Valuetainment
“Midterms Will Be Dictated” - Iran War & U.S. Troop Losses SHAKE 2026 Election Odds
04 Mar 2026
Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What credibility issues arise during the Iran conflict discussion?
And you have a lot of U.S. influencers, Pat, that were saying, see, we killed all these girls before it was even known. These are Americans that don't like Trump. There's two different things here. Let me just tell you what's the part where everybody loses credibility, all of us. We're all a part of it, and I'm part of it as well, because I have opinions, right?
And you push back, or we agree, or we go back and forth, right? Let me tell you where you lose credibility. How critical have I been of Reza Pahlavi? Pretty damn critical. Has anybody been more critical of Reza Pahlavi except from me that is in, you know, what do you call it, somebody that's in the space? Nobody has been, right?
To the point where he unfollowed me, his daughter unfollowed me, his wife got upset about what I said, all of this stuff. That entire community, what do you call it, the Pahlavi community. Adam, can you sit back a little bit? This is what Vinny was talking about. So the whole community is against it, right? But you got to give the guy credit the last six weeks. And I've said it many times.
He's done the right thing. You lose credibility when you can't even give credit for anything the other person does right. That's when you lose credibility. And we were talking about a couple different guys in this space that are kind of distancing themselves from Trump, probably because sponsorship money stopped or jobs stopped or Hollywood jobs stopped.
And, you know, I'm not going to mention names, but, you know, we were pretty vocal about it where it's like, hey, I think this is a career decision. I get it on what could happen here. But to me, if this thing goes less than four weeks, if it goes less than four weeks and it's done, they surrender. Iran opens up and 90 million people are officially in business.
And that's safety in the Middle East. Imagine if Iran joins the border of peace. Hey, we're a board of peace. Imagine if they joined that and say, hey, let's figure out a way to bring peace to the Middle East. Imagine if that actually does take place. Whose life is safer? Everyone's life is safer. If that happens, you have to give the man credit.
But at the same time, I'm telling you guys right now, if this turns into six-plus months, I have a hard time with that myself. If this turns into a prolonged war with all this stuff and speculation... I'm telling you right now, I myself will come out and say, what happened here?
But I don't think that's going to take place because I'm convinced to the core, the profile of a Trump, when you do, you know, in the insurance space, anyways, in the insurance space, I know what a man like Trump thinks like. We did business in similar ways in a much smaller, you know, non-public thing that nobody tracks. I understand how a man like that thinks.
If you don't go for their, if you go for their throat first, you make an example, you take him out, you earn credibility, then you go out there and say, now can we negotiate? And you become friends. If that's what he does, this could lead to possibly his biggest accomplishment. I don't think you can put anything above this.
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Chapter 2: How does Trump’s strategy impact the political landscape?
That's how... wide of a range it is, ugly and just historic on how this thing could turn out. Great point, but there was a moment, I don't know if you saw this clip, there's a moment in the State of the Union where Trump gives Rubio a shout out and he steps back and Rubio is just sitting there like this and the camera flips and you see Trump give him the nod.
I think that was that moment because J.D. 's behind him. giving him the nod. And I'll send the video to Rob. It's actually a really dope moment. But, Pat, here's my thing about what's happening. I want, and God rest his souls, for the soldiers that were killed in action, because, by the way, no boots on the ground. I want zero, zero boots, United States, on the ground in Iran. And if by some...
crazy reason that we have to, Israel better put boots on the ground as well with us. Because when Iraq, they didn't put any troops on the ground. If we're going to play that game, they're going to come in with us. That's my only thing. I don't think it'll get there, but if it does, Israel better get their hands dirty as well in that sense.
But I think this is going to be all aerial, all strategic, all military, all strikes, and then until they realize everybody's gone, that they need to be gone, and then the people take over. That's what I think. Go ahead, Tom. I think it's very telling what the markets are doing this morning. West Texas Intermediate, it's up 6%. Gold, it's up 2%. NASDAQ, down a tenth of a percent, 26%.
S&P, down two-tenths of a percent, 14%. The reaction from the market wasn't what... The pundits on the Sunday news shows, oh, the markets will be in free fall on Monday. They're not. How sensitive are our stock markets, Adam, right now to uncertainty, to earnings reports, to the impact of AI?
It moved more last week before the war even started in Wednesday when everybody freaked out about block and was laying off 4,000. And I think what the markets are saying right now, Pat, is we feel pretty good about this. That's what the markets are saying. In an already tense situation for our markets with AI and layoffs, these markets are not moving, not the way that they were predicted to be.
And I think that spells confidence from the underlying forces on the markets. Wouldn't you say, Adam? Confidence that this is going to play out. This is not a free fall and a retreat to bonds and cash. If you look at the S&P right now, what's S&P doing right now? Down 20? Dow was down 135, Nasdaq's down 39. I mean, listen, it's red, but it's not the kind of red you expect.
And the day is still early, by the way. We got plenty of time. West Texas Intermediate, drill, baby, drill. We are selling oil to the world right now at $71. That is leadership on energy. And look how that's helping the world. Look at this. Yeah, crude jumped up, but it went from 67 to 71. That's not a giant jump. That means we are... What do you think it'll be by the end of the week?
