2021. And eventually, whatever that is, this will come to a head. And the ECB will be faced with a choice to print money to save the Euro or Uh, and they'll print the money.
And again, it doesn't really matter if assets go up, money gets printed, euros are there or it's not there, but capital controls are introduced. So if you're in France, if you're in Europe, get out while they're getting out as good, get your money out of Europe, put it somewhere else.
All right, man, there's a lot of money printing going on, a lot of uncertainty in the world. Through it all, you have stayed very sanguine. Tell people, what is the one thing that you have as a core belief that most people do not that allows you to be very even keel through what is certainly in our lifetimes, completely unprecedented instability?
I read books, and when you read books, you find out that everything that we're experiencing today, yes, of course, there's an AI, money printing, debt jubilee, social discontent, empires on the rise, empires on the fall. We've done this all before. We've done it. In Rome, we've done it in Weimar Republic. We've done it in World War II. We've done it in, you know, pick your ancient civilization.
They've all had the same problems. They've all had the same menu of solutions. And every time the politicians chose to put the money and every time math and the compound rate of interest in time worked against them. And every time if you own gold or certain other assets, you did well. It's something that you could keep them from being confiscated from the state. So as long as you do that,
and you don't use leverage, you'll be okay. Because again, time, mass, and human nature are on your side.
Awesome. Brother, I am grateful for every chance that we get to spend time together. Thank you so much for taking the time. Where can people connect with you online?
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