UBS On-Air: Market Moves

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Threats and freezes'

22 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

UK government borrowing rose in December. Higher interest payments on inflation-linked debt were a significant part of this. Inflation-linked debt is ...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Fit check

21 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

As President Trump’s second term is now underway, Jason performs a “fit check” assessment of the US economy and markets. Tune in for the takeaw...

Across the Pond: Getting back into the fast lane

21 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Amid the woes, where are the opportunities in Europe’s car industry? President-elect Trump has threatened to slap higher tariffs on European carmak...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Scripted versus unscripted'

21 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

South Korea’s trade data for the first 20 days of January showed a decline in exports—there were more holidays this year than last, affecting the ...

Jump Start - Trump's inauguration, earnings season & the BoJ update

20 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Will Trump's policy changes lead to near-term market volatility? Can earnings season stay solid amid anticipated market volatility? Will the Bank ...

Around the Horn: Fixed Income Roundtable with UBS Asset Management

20 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views o...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Competitiveness considerations'

20 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

German December producer price inflation is due. This is not normally a major market concern, but as trade taxes and relative competitiveness become ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trade taxes and the US Treasury'

17 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

US Treasury Secretary-nominee Bessent is a more orthodox cabinet nominee. Yesterday’s confirmation hearings saw generally articulate answers. The re...

Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Ken Shinoda (DoubleLine) & Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)

16 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Our first conversation of the year begins with thoughts around the recent rise in yields, along with where pockets of vulnerability and opportunity ex...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Benign inflation; now, what about growth?'

16 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Yesterday’s US consumer price inflation data was benign. Consumer durable goods prices fell for a majority of the Biden administration. Although con...

How should I be positioned? with Rick Rieder (BlackRock) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)

15 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Rick rejoins Jason to begin a new year as the two discuss and share their views on the US macroeconomic environment, monetary policy and rates, along ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Shell shocked'

15 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

US December consumer price inflation should show modest headline gains. It is worth distinguishing inflation pressures and relative price changes. Egg...

Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - A bumpy ride into 2025

14 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Leslie rejoins the podcast to share CIO’s outlook for fixed income in 2025, including thoughts around the road ahead for monetary policy, what has b...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trade taxes and boiling frogs'

14 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Markets have reacted to media reports suggesting that the next US administration will impose trade taxes on US consumers gradually, month by month. Re...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - The trend is your friend

13 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

What does a combination of good economic data and higher rates mean for the markets? Following a strong December jobs report, and with yields continu...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Buy before prices rise'

13 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

China’s December trade data showed even more strength in exports than had been anticipated. This is being attributed to US companies stockpiling ahe...

Top of the Morning: Dec Jobs Report, FOMC, and the week ahead

10 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We close out the first trading week of 2025 by reflecting on the December employment report, along with the minutes from the December FOMC meeting. P...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Dullness, and bias'

10 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

US employment report Friday brings the regular reminder that average earnings are not wages (changing labor force structures change the average). The ...

Top of the Morning: 2025 Retirement Guide

09 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

With a new year underway, Ainsley and Justin rejoin the conversation to explain what retirees, along with those preparing for retirement, should know ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Ninety one days'

09 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes reflect the rather chaotic swings of view that occur under Fed Chair Powell. After an emergency rate cut without a...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'US rates paths'

08 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due. Investors’ concerns are less about the current state of play of the US economy (reasonable ...

Washington Weekly Podcast: First 100 days, Legislative agenda, President Carter

07 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We kick-off 2025 by previewing President-elect Trump’s first 100 days in office, along with the legislative focuses and priorities of Congress in th...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Guardrails'

07 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The resignation of Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Bar highlights the guardrails in protecting central bank independence. While Barr’s resignation from t...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - MAGA v DOGE

06 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Our first episode of the year kicks off with an assessment of market activity over the past few weeks, and what to expect from markets over the near-t...

Jump Start - Will stocks recover from the December dip?

06 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Will a cooling labor market reassure the Fed? Will stocks recover from the December dip? Can gold push closer to all-time highs? CIO's Christopher...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Taxes or tips?'

