Global Economic Forecast Dims, Ukraine Peace Talks, Pope Francis Lies In State
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What are the economic impacts of the US-China trade war?
A Massachusetts man runs a business making high-end board games in China.
Or rather, he did. So we're in survival mode right now. What's the Trump administration doing to avoid the economic damage of the president's trade war?
I'm Steve Inskeep with A. Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News. Western European nations want more support for Ukraine. They're meeting today in London as the U.S. pushes for a ceasefire in Russia's invasion. How much territory is the United States pressing Ukraine to give up?
And more orders lined up before dawn at St. Peter's Basilica to visit Pope Francis as he lies in state and pay their final respects.
I want to see him alive, but I would love to at least see his body. But I'm praying for him. My soul is with him.
How is the Trump administration responding to the trade war's economic damage?
Stay with us. We've got all the news you need to start your day. We don't know how the U.S. will get out of a trade war, but the Trump administration jolted markets yesterday just by admitting the problem.
What are the latest IMF forecasts on global economic growth?
The Treasury Secretary told business leaders that the U.S. and China need some way out of triple-digit tariffs. Multiple forecasts are calling for sharply lower economic growth. The International Monetary Fund is the latest. It tracks the world economy and sees economic trouble for the globe.
For more on what this means in the U.S., we're joined by NPR's Scott Horsley. So, Scott, I mean, the U.S. economy seemed to be chugging right along before the president launched his trade war.
How does it look now? Yeah, not so strong. The IMF lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the U.S. by almost a full percentage point as a result of that trade war. Businesses and consumers in the U.S. now have to pay an extra tax on almost everything we import. And the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Garincha, says that's going to lead to higher inflation, at least in the short run, and slower economic growth.
For the United States, the tariffs represent a supply shock that reduces productivity and output permanently. and increases price pressures temporarily.
Other countries are also taking a hit from Trump's tariffs. The IMF stopped short of predicting a global recession, but says it expects trade growth to slow sharply in the coming year. So what does this mean then for businesses here and also around the globe? It means a lot of questions. You know, we started this month with the president imposing very high tariffs on goods from all around the world. Many of those tariffs have since been suspended, but most imports still face a tax of at least 10%. And of course, goods from China are facing tariffs of 145%. That has brought a lot of trade between the world's two biggest economies to a near standstill. I talked with Jonathan Silva, who runs a company in Massachusetts that manufactures high-end board games in China. He's got three or four truckloads of Finnish games that are basically stranded now because of those triple-digit tariffs. And his customers, like Target and Costco, have halted more than $16 million worth of orders in just the last couple of weeks.
So we're in survival mode right now. It's really difficult overnight to be able to communicate to a consumer that what they expected to purchase at one price is now double in price or higher.
How are US businesses affected by the tariffs?
This is the time of year when Silva would ordinarily be placing orders with Chinese manufacturers for games to be delivered before next Christmas. Instead, those plans are stuck in tariff limbo.
A 30-day hold right now, hoping that cooler heads prevail, and we come to a number that allows us to continue on with business and to bring these great items to families to enjoy.
So Silva mentioned their cooler heads, Scott.
Any sign of those cooler heads? Well, possibly. As you all mentioned, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has emerged as kind of the administration's good cop on trade. And yesterday, Bloomberg and others reported that Besant was telling investors he sees the current level of tariffs between the U.S. and China as unsustainable and suggesting there could be some de-escalation.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are the economic impacts of the US-China trade war?
0:02–0:47
2
How is the Trump administration responding to the trade war's economic damage?
0:47–1:03
3
What are the latest IMF forecasts on global economic growth?
1:03–3:10
4
How are US businesses affected by the tariffs?
3:10–4:33
5
Is there hope for easing US-China trade tensions?
4:33–5:29
6
Who is participating in the London peace talks on Ukraine?
5:29–6:07
7
What are the goals and challenges of the Ukraine peace talks?
6:07
8
How are people paying respects to Pope Francis as he lies in state?
0:32–12:17
Speakers
8 identifiedMore from Up First from NPR
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