The Global World Order Is Collapsing- And It's Much Bigger Than Trump! | Impact Theory W/ Tom Bilyeu & Peter Zeihan
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How did Trump influence the current global order?
Most people think what's happening right now in the world is because of Trump, but I've heard you say that we were always going to end up here. I would love to get an explanation on that. Like what is here exactly?
Yeah, well, I mean, first, let's start by saying that the U.S. president, whoever it happens to be, is the most powerful person in history and typically the most powerful person in the world. Trump, no exception to that. To say that he's not having an impact is not what I'm going for. But we had a couple of massive trends that have been playing out for the last several decades that are coming to an abrupt halt right now. anyway, and Trump is manifesting how we evolve from those old systems to whatever comes next. So he is going to be one of, if not the most consequential American presidents in modern history, simply because of the timing for when he is in the big chair. And he will have an imprint upon what it means to be American or what it means to be human on this planet for decades to come.
And those two big trends are trade and demographics. The whole concept of how we have managed the world since World War II was that the United States will take care of global security, make sure that anyone can ship anything anywhere at any time. The U.S. will keep their markets open if you allow us to write your security policies.
What are the significant trends affecting global security?
And that's NATO and that's the Japanese and the Korean and the Taiwanese alliances. That is the physical structure that makes it all possible. But for the Americans, it was always about security, not about trade. And so as a percentage of GDP, if you remove agriculture and energy, we only trade with the rest of the world for 5% or 6% of GDP once you factor out NAFTA. We're just not involved in it. That was the deal. If we had invested our economy into the world, it wouldn't have been a trade. It would have been an empire and no one would have joined. So that's kind of piece one. And we've been moving away from that since 1992 because the Cold War is over.
Trump just happens to be the guy who is officiating the formal break. So really fast, when we were talking about controlling people's security policy, it was just a question of Russia?
At the time, yes. Keep in mind that if you go back to the 80s and the 90s, China was an ally.
that's interesting okay so if our goal was we need to deal with russia we dealt with russia the ussr collapses uh i've heard you talk about um the first bush presidency h.w bush tried to get us to have a conversation about what the new world order look was going to look like um one help me understand so if this is trade is a huge part of the world order if demographics are a huge part of the world order
What role does trade play in the evolving world order?
other than safety? What is the world order? When we say that, what do we mean?
Well, from the American point of view, it means one thing. From everyone else's point of view, it means another. So from the American point of view, it was about containment or neocontainment or whatever version of containment you want to call it. So stop anyone from getting too powerful to challenge us? Exactly. Wherever that happens to be, the Western Hemisphere is very well insulated from the rest of the world, and North America is the best chunk of land on the planet in terms of its capital capacity and for developing an integrated nation-state. And the greater Mississippi, the East Coast, those two chunks, they don't exist anywhere else on the planet. And to have them both in the same political authority gives us massive flexibility.
But that doesn't mean we can impose on the rest of the world. That requires a strategy that involves basing and allies. And so what we did with our post-World War II environment was incentivize all of the allies to participate in our security structures. and use their land and their armies and their navies to impose a security regimen on the entire hemisphere.
How are demographics impacting global economics?
And so the French, the British, the Japanese, the Turks, all of the major powers of the last half century, excuse me, half millennia, became from a certain point of view, proxy powers under American control.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How did Trump influence the current global order?
0:00–1:22
2
What are the significant trends affecting global security?
1:22–2:48
3
What role does trade play in the evolving world order?
2:48–4:01
4
How are demographics impacting global economics?
4:01–5:13
5
What historical events correlate with today's geopolitical landscape?
5:13–6:27
6
How is the U.S. adapting to challenges in international relations?
6:27–7:42
7
What strategies could the U.S. implement to counter China?
7:42–9:15
8
What does the future hold for global economic models?
9:15–51:32
Speakers
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