06 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

US President-elect Trump has been posting on social media in support of a single budget bill through Congress. A single bill might take longer to pass...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Here we go again'

03 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

US politics intrudes into financial markets, with the US House of Representatives trying to elect a speaker today. US Speaker Johnson has been endorse...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'A year of upsetting everyone'

02 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

2025 is the best of times, and the worst of times; an epoch of belief, an epoch of incredulity. In an increasingly polarized world, people will cling...

CIO Global Livestream: New Year, New Resolutions

23 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Listen to our final livestream of the year, where our Global Chief Investment Officer, Mark Haefele, and colleagues provide an in-depth recap of 2024,...

Top of the Morning: FOMC takeaways and 2025 outlook

20 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On the final episode of Top of the Morning for 2024, Brian Rose drops by to share his thoughts and reflections on this week’s FOMC meeting outcome. ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Solid foundations, political threats'

20 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With the wearisome repetitiveness of a tacky Christmas song, a US government shutdown is again threatened. A budget deal backed by president-elect adv...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The end of the rate cut scramble'

19 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US inflation has fallen this year. A lot of this is due to the fantasy owners’ equivalent rent price, which no one pays. Declining fantasy prices do...

Washington Weekly Podcast: Government funding, Syria, 2025 Congressional priorities

18 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

For the final episode of 2024, Shane shares the latest on government funding negotiations, along with other year-end legislative priorities of Congres...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The end of the rate cut scramble'

18 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US inflation has fallen this year. A lot of this is due to the fantasy owners’ equivalent rent price, which no one pays. Declining fantasy prices do...

How should I be positioned? with Torsten Slok (Apollo) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)

17 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Torsten rejoins Jason in the New York podcast studio to exchange 2024 reflections, and 2025 expectations - spanning market returns, monetary policy, a...

Top of the Morning: Munis in 2025 - Strength amid policy uncertainties

17 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We wrap up our year-ahead series with a look at expectations for the municipal bond market in 2025, including how policy uncertainties and macro facto...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Political noise, again'

17 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

While we wait for the perfection of economists running everything, politicians are creating background noise. To the surprise of absolutely no one, Ge...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Word of the year IV

16 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As we conclude the CIO Strategy Snapshot series for 2024, Jason unveils and explains his choice for 2024 “finance word of the year”. We also spen...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Shuffling demand around'

16 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

China’s November retail sales disappointed. Some of this can be blamed on the timing of the singles shopping festival. The pattern of sales showed c...

CIO House View Monthly Livestream (December)

15 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The decade so far has been a “Roaring ‘20s” by many measures. Now we’re getting set to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, lower interest rates...

Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Kew Yuoh (Lord Abbett) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)

15 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors as we approach 2025, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class...

Top of the Morning: US Information Technology - 2025 outlook & themes

13 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our series of year-ahead conversations continue with a look at performance expectations and themes in focus (including Artificial Intelligence) for th...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Supporting consumers'

13 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The ECB cut rates by 25bps as was expected. The ECB does not want to be running a restrictive monetary policy at the moment, and more rate cuts are ex...

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 22)

12 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On the final episode of Viewpoints for 2024, Burkhard reflects on what has been a busy year, spanning market and macro developments, along with shares...

CIO Fixed Income Roundtable Series: 2024 in review

12 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As 2024 comes to a close, the CIO Fixed Income team reflects on performance across sub-sectors (including Municipals, Investment Grade, and Preferreds...

Top of the Morning: US Healthcare - 2025 outlook & themes

11 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our series of year-ahead conversations continue with a look at performance expectations and themes in focus for the US healthcare sector in 2025. We ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Real talk'

11 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US consumer price inflation data is due for November. These numbers are something of a mess. A quarter of the index is a fantasy price no one pays. In...

Top of the Morning: CEO Macro Briefing - 12 questions ahead of 2025

10 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In this special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book series, Paul Hsiao outlines some of the top questions on the minds of business owner clients as...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Taxing US consumers, cutting China’s taxes'

10 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

China’s consumers have been unenthusiastic, and exports are not necessarily dependable. Yesterday, China’s politburo signaled additional monetary ...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - What risks?

