Arthur Hayes Predicts Massive Market Crash and Bitcoin Surge by 2030
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What predictions does Arthur Hayes make about the economy by 2030?
Welcome back to part two of this incredible conversation. Without further ado, here we go. If we know that the government is going to print, if we know that Trump is doing everything he can to drive interest rates lower, and we know that both of those things are inflationary, they will drive up asset prices. They will make houses more expensive. They'll make rent more expensive on and on and on. What does the world look like over the next three years as that easy money continues to flood the system?
I mean, S&P 10,000, NASDAQ 100,000, Bitcoin 1 million, gold 15,000, right? Pick your asset.
How does government monetary policy influence asset prices?
They're all going up. Maybe some go up more than the others, but that is the state of play. And so then the question is, how do you take whatever savings that you have and buy one of those things? Whatever it is you feel comfortable buying, because those are the things that have to go up as a release valve for let's run the economy hot. Let's... allow wage inflation. Let's reduce the debt to GDP on the government's balance sheet.
Okay, so you've talked about how Trump would effectively take over the Fed. How does he do that? Because right now, obviously, he's not able to get the things done that he wants to get done. So how would he pull that coup off? And In a magical world where you have a wand and you can either help him or stop him, would you help him get control of the Fed? Is what he wants what you want to see happen?
What is the impact of inflationary policies on housing and rental prices?
Or would you stop him?
So to answer the last question first, I'm a financial asset holder, so I want what he wants. I want cheap money. I don't want it to be plentiful. I own the things that are going to go up because this works. And that's just the truth of it. If you own a house, you want what Trump wants to have happen. He's going to pump your house price too. Now, the situation is – How does he gain control of the Fed? So first of all, every single U.S. president since the Fed has been created always gets the monetary policy that they want. This is not a new phenomenon where the president and the chairman of the Fed are butting heads. This is not new. And always the Fed chairman, whoever that is, caves, or the Fed as a political body.
There's a great essay written by Arthur Burns in 1979, The Anguish of Central Banking, where he essentially says that because the politicians want to provide this free money to do stuff for the people, because the people have elected them to do this, we as a Fed, whether we like it or not, are there to facilitate that. And the thing that will let go is the value of the currency and sort of responsibility of what is the value of the dollar. And we will always do that. It's essentially the message that he said. This is the 1979. So people need to do a real little bit of history in terms of... understanding that Trump, Biden, Clinton, Obama, Bush, Reagan, they all got the monetary policy that they wanted in the end.
And so Trump will get it. I wrote an essay called 4-7, and I talked about the bureaucratic machinations on how Fed votes and how you get control of this board versus that board. Maybe he does something like that. Maybe everyone in the Fed is convicted of mortgage fraud and you replace it all. I don't know. It doesn't really matter. There's never been a president who's never gotten the monetary policy that they desire. Trump will get his monetary policy. How long it takes? I think sometime in the second half of 2026, he'll get the monetary policy that he wants, however he does it.
All right, you painted a picture, or maybe I painted it and you agreed, of what's gonna happen when Trump gets the economy that he wants or the Fed to do what he wants, and that's asset prices go up. But right now asset prices are down. So what's going on with Bitcoin, Ethereum, yeah, and other assets that we see struggling right now? What's the underlying cause?
The underlying cause is the Fed is not printing as much money as we thought they would print as fast. And the technical thing is the government shutdown – sorry, the debt ceiling fight ended on July 4th, and the U.S.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What predictions does Arthur Hayes make about the economy by 2030?
0:01–0:41
2
How does government monetary policy influence asset prices?
0:41–1:39
3
What is the impact of inflationary policies on housing and rental prices?
1:39–5:20
4
How might Trump gain control of the Federal Reserve?
5:20–18:01
5
What are the current challenges facing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?
18:01–28:17
6
What role will AI play in the future economy and labor market?
28:17–32:25
7
How does human psychology affect market behavior during downturns?
32:25–1:03:44
8
What investment strategies should be considered in a volatile market?
1:03:44–1:08:10
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