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Chapter 1: What recent events have escalated tensions in the Strait of Hormuz?
Is the Iran war escalating or winding down? We'll get the latest as a third U.S. aircraft carrier heads to the region. Plus, the Supreme Court takes on President Trump's push to limit U.S. citizenship. And a win in Washington's critical minerals push, even if exporting cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo is likely easier said than done.
It's going to have to really turn these assets around. But if it manages to do that, could produce up to somewhere around 5% of the world's cobalt, which would be a huge boon to the U.S. critical mineral supply chain.
It's Wednesday, April 1st. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal. And here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. After sustaining Iranian attacks for weeks, the United Arab Emirates is considering becoming a combatant in the Iran war, making it the first Persian Gulf country to do so.
We're exclusively reporting that the UAE is now preparing to help the U.S. and others to open the Strait of Hormuz by force after having assessed its ability to do things like clear the waterway of mines. With more on what could be a turning point in the war and Gulf involvement in it, I'm joined by the Journal's Middle East Bureau Chief Andrew Dowell. Drew, why now?
Gulf countries have been getting hit by Iran, including the UAE, since the start of the conflict, and yet they haven't today taken the fight directly to the country. What explains this shift, apparently, in calculus from the UAE?
To this point, they've been concerned about defining themselves as a combatant because that's a posture that could outlive Trump's interest in the war and leave them at odds with a... with a big neighbor right across the Persian Gulf for an extended period.
They're looking at the situation and realizing that they are in fact a combatant, that Iran isn't just shooting at US interests in the UAE, but took aim at things like luxury hotels, iconic buildings, the airport several times in what they consider to be a deliberate attempt to sow panic and kind of undermine their economy and create pressure to end the war.
And it's not a situation they think they could live with. The other thing is that Iran's making very clear that it wants to have an extended administrative role over the Strait of Hormuz even after the war is over, which could involve charging tolls or deciding who gets to go through and doesn't get to go through, which again is just completely unacceptable to the UAE.
Their economy is largely dependent on energy, which flows through the Strait of Hormuz. They have a big shipping industry, which also relies on free access through that waterway, and they get food through there. And so they're trying to rally people support for a military solution to change things.
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Chapter 2: Why is the UAE considering military action in the Iran war now?
Trump yesterday said that he believes the war will wrap up in two to three weeks, news that sent global markets higher today and led to a pullback in oil prices. But whether a rapid end to fighting can bring oil back to its pre-war levels is another story. with analysts at Capital Economics saying that a U.S.
exit from the war in two to three weeks still aligns with forecasts of Brent crude at $80 a barrel by year's end.
While airlines aren't waiting to bake higher fuel surcharges and other fees into ticket prices in order to offset higher costs, JetBlue is charging more for bags, Air France, KLM, and Cathay Pacific are boosting fuel fees, and United's CEO has warned that fares could shoot up by as much as 20% due to war-related fuel shortages. And Iran yesterday warned a number of U.S.
companies with locations in the Middle East that their actions supporting the war make them legitimate targets. Iran's Revolutionary Guard accused the likes of Apple, Oracle, Palantir, Microsoft, Alphabet, and JPMorgan Chase of contributing to the deaths of Iranian citizens and warned employees of the companies to leave their workplaces in the region before 8 p.m. local time today.
Also named in the warning were Cisco, HP, Intel, IBM, Tesla, NVIDIA, and Boeing. Coming up, President Trump heads to the Supreme Court, literally, as justices prepare to hear oral arguments on his push to end birthright citizenship. That and the day's business news after the break.
In Washington, President Trump is turning up the pressure on the Supreme Court as it prepares to hear arguments today limiting U.S. citizenship.
The Supreme Court tomorrow is going to hear arguments about your executive order trying to get rid of birthright citizenship. And I'm going. You're going to go to the Supreme Court tomorrow? I think so.
In a break from tradition, Trump plans to attend the hearing in person as the justices review his executive order ending birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants or temporary residents. Lower courts have blocked the order, ruling that it conflicts with the 14th Amendment.
Journal Supreme Court reporter James Ramoser says the case is pushing Trump's relationship with the court to the brink.
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