Whateley
Dataland! | Who should have actually won? - The Means Test with Adam Simpson! (01.06.26)
01 Jun 2026
Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What statistical insights are shared about the weekend's results?
Oh, Dartland, I've got this for you. I think it was a five-point margin expected score at three-quarter time. Stephen King. You know why they do it?
I never did it, but I think the expected score for everyone out there, I think it's just that they've plotted the last 10 years of all the set shots and snaps. And so if you miss one that you should kick, then the expected score is you should have, so they'll give you a waiting. So it's not just six points. I think it... It could be four point, whatever it is.
So if you're going in at halftime and you're a coach and you look at that stat and you're 35 points down like Clarko was, but the expected score was you're 10 points down, then you do adjust. Boys, don't panic. So there's a bit of sell in the players, but we're going well. We're just going to convert a bit better or get shots from better positions or whatever the conversation is.
So I suppose that's why coaches would look at it. would be, it might influence, we don't need to change anything. We're actually right in this game because of this, this and this.
So that's why coaches may look at it. I never did though. There was one screaming off the page here, which didn't marry up at all with what we watched. What was the Hawthorne expected score?
Well, they won by 52 and the expected score was they should have only won by 12. That wasn't the game we called. Yes, well, if you think about it, the Saints kicked five points in the first half. I reckon they were four easy misses. So there's an example of they should have kicked those goals.
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Chapter 2: How do expected scores influence coaching decisions?
And then the last quarter, I think they missed a couple of easy ones as well. And I think it goes the other way too. If you kick goals out of your backside, then it goes the other way. You get points taken off you. Yes, yeah. So it works both ways. Data land.