Chapter 1: What are the odds of a government shutdown and why are they increasing?
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast, where we cover the top news for investors every morning. It's good to have you here on this Monday, the 26th of January. I'm Julie Morgan. The odds of a government shutdown are higher this morning.
Odds shot up on prediction markets after Senate Democrats vowed to block a $1.2 trillion funding package that includes appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement falls under the purview of DHS. Odds of a government shutdown by January 31st surged to 79% on Kaoshi, up from 11.5% on Friday. On Polly Market, the odds jumped to 80% from 9%.
The standoff intensified after federal immigration agents shot and killed Alex Preddy in Minneapolis on Saturday. Preddy was a 37-year-old ICU nurse and a U.S. citizen. This is the second such incident this month, The shooting has galvanized Democratic opposition to the funding measure.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement on Saturday night that Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included.
Chapter 2: What is Canada's stance on a free trade deal with China?
The package needs 60 votes to overcome the filibuster. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. However, several key swing votes have now turned against the bill. A massive winter storm has further complicated matters, forcing the Senate to cancel Monday votes and shortening an already tight timeline for to avert the shutdown. This is a very popular story with 260 comments thus far.
ICE and the deportation drive is also the top story in the Wall Street Breakfast newsletter. A link to sign up is in the show notes section. By the way, on a different topic, but I want to tell you about another link I'm including in show notes today. It's for our Investing Experts Live Top Ideas for 2026 event. It's coming up tomorrow at noon and there's still time to register.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has clarified the country's position on a potential trade agreement with China. Carney said Canada has no intention of pursuing a free trade agreement with China.
He added that Canada has addressed some of the issues that emerged over the past few years and in many respects is moving back to the future across sectors such as EVs, agriculture, fish and other food products, but with stronger safeguards in place.
The Prime Minister further said that Canada respects its obligations under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement and will not pursue a free trade deal without notifying the other two parties.
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Chapter 3: How did gold prices reach over $5,000 per ounce?
The statement to reporters on Sunday comes after President Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Saturday that if Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% tariff. Gold is above $5,000 an ounce and reached that mark for the first time on Sunday. Spot gold is up 2.1% to $5,095, building on an 8.5% gain last week.
A weaker dollar reinforced demand with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falling 1.6% for its biggest weekly decline since May, making precious metals more affordable for most buyers. Silver also hit a record high. It's up 6.5% to 109. Max Belmont, a portfolio manager at First Eagle Investment Management, told Bloomberg that gold is the inverse of confidence.
It's a hedge against unexpected bouts of inflation, unanticipated drawdowns in the market, and flare-ups in geopolitical risk. A few other trending articles, and the first two have to do with the winter storm that so many have had to deal with this weekend. A winter storm forces the most flight cancellations since the pandemic.
Chapter 4: What impact is the winter storm having on the Senate's schedule?
A deep freeze knocks Texas energy and industrial operations offline. And Samsung nears NVIDIA certification for the HBM4 AI memory, according to a report. On our Catalyst Watch for the day, we have one item. Hekla Mining will hold an Investor Day event in New York City.
Presentations will be made by the senior management covering strategy, finance, operations, exploration, sustainability, and innovation. On Wall Street, ahead of the opening bell, Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures are in the red. Crude oil is little changed at $61 a barrel. Bitcoin is up 1.3% at $87,000. The FTSE 100 is little changed, and the same is true for the DAX.
USA Rare Earth is on our list of the biggest movers of the day pre-market.
Chapter 5: What are the biggest stock movers in the market today?
USAR is up 51% following a report that the Trump administration is set to invest $1.6 billion in the company for a 10% equity stake. It would be the largest U.S. government commitment to the Rare Earth sector to date. And on today's economic calendar at 8.30 a.m., the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. That's it for today's Wall Street Breakfast.
Chapter 6: What economic indicators should investors watch for today?
Thanks for listening. To take full advantage of Seeking Alpha with coverage on significant stocks and ETFs, become a premium subscriber. Check out seekingalpha.com slash subscriptions. I'm your host, Julie Morgan. Go out and make it a great day.