Oil by the end of the week? I think oil will get to maybe 80 by the end of the week. I don't think the American oil will. I don't think so. Adam? Well, you brought up the Peace Prize. I just want to address that for a second. When it comes to Trump and the Peace Prize, I think he doesn't care about that at this point. He solved all these wars, you know, eight wars, whatever it is.
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Chapter 3: What market reactions are observed amidst the Iran conflict?
Who's taking these people seriously? Hey, guys, stand up if you care about Americans first or sit down if you care about illegal immigrants first. They stay seated. So these people have such a severe case of TDS that they're not even rooting to free the Iranian people. Think about that for a second.
They're so... The Gays for Gaza crowd, as I call them, they hate Trump so much that they're rooting against America. They're not recognizing these people are calling for their freedom... And they don't silence. What's the one thing they've said in the last month? Well, you know, yeah, Israel, they shot a school full of children. Turned out that was the IRGC.
But if that's what you care about, you didn't care that 30, 40, 50,000 Iranians were killed? To me, it's the hypocrisy. And Trump is just focusing on the signal. Sure. You will watch, and everybody has their own ideology, okay, of where they're at. Everybody. Everybody used to love me when I was only talking about business until I started opening my mouth about politics and supporting Trump.
Then all of a sudden, you know what? Just stick to business. Okay, totally. And by the way, I understand why you don't like me talking about politics. But then long-term, 3, 5, 10, this is a 20-year race, right? on who gains credibility with their voice. And during the 20 years, guess what's going to happen?
A lot of fumbles, a lot of mistakes, a lot of ups and downs, and everyone's going to watch how people handle themselves, if they were fair players or not. Long term, the market is always going to favor fair players. Always. If you're able to stay reasonable. Rob, can you pull up the power versus force? The power versus force. I always go back to this. If you go to power versus force,
And he listened to any of the influencers, commentators, CNN, whoever you want to talk about, podcasters. And look at the level. That's terrible quality. Is that the best one, Rob? There's a better one. But if he clicks on it, it'll open up. You just have to click on it to open up for the quality to be better. Because, no, meaning click on the visit. Yeah, there you go. Zoom in.
Or it's still pretty bad. Zoom in a little bit, Rob. Okay, we'll just work with this. So if you look from the lowest level and focus on the word level, not God view, life view, scale, go to level. Go all the way down. Shame. These are people that are driven by shame. Then guilt. Then apathy. Then grief. Then fear. Then desire. Then anger.
Then pride, courage, neutrality, willingness, acceptance, reason, love, joy, peace, enlightenment. Your goal is to be in the blue. And it takes a long time to get into blue, and we all flirt with orange. Everybody flirts with orange. So, by the way, nobody doesn't flirt with that. But it's how long do you stay there? How long do you stay there? Are you able to reason? Are you able to love?
Are you able to go through acceptance to say, hey, we have differences. I get it. Are you willing to have the conversation? Are you willing to see the other side and what they're thinking about? Market long-term is going to favor.
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Chapter 4: How might the outcome of the conflict affect the 2026 midterm elections?
All these comments that's made, the rage-baiting comments, they're great for viewership, but reason is critical. Can these people reason? Can they have an understanding of what's going on? And by the way, sometimes it's us. It's like, let me understand what the other side of the argument is. Why do you believe what you believe in? This is the reason why. Okay, great.
And I think we have to go back to that. But right now, tensions are high. FYI, until this thing ends, I don't think the criticism is going to stop. And I actually understand it for the people. You said it's not going to be war. I get that. Light it up as much as you want. But if this thing ends early, I'm curious to know what they're going to say. Is it going to be buts?
But look at, but what about, but how about, or is it going to be, look, man, I got to give the guy credit. I don't know what's going to happen there, but we'll be watching the market to see how they react to it.
Listen, as we're going through this, the one thing that we can't recognize enough for what they do is the armed forces, the folks in the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, every one of these guys on what they're doing. Without them, you and I wouldn't have the freedom that we have to be safe, to go out there and do what we're doing.
Sometimes you forget about the military, but if you're somebody that served in the military, and you believe the future looks bright, or you have a friend or family that does, and you want to recognize them, Rob, if you can go up, VT Merch, we have an armed force collection. If you can go down a little bit, there's two hats that every time we get them, we can't keep them on.
That's one of them, but keep going down, keep going down, keep going down, keep going down. That one to the right, you see that one zoom in? This one, whenever it comes in, it goes just as quickly. I love that. It's an incredible – by the way, if you want to get – yeah, the future looks bright, green camo. And then also, Rob, go back if you can. There's another one as well on the bottom left.
Keep going, keep going, keep going right there. Those two. Those two are two of the most popular hats that we have. For folks in the military, that word with future looks bright on the right side. So put the link below, Rob. Go to vtmerch.com. Place an order, especially at a time like this. Represent our military for the patriotic job that they're doing out there.
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Chapter 5: What are the implications of a potential peace breakthrough in Iran?
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