09 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Despite the emergence of growing global political risks in recent days and weeks, markets and investors appear to be unfazed - Jason offers thoughts a...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Taxing via tariffs'

09 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US President-elect Trump gave a wide ranging interview, touching on several points that matter to investors. Trump seemed to acknowledge the independe...

Top of the Morning: Nov Jobs Report, Fed roundup, & the week ahead

06 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As we close out another trading week, Mike Gourd drops by to recap the latest employment data, along with the remarks from several Fed officials this ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Employment without consensus'

06 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US employment report Friday looms, when markets get excited about what an unreliable survey tells us about the economic outlook. The aftermath of stri...

Washington Weekly Podcast: Government Funding, Farm Bill, Cabinet picks, & more

05 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In this episode, Shane updates on several key legislative priorities of Congress before year-end, including a government funding bill, a Farm bill, an...

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 21)

05 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard acknowledges the momentum across US equity markets, and weighs how a range of risk-factors could impact the lo...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Barnier falls'

05 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As expected, French Prime Minister Barnier lost a vote of confidence. That was the shortest-lived French government in over sixty years (he did outlas...

Top of the Morning: Asian markets and economies in 2025

04 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With new trade policies expected from the incoming Trump administration in the year ahead, we examine the potential impacts and implications to econom...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Rule of law'

04 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In the UK, 11pm is when pubs close and the risk of sending incoherent text messages increases. In South Korea, 11pm was when President Yoon decided to...

Top of the Morning: Emerging Markets in the Roaring 20s

03 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our series of year ahead conversations continue with a look at expectations for emerging market assets in 2025, including equities, bonds, and currenc...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Après moi, le déluge?'

03 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The French government faces a vote of confidence tomorrow, with both the far right and the left pledging to vote against Prime Minister Barnier over t...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Festive not frothy, yet

02 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Are the markets getting too frothy, and have investors become too exuberant? Jason weighs these concerns, along with takes inventory of tariffs being...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The importance of being the dollar'

02 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US President-elect Trump has threatened to tax US consumers aggressively via tariffs, if countries “replace” the dollar. It is not clear what “r...

CIO Global CIO Livestream: Year Ahead 2025

01 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The decade so far has been a “Roaring ‘20s” by many measures. Now, we’re getting set to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, lower interest rate...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Budgets and bonds'

29 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The French budget and bond yields are attracting attention, with the media ever eager to spot another Truss debacle. This weekend will (presumably) se...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The good life'

28 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US data on income and spending confirms that the US consumer has money and is prepared to spend it. There was not, perhaps, much doubt of the latter p...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Rate cuts and tax hikes'

27 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes signalled a gradual series of rate reductions next year (a quarter point each quarter seems reasonable). A Decembe...

How should I be positioned? with Richard Bernstein (RBA) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)

26 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As 2025 quickly approaches, Rich rejoins Jason for a year-ahead discussion, spanning the macroeconomic environment, to markets, to the landscape acros...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Orthodoxy does not have influence'

26 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Government by social media—US President-elect Trump pledged to hit US consumers with aggressive consumption tax hikes immediately on taking office. ...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - The other “Trump put”

25 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As we commence a shortened holiday trading week, Jason reflects on Friday’s announcement of global macro hedge fund investor Scott Bessent being nom...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Does orthodoxy also mean influence?'

25 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Markets reacted positively to US President-elect Trump nominating the financier Bessent as treasury secretary. Investors prefer orthodoxy, predictabil...

Top of the Morning: Key messages and investment themes for 2025

22 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our series of year ahead conversations continue as Mike Gourd stops by the studio to outline the key messages and investment themes from the UBS Chief...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Political checks and balances'

22 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Former US Congressperson Gaetz withdrew from the nomination to be US attorney general. This is not a post with much direct importance to investors (be...

Top of the Morning: Year Ahead (2025) Roaring ‘20s: The Next Stage

21 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Learn about key developments that will shape the next stage of the decade, including political change in the US, economic stimulus in China, geopoliti...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Ships and chips'

21 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

South Korean export data for early November rebounded from October’s decline, led by sales of microchips and ships—neither of these directly sugge...

