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Wall Street Breakfast

UBS hikes private credit default view

25 Feb 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

1.027 - 26.609 Julie Morgan

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast, where we cover the top news for investors every morning. It's good to have you here on this Wednesday, February 25th. I'm Julie Morgan. Strategists at UBS Group now warn that default rates in private credit could climb to as high as 15%. That's two percentage points above the firm's forecast issued less than a month ago.

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26.669 - 54.096 Julie Morgan

In that earlier report, UBS cautioned that direct lenders, might face defaults of around 13% if artificial intelligence leads to an aggressive disruption across corporate borrowers. But that view became even more bearish in recent weeks as fears about AI upending the U.S. economy deepened. The report published on Tuesday said, What is new? A clearer catalyst. Rapid, severe AI disruption.

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54.397 - 68.96 Julie Morgan

Concerns about such a scenario have intensified in recent days. Stocks opened the week lower after a report from Citrini Research rattled markets by outlining a scenario in which advances in AI push U.S.

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Chapter 2: What are UBS's updated forecasts for private credit default rates?

68.98 - 89.37 Julie Morgan

unemployment into the double digits by 2028. The strategist also flagged elevated risk in other credit markets, projecting worst-case default rates of up to 6% for leveraged loans and 10% for high-yield bonds, above the estimates of up to 4% and 8% in the previous report.

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90.059 - 112.506 Julie Morgan

The CFO of AMC Entertainment, Sean Goodman, on Tuesday told investors there's a significant opportunity to continue closing underperforming theaters. He said on the post-earnings conference call that the company has the option to renew or terminate roughly 85 leases a year. That's about 10 percent of its locations.

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112.486 - 131.878 Julie Morgan

Goodman added that AMC will be closing more theaters than they open, and that the new ones that they're opening are generating significantly more profit than the ones they close. The remarks followed the company's report of lower fourth-quarter attendance and a decline in the average number of screens compared with the prior year.

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131.858 - 160.233 Julie Morgan

In response to a question regarding the level of capital expenditures, Goodman stated that a few new theater locations are planned for 2026 and beyond. Those additions have already been incorporated into the company's projected CapEx range of $175 million to $225 million. AMC is down 25% so far this year. And we have one item from Tuesday night's State of the Union address.

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160.733 - 183.921 Julie Morgan

President Trump has said that major technology companies developing artificial intelligence data centers will have to cover their electricity needs under what he called a newly negotiated rate protection pledge. Trump said tech firms would be told to generate dedicated power for their expanding AI infrastructure rather than drawing additional load from a local grid.

183.901 - 196.921 Julie Morgan

He did not name the companies involved or provide details on how the plan would be implemented or enforced. Reuters reported that the White House is expected to host companies in early March to formalize the effort.

197.281 - 218.92 Julie Morgan

If you remember, last month Microsoft unveiled a plan to ensure their data centers don't increase consumers' electricity prices and minimize water use and replenish more of the water than they use. Wedbush has said it expects other big tech organizations to follow soon after, given the increased scrutiny from federal, state, and local governments.

219.777 - 243.657 Julie Morgan

Now we have a look at a few other articles that are trending. Warner Brothers Discovery says the Ray's Paramount Skydance bid may be superior. Anthropix softens its AI safety policy to stay competitive. And the Trump administration is reportedly exploring requiring banks to collect citizenship data. We have a busy catalyst to watch for the day.

243.697 - 260.876 Julie Morgan

Samsung's Galaxy Unpacked Media event will include the unveiling of the new Galaxy S26 phone lineup, showcasing of new Galaxy AI features and potentially new Galaxy Buds. Lumen Technologies will hold its Investor Day.

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