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聊聊Sci

074-地球边界内的发展路径探索

26 Aug 2025

Description

这篇文章主要讨论了地球系统的“行星边界”框架,并利用综合模型评估全球环境(IMAGE)来预测未来发展路径。文章指出,人类活动已经危及地球稳定,当前趋势和政策下,到2050年,除臭氧耗竭外,所有行星边界的状况都将恶化。研究强调,有针对性的干预措施,如实施《巴黎气候协定》、向健康饮食转变、提高食物和水利用效率等,能有效减少对行星边界的逾越。然而,即使采取这些措施,气候变化、生物地球化学循环和生物多样性等边界到2050年仍可能被突破,这表明需要更有效的政策来实现地球系统内的可持续生活。References: van Vuuren D P, Doelman J C, Schmidt Tagomori I, et al. Exploring pathways for world development within planetary boundaries[J]. Nature, 2025: 1-7.

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