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 20)

20 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares expectations for the year ahead, across global regions. We also spend time reflecting on this year’s...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation quirks'

20 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

UK consumer and producer price inflation data for October leads today’s data calendar. The headline numbers will be distorted by the weirdness of UK...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy and politics, in the absence of economics'

19 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There is a quiet data calendar. Eurozone final consumer price inflation data for October is the textbook definition of an economic non-event. The regi...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Supply-side economics

18 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As we await President-elect Trump’s personnel selections to carry out US economic policy, Jason examines the mix of known intended supply-side fisca...

Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Scott DiMaggio (AllianceBernstein) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)

18 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors in the wake of the US election outcome, and where to locate opportunity wit...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Broadening out'

18 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Financial markets had, perhaps, hoped that the next US treasury secretary would serve as a defender of free trade in the administration, and at least ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'All the single ladies (and lads)'

15 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

China’s singles’ consumer spending festival may have helped support October retail sales data. Industrial production data was less surprising, alt...

Washington Weekly Podcast: Cabinet nominations, DC visit, Congressional makeup

14 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We recap President-elect Trump’s visit to Washington DC (including his White House meeting with President Biden), along with review the known staff ...

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 19)

14 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs the latest US inflation data, along with considers the potential impact of US-imposed tariffs (to natio...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Disinflation beneath inflation'

14 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US October producer price inflation is due. These numbers better reflect corporate pricing power than does the consumer price data. The tone should be...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The future of inflation and interest rates'

13 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We get US consumer price inflation data today. In one sense, the numbers are curiously unimportant. There are potentially competing forces at work on ...

Top of the Morning: Long-term care costs and solutions

12 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We spotlight the latest Modern Retirement Monthly publication which breaks down the associated costs of long-term care, along with solutions to consid...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Prices, perceptions, and policy'

12 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The New York Federal Reserve survey of inflation expectations is of little economic relevance, but may be of future political interest. Inflation expe...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Reacting, fast and slow

11 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In the wake of the US election outcome, Jason breaks down what a second Trump term means for the markets, the US economy, and monetary policy. Plus, ...

CIO House View Monthly Livestream - November

11 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income and ElectionWatch Co-lead, provides an update on the vote count and outcome, while Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Holding back?'

11 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

China’s fiscal stimulus plans underwhelmed financial markets. There is a sense that consumer weakness has not been addressed directly (the weekend’...

Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview

08 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As we close out another trading week, Brian recaps the FOMC policy meeting, along with notable economic data releases from over the past few days. We...

CIO ElectionWatch Livestream: Day after

08 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

John Savercool, Head of Governmental Affairs US, David Lefkowitz, Head of US Equities, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income provide our i...

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 18)

07 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode of Viewpoints, and in the wake of the US election, Burkhard weighs what a second Trump term means for the markets, and how investors a...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Voting in the aisles of WalMart'

07 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Every pundit claims they know the reason for the US election outcome. This pundit is no different. In exit polls, Republican voters’ biggest concern...

Washington Weekly Podcast: Post-Election Day edition

06 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On this post-Election Day episode, Shane breaks down the known results (including for the race for the White House, along with the many Congressional ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Waiting and anticipating'

06 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

At the time of recording, the US Senate has been called for the Republican party, and the House and presidency remain open. Financial markets have mov...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Production, deflation, policy, and politics'

05 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There is another wave of noise from sentiment polls (today it is the turn of service sector sentiment). French September manufacturing and industrial ...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Homestretch

04 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With Election Day just hours away, and a Fed policy meeting slated for later this week, Jason drops by to share CIO’s assessment heading into the el...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Data is not changing anything'

04 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US employment report last Friday was weak, but distorted. It does not add much useful information on the US economy, although it serves as a remin...

Fixed Income Conversation Corner Podcast with Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO) and Mike Contopoulos (Richard Bernstein Advisors)

03 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Mike Contopoulos rejoins Leslie Falconio for a discussion around year-end asset class performance expectations, potential outcome implications of the ...