Up First from NPR
Russia-Ukraine 1000 Days, Hong Kong Activists Sentenced, Trump And Your Money
Tue, 19 Nov 2024
1,000 days of war have devastated Ukraine and transformed life in Russia, as President Vladimir Putin expands nuclear threats amid the escalating conflict. In Hong Kong, pro-democracy activists are sentenced under a sweeping national security law. And, President-elect Donald Trump promises sweeping tax cuts, but experts warn his plans could deepen the national debt.Want more comprehensive analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter.Today's episode of Up First was edited by Kevin Drew, Ryland Barton, Rafael Nam, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Alice Woelfle.It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas and Milton Guevara.We get engineering support from Arthur Laurent. And our technical director is Zac Coleman.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
Chapter 1: What has happened in Ukraine after 1000 days of war?
It's been a thousand days since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war has devastated Ukraine and transformed life in Russia. How much further could it escalate as Moscow warns that U.S. missiles could trigger a nuclear response?
I'm Leila Fadil, that's Michelle Martin, and this is Up First from NPR News. In Hong Kong, dozens of pro-democracy activists are sentenced to prison under a national security law that critics say has crushed dissent. Why was a political poll considered a threat and what message is China sending with these verdicts?
And President-elect Trump is laying out big promises for tax cuts.
We will have no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security benefits.
Sounds appealing, but could his plan blow a hole in the federal budget? Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day. Today marks a thousand days since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbor Ukraine. The war forced the displacement of millions of Ukrainians from their homes. It's led to the death and maiming of hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers.
But the war has also brought immense changes to life in Russia, and in the past hours, a possibly significant development. Joining us to talk about this is NPR's Moscow correspondent Charles Maines. He's reported out of Russia since the beginning of the conflict, and he's here to tell us more about this. Charles, good morning.
Hi there.
So before we get to the thousand days, tell us what you can about this breaking news.
Well, Russia's defense ministry today said Ukraine had carried out its first attacks on Russian territory using American-made long-range attackums. Now, according to the ministry, Ukraine fired six of these missiles on Russia's western Bryansk region, five of which Russian air defenses destroyed mid-flight, and the sixth the ministry claimed to have downed. No injuries were reported.
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Chapter 2: Why were pro-democracy activists sentenced in Hong Kong?
And then there's the economy. Today, Russia is the world's most sanctioned state, but those are largely Western-imposed sanctions. So big-name Western companies like McDonald's, Apple, and Starbucks, they've all left. But the country has pivoted to new markets and new trade partners, often in China. So the result is that most of what you buy and what you say, read and watch, it's all changed.
So do we have a sense of what Russians think about all this? I mean, you've very much described just kind of the repressive political atmosphere there. But is there any way to know how Russians feel about the war, how they feel about all the changes it's brought?
Yeah, you know, the government claims that Russian society is united behind the war effort and state polls would support that. But some would certainly point to the repressions that you mentioned earlier. Meanwhile, we've got tens of thousands of Russians who fled the country in opposition to the war, thousands more who've gone to jail for civil disobedience at home.
And just in conversations I have regularly with people who aren't government critics or politically active per se, they just tell me they wish the whole thing would end.
And of course, President-elect Trump is going to be returning to the White House. He has said that he will negotiate with Putin to end the war. Do we have a sense of how this is being seen in Russia?
You know, I think it's fair to say there's been a surging confidence in Moscow with Trump's suggestions that he may end military support to Ukraine, a big part of it. But there's also just a feeling that Russia, which faced repeat setbacks early on in the war, can now just outlast Ukraine, whatever Trump ends up doing.
That is NPR's Charles Mintz in Moscow. Charles, thank you.
Thank you.
Hong Kong's government, which is controlled by China, sentenced 45 pro-democracy activists to prison sentences of up to 10 years each.
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Chapter 3: What are Trump's tax cut proposals?
Yeah.
Has the Chinese government responded in some way to this? They've stayed quiet today, but their line has been unequivocal from the start. In Beijing's view, the people arrested under this national security law are troublemakers. They are criminals who incited violent protests that diminished Hong Kong as a global financial center.
And so they've applauded the security law that's nabbed these 45 people and said it is a much needed measure to return Hong Kong to order.
So given all you've told us about just the level of repression there, is there any way to know about how people in Hong Kong are feeling about this? And might there be any more protests?
There will likely not be protests. We've seen what happened to people who have continued to protest. They are mostly now in prison. So likely no public defiance, but perhaps some private defiance. Gwyneth Ho, who rose to prominence as a journalist and then became an activist, she was one of the people sentenced today with a seven-year prison sentence.
Supporters of hers released a statement on Facebook in which she actually expressed pride at what she'd achieved. And she said, for these values, it was worth to dare to act. And that's why she, quote, dared to suffer.
That is NPR's Emily Fang. Emily, thank you.
Thank you.
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised to put more money back in Americans' pockets by cutting their taxes.
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Chapter 4: How could Trump's tax plan affect the federal budget?
So what will a second Trump presidency mean for your taxes? It might mean a lower tax bill, but it could have drastic consequences for the national budget.
Here to explain all this is Laurel Wamsley, who covers personal finance for NPR. Good morning, Laurel. Hey, Michelle. Okay, so Trump is making a lot of promises about taxes. What's the most important thing for people to know?
Well, the biggest thing is that Trump is very likely to extend the big tax changes that he pushed through in 2017. That was a pretty sweeping law, and it did lower most people's tax bills. For households that say make $60,000 to $100,000 a year, extending these tax cuts means that those folks get to keep about $1,000 extra dollars a year.
But wealthy people saw the most benefit for those who make more than a million dollars. it means reducing their taxes on average by about $70,000. And there are also big corporate tax cuts as part of that package, too. But all these cuts are expensive. Extending the 2017 law could increase the national debt by more than $4 trillion over the next 10 years. And that really matters.
Less tax revenue coming in means cutting government programs, for example.
Let's talk about some of Trump's other proposals. For instance, no taxes on tips. What sort of impact would that have?
Yeah, this is a tax cut that made big headlines, but it only impacts a small part of the labor market, only about 2.5% of all jobs. And many tipped workers, over a third of them, earn so little that they already don't pay federal income tax. So now there aren't too many details on how exactly all of this would work, but eliminating tax on tips would probably lead to some kind of squirrely effects.
For example, say I hire a guy to trim the tree at my house, and that's something I usually pay him $500 to do. Now he might tell me that it costs $300 to trim my tree, but that he expects a $200 tip, knowing that he won't be taxed on that portion of the income. We could see tipping proliferate into places we haven't seen it before.
And employers could also attempt to reclassify employees as tipped workers and drop their pay to the tipped minimum wage. And for that, the federal minimum wage right now is $2.13 an hour. And like the 2017 tax cuts, this would blow another hole in the federal budget. This one would cost us about $100 billion over 10 years. Trump also says he would stop taxing Social Security benefits.
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