Whateley
Gold Coast V Hawthorn preview | Strategy 2026 with Brenton Sanderson (18.06.26)
18 Jun 2026
Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What recent challenges have Gold Coast and Hawthorn faced?
Well, at the end of the day, we lost to the reigning premiers two weeks ago. They've always been a side that we've struggled deeply across, and we understand that we've got to grow in that space. We lost to the runners-up on their home deck last week. We had a disappointing last quarter versus North Melbourne.
So at the end of the day, we've got some challenges that we need to get better, and we understand that. But what we don't do is we don't sit there and throw the baby out with the bathwater. We've got some things in our game that are working incredibly well. We've got some other parts of our game that we've got to get better at. That's the nature of AFL sport. If it was easy, you know what?
Anyone would be doing it, but they're not. I don't think you play against any Damien Hardwick sides and think, oh, yeah, this will be an easy one. We'll just roll over here. So he's going to have them roll it up, and rightly so. But, you know, we lost our last game. We've got a lot to play for. Our form line, win-loss-wise, hasn't been great either. So this is a really important phase of the year.
To be where we want to be come the later part of the season, we have to beat teams like the Suns, and this is a massive game for us.
This is a quite excellent backdrop to Friday night footy. Gold Coast and Hawthorne. Hawthorne have been walloped the last few times they've been to Gold Coast, which is a bit of a weird one as well. All right, let's dig into the Suns as a starting point. Home wins compared to away losses. What are you finding?
Yeah, well, we're probably covering old ground here, but it's just popped up again for me when I'm looking at the profile of the Suns because... Their 2026 home record is excellent. It's six and one. So they've only lost to Brisbane at home. Their wins are Geelong, West Coast, Essendon, Giants, St Kilda, Port Adelaide. So six and one at home, but on the road, they're much less effective.
So they had the win against Richmond, but they've lost to Melbourne, Sydney, Hawthorne, North Melbourne and Geelong. So a one and five record away. It's really simple. When they play at home, they score and score big. So their offensive profile is 125, 131, 119, 83, 89, 98. So it's all up. Their offensive stuff is excellent when they play on the Gold Coast. They score from turnover.
They score from clearance. And their forward half intercepts are significantly increased as at home. So they can't score on the road. That's, I guess, the biggest challenge. They had a bit of a shootout with Melbourne. They lost 109 to 89 when they played Melbourne here at the MCG, but Sydney held them to 68 points away. Hawthorne held them to 63 and Geelong held them to 60.
So it's pretty simple, Gerard. They're a really good scoring side when they play on the Gold Coast, but they have their challenges of scoring when they are away from home. Did the buy come at a good time for Hawthorne?
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Chapter 2: How have Gold Coast's home and away performances differed in 2026?
The AFL average at the moment, or during that last six-week block, the AFL average is 87 points per game. So that correlates to them, their scoring inside 50 has dropped to 13th in the competition. So scores per inside 50, 44%. Forward 50 ground ball has decreased to now 13th in the competition. That's alongside West Coast, Essendon, Richmond, Port Adelaide and North.
And their loose ball gets, which indicates for me, spread and hunt is now 14th in the competition. So that's around Gold Coast, Richmond and North Melbourne as well. So I said they've dropped to 83 points per game for their scoring. Ironically, they're conceding 83 points per game. Yep.
So what they're scoring, they're also conceding, which ā and potentially you associate that a bit with the absence of Gunston. He's such an important player for them. So their scoring from the back half has been consistent, but their efficiency going inside ā the front third of the ground has been disappointing.
So the other part too, which not just their scoring, I'm also a bit concerned about, and Sam Mitchell would know this too, is their scores from stoppage differential, 17th in the AFL over the last six weeks. So it's been an issue all season for them. But in the last six-week block, they're at minus 21 points. So three and a half goals per game.
They're only scoring 24 points from stoppage, but they're conceding 45 points. So expect that to be a major focus for Sam Mitchell and Hawthorne this week.
So they've been a totally different team without their bookends, which I think is perfectly understandable. You've referenced the importance of Gunston there. He won't be there. Barris will be back in defence.
Yeah.
Yeah, and I think he would be so relieved to get Barass back into the side. He's just a set-and-forget, lock-away, key-position defender. So he just adds so much more flexibility to the rest of the defence. And, you know, he can mix and match between the genuine tools, and he can play on the third tool forward too.
But, I mean, Impey and Amon are having great seasons, but it just really helps Sicily in battle to have ā to have Barass return to the team. So, yeah, I think Sam Mitchell would be absolutely thrilled to get him back and just to shore up that defence in that back half. All right. What have you got as the focus for the Hawks?
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Chapter 3: What factors contribute to Gold Coast's scoring success at home?
So that's where my focus will be if I'm Sam Mitchell, is we have to pressure every Gold Coast Sun exit. And I think those guys, Rioli, Noble, Collins, Andrews, Jeffrey, I think they're the big ones. You've got to bring enormous heat, front half pressure against the Gold Coast Suns, particularly at their home ground. I think that's going to be the number one focus for Sam Mitchell this week.
And the flip side of it, where's the focus for Damien Hardwick? Well, it's interesting for this one for Hardwick because he can kill two birds with one stone here. Anderson, Rao, Miller, Petrarca, let's go. Let's ā because the clearance and contested ball numbers are not what they should be. It has been a ā something which should be in their DNA, stoppage in contest, has been disappointing.
So those four players in particular, it's massive games for those four. So I think Hardwick will be looking to take advantage of Hawke's weakness, which is contest and clearance and scores from stoppage, and get back to what should be a strength for Damien Hardwick, and that's their contest and stoppage work. it maybe is where the game's decided.
If the Suns are going to get a front half game, they've got to win clearance. They've got to find a way to be effective at home and score more. And that's going to be, I think, solely focused on around contest and clearance for the Gold Coast Suns.
All right, this has got consequence just dripping off it, this game.
So which way? Well, like you, I'd look at their last block of games. So Suns have won five of their last seven when these two teams have played. That has to mean something. But at this time of the year, it's a big concern whoever loses this game. So we know the Suns are coming off three in a row, would make it four. And the Hawks, as I said, have won two of their last six.
So if that goes to winning two of their last seven, that might have some serious consequences for later in the season too. So I don't know. I just like the Hawks only just in this one. I just think they offensively have enough firepower to match the Suns at home. But this will be a ripper game and it could be a flip of the coin, but I'm going to go for the Hawks by less than a kick. in this one.
But tune into this tomorrow night. You're a ripper. Hope it is a thriller.
All right. So that's Friday Night Footy, the setup from Brenton Sanderson's Strategy 2026. We're heading to Adelaide for the Crows and the Demons next.
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