Up First from NPR
Global Economic Forecast Dims, Ukraine Peace Talks, Pope Francis Lies In State
Wed, 23 Apr 2025
Economists warned about an economic slowdown on the horizon for most countries around the world in the wake of century-high US tariffs. European, Ukrainian and U.S. officials meet in London for peace talks on Russia's war on Ukraine, and crowds began lining up at Saint Peter's Basilica in the Vatican to pay their last respects to Pope Francis.Want more comprehensive analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter.Today's episode of Up First was edited by Rafael Nam, Kevin Drew, Ryland Barton, Janaya Williams and Arezou Rezvani. It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Damian Herring. And our technical director is Carleigh Strange.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
Chapter 1: What are the economic impacts of the US-China trade war?
A Massachusetts man runs a business making high-end board games in China.
Or rather, he did. So we're in survival mode right now. What's the Trump administration doing to avoid the economic damage of the president's trade war?
I'm Steve Inskeep with A. Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News. Western European nations want more support for Ukraine. They're meeting today in London as the U.S. pushes for a ceasefire in Russia's invasion. How much territory is the United States pressing Ukraine to give up?
And more orders lined up before dawn at St. Peter's Basilica to visit Pope Francis as he lies in state and pay their final respects.
I want to see him alive, but I would love to at least see his body. But I'm praying for him. My soul is with him.
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Chapter 2: How is the Trump administration responding to the trade war's economic damage?
Stay with us. We've got all the news you need to start your day. We don't know how the U.S. will get out of a trade war, but the Trump administration jolted markets yesterday just by admitting the problem.
Chapter 3: What are the latest IMF forecasts on global economic growth?
The Treasury Secretary told business leaders that the U.S. and China need some way out of triple-digit tariffs. Multiple forecasts are calling for sharply lower economic growth. The International Monetary Fund is the latest. It tracks the world economy and sees economic trouble for the globe.
For more on what this means in the U.S., we're joined by NPR's Scott Horsley. So, Scott, I mean, the U.S. economy seemed to be chugging right along before the president launched his trade war.
How does it look now? Yeah, not so strong. The IMF lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the U.S. by almost a full percentage point as a result of that trade war. Businesses and consumers in the U.S. now have to pay an extra tax on almost everything we import.
And the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Garincha, says that's going to lead to higher inflation, at least in the short run, and slower economic growth.
For the United States, the tariffs represent a supply shock that reduces productivity and output permanently. and increases price pressures temporarily.
Other countries are also taking a hit from Trump's tariffs. The IMF stopped short of predicting a global recession, but says it expects trade growth to slow sharply in the coming year. So what does this mean then for businesses here and also around the globe? It means a lot of questions.
You know, we started this month with the president imposing very high tariffs on goods from all around the world. Many of those tariffs have since been suspended, but most imports still face a tax of at least 10%. And of course, goods from China are facing tariffs of 145%. That has brought a lot of trade between the world's two biggest economies to a near standstill.
I talked with Jonathan Silva, who runs a company in Massachusetts that manufactures high-end board games in China. He's got three or four truckloads of Finnish games that are basically stranded now because of those triple-digit tariffs. And his customers, like Target and Costco, have halted more than $16 million worth of orders in just the last couple of weeks.
So we're in survival mode right now. It's really difficult overnight to be able to communicate to a consumer that what they expected to purchase at one price is now double in price or higher.
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Chapter 4: How are US businesses affected by the tariffs?
This is the time of year when Silva would ordinarily be placing orders with Chinese manufacturers for games to be delivered before next Christmas. Instead, those plans are stuck in tariff limbo.
A 30-day hold right now, hoping that cooler heads prevail, and we come to a number that allows us to continue on with business and to bring these great items to families to enjoy.
So Silva mentioned their cooler heads, Scott.
Any sign of those cooler heads? Well, possibly. As you all mentioned, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has emerged as kind of the administration's good cop on trade. And yesterday, Bloomberg and others reported that Besant was telling investors he sees the current level of tariffs between the U.S. and China as unsustainable and suggesting there could be some de-escalation.
That was welcome news on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 1,000 points yesterday. Markets were also probably relieved that Trump said after the closing bell yesterday that he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. As big a drag as this trade war is for the global economy, the IMF's Karincha says it doesn't have to be that way.
Growth prospects could immediately improve if countries ease from their current trade policy stance and promote a new, clear, and stable trade environment.
That'd be good not only for businesses and consumers in the U.S. who want to buy stuff from China, but for American farmers and factories that want to sell their products around the world. All right.
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Chapter 5: Is there hope for easing US-China trade tensions?
That's NPR's Scott Horsley. Scott, thanks a lot.
You're welcome.
Senior officials from several countries will meet in London today to talk of a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
These talks will include the United States, but not the top diplomat. It will no longer involve Secretary of State Marco Rubio nor President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff. The U.S., you will recall, has wanted to go its own way in brokering a ceasefire while Europeans have focused more on supporting Ukraine. And the Europeans take the lead in the meeting today.
All right, joining us now to share some of the details about this meeting is journalist Willem Marks in London. So, Willem, who's hosting, who's taking part, and what's the goal here?
Well, the talks will be hosted by the British Foreign Secretary, David Lamy. They'll include officials from the U.S., Ukraine, France, Germany. The most senior U.S. official attending now will be President Trump's envoy for Ukraine, retired General Keith Kellogg.
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Chapter 6: Who is participating in the London peace talks on Ukraine?
And really at the heart of these talks will be an attempt to knit together the sometimes kind of disparate European and American visions for how a peace roadmap could be built. The Europeans have, for the last couple of months, continued to really insist that support for Ukraine, whether that's military, political or economic,
is going to be crucial to ensure that Russian President Vladimir Putin is forced to negotiate on more equal terms, shall we say. But members of the US administration have been briefing the media over the past few days that there are now options on the table, at least from their perspective. that would include the recognition by Ukraine of territory currently held by the invaders, Russia.
Chapter 7: What are the goals and challenges of the Ukraine peace talks?
Chapter 8: How are people paying respects to Pope Francis as he lies in state?
And more orders lined up before dawn at St. Peter's Basilica to visit Pope Francis as he lies in state and pay their final respects.
I want to see him alive, but I would love to at least see his body. But I'm praying for him. My soul is with him.
Stay with us. We've got all the news you need to start your day. We don't know how the U.S. will get out of a trade war, but the Trump administration jolted markets yesterday just by admitting the problem.
The Treasury Secretary told business leaders that the U.S. and China need some way out of triple-digit tariffs. Multiple forecasts are calling for sharply lower economic growth. The International Monetary Fund is the latest. It tracks the world economy and sees economic trouble for the globe.
For more on what this means in the U.S., we're joined by NPR's Scott Horsley. So, Scott, I mean, the U.S. economy seemed to be chugging right along before the president launched his trade war.
How does it look now? Yeah, not so strong. The IMF lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the U.S. by almost a full percentage point as a result of that trade war. Businesses and consumers in the U.S. now have to pay an extra tax on almost everything we import.
And the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Garincha, says that's going to lead to higher inflation, at least in the short run, and slower economic growth.
For the United States, the tariffs represent a supply shock that reduces productivity and output permanently. and increases price pressures temporarily.
Other countries are also taking a hit from Trump's tariffs. The IMF stopped short of predicting a global recession, but says it expects trade growth to slow sharply in the coming year. So what does this mean then for businesses here and also around the globe? It means a lot of questions.
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