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Chapter 1: What does CNN mean by calling the Democratic primary a 'clown car'?
so again reacting to last night while everything is going on right you know kenneth said something about democrats figuring themselves out right now as they're going through this next i'm paraphrasing what you said earlier but uh here's cnn talking about who is their leading candidate and harry henson calls it a clown show go ahead rob
And this is just a downright clown car at this point on the Democratic side. I mean, just take a look here. Top choices for the 2028 DemPres nominee. You have a leader, but it's not really a clear leader. It's within the margin area. You have Newsom at 19%. Then you have former Vice President Kamala Harris at 18%.
Quite a weak number for her, given that, of course, she was the nominee last time around. Pete Buttigieg, who of course has run before, 13%. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%. This is just a total clown car. It is a total mess. There is no clear front runner at this particular point on the Democratic side. Who the heck knows who the nominee's gonna be in three, two years.
It has been a long time since we've had a Democratic race like this. Yeah, it has been a long time. This is very unusual for the Democratic side to not have a clear front runner at this point. National early poll leader at least 25%. Look at this.
Chapter 2: Who are the leading candidates in the 2028 Democratic primary?
This year, we get the giant question mark. No one, no one, no one, no one. In 2020, when there was no incumbent, it was Joe Biden who was there, Hillary Clinton in both 08 and 16, and Al Gore in both 2000 and 2004 at this point, where at least at 25% of the early process.
You have to go all the way back, all the way back from when I wasn't even in elementary school yet, not even in pre-K yet, to 1992, that was the last cycle. in which there was no clear frontrunner at this point. 1992. He said that way since like 200 years ago. Back before phones. Since the era. So what about Newsom? What are the predictions Mark is saying his odds are? Yeah, okay.
So it seems to me that
Yeah. So that's pretty wild when you see that.
Does that kind of make sense, though? Do you think that kind of makes sense? Yeah. I mean, there's a civil war in the Democratic Party was going on in the last election between the progressives and the center left. And the progressives have all the energy right now. Mamdani in New York, AOC. And it's very hard for someone who's more electable. to come out in the Democratic Party.
I mean, there's a war on in the Republican Party, too, but it's much more one-sided. But in the Democratic Party, I mean, it's sort of... I think the progressives are clearly on top. I think it's going to be a progressive candidate, you know, somebody pretty left-leaning. But who knows?
By the way, that's actually a very good point, Tom, the way Kenneth is saying it, because if you see right now who are the superstars of the left today, two names, who are the superstars? Mamdani and AOC. And you keep seeing them collaborating. Even the video they made yesterday about how in Spanish, illegal immigrants, you can get child care free in New York, and here's how to get it.
I don't know if you saw that clip or not. Gratis, gratis. But you know what's interesting is young immigrants good-looking, charming, charismatic, and they at least have ideas they're presenting. Of course they're socialist ideas. Of course there may be bad ideas. Of course history says these ideas don't work, but they're pitching ideas. There's two different communities.
One is sitting there saying, he's evil, he's evil, he's evil.
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Chapter 3: Why is there no clear front runner in the Democratic race?
The other one is saying, let's raise taxes on the rich and let's give free benefits to illegal immigrants. Believe it or not, these guys are getting more momentum than these guys. Because there is no ideas here. It's just calling them out. And it's interesting if we go then, by the way, here's a crazy question for you guys. You know, Kenneth, you were around back in 1992.
I wasn't a young man already in 1992. I was around. The way he said it. But for you, when you watch something like this, and you see the momentum that they're creating,
Nobody thought, if I told you two years ago or three years ago, a full-on socialist, one step away from a communist, speaks like a communist, he speaks as if he's read the Communist Manifesto six, seven, eight times, and he's a Muslim, and in New York City, in the capital of capitalism, in the headquarters of capitalism, right, financial capital of the world, that took over London, right?
that a socialist, Muslim, progressive guy is going to become the mayor, people would have said, you're out of your mind. So if that's the case, do you think it's that crazy to say, maybe you can do that in New York? If you can do that in New York City, maybe you can do that at the national level with somebody like an AOC.
Yeah, I mean, I've been saying to people all over the world who are sort of worried about the re-election of a Trump-like figure, they're so scared about that, I say, wait till you see the election of a Mamdani-like person, you know, in the United States, what that's going to bring.
I mean, the incredible swing, the uncertainty, the fact that you could, you know, our country's so far apart, and you could swing from one to the other. But Yeah, no, Mamdani is absolutely good looking, charming, knows how to use social media. No question about it. And I do have my sort of, OK, they're very left leaning, but, you know, good friends in New York who kind of like him.
because basically they said the last two guys were idiots, and so at least he doesn't seem like an idiot, which, you know, he clearly, you know, seems thoughtful, even if not literate economically. So, you know, we'll see, but...
I don't know how he's going to do in New York because he inherited all this spending, all these fiscal problems, and if he raises taxes on the wealthy like he wants to, he's just going to chase them out, and it's going to lose money. It's going to make him feel good, but it's going to lose money.
Who's going to pay the biggest price? You're somebody that... You've been in the space of studying what works, what doesn't work. This is your world, right? Ph.D., MIT in economics. You know, chief economist at IMF. Your world is to study what works, what doesn't work, right?
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Chapter 4: How does the civil war between progressives and moderates affect the Democratic Party?
You may even lose those guys. that are going to sit there and say, I'm going to go look at my options. You're seeing Californians right now going to Nevada, right? Because you go there, no state taxes. Another one of those somewhat pro-friendly. Mark Wahlberg bought a place there. Mark Wahlberg bought a place here, I believe, somewhere in Delray. You now heard...
Palantirs moving their headquarters to Miami. You saw Griffin. You saw Citadel. You saw what's going on with folks, with companies moving to Palm Beach. Who would have thought people would have moved to Palm Beach? Think about the talent. The average person you're hiring in Palm Beach, depends on east, closer to the water or the other side, what is the age there?
But people are saying, no, I'm still going to go to Palm Beach and build my business there. So I don't know. I don't know what's going to happen with these two states. I don't know if they're doing it intentionally or not. But the reality of it is, these are policies that's going to push your job creators and investors out, and it ends up hurting middle Americans in those cities.
Different types of sales leaders I've worked with the last 20 years. One of them are those that are boss, that are telling you what to do. One of them is the one that wants to be your friend. He wants to say, hey, Johnny, let me help you get to this next level. And then the other one is the leader, the leader that's sitting down with you, accountable, challenged, pushing you.
You can do more expectation, business planning. Each one of them has pros and blind spots. Once a year, I host an event called the Sales Leadership Summit. This year, we're doing it at the beautiful Trump throughout March 25th through the 27th, where we talk about topics like this, 200 plus pages in a manual with people from around the world.
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Chapter 5: What does the rise of AOC and Mamdani signify for Democratic leadership?
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