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量化好声音

05 水晶球实验揭秘:为什么量化交易比主观投资更能控制风险

08 Jul 2025

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想象一下,如果你能提前24小时知道明天的财经新闻,你会成为投资之神吗?维克托·哈加尼的"水晶球实验"给出了令人震惊的答案:100多个受过金融训练的年轻人,即使拥有"预知未来"的优势,仍有一半人赔钱,六分之一直接爆仓!这个残酷的现实揭示了主观投资的致命缺陷。更令人深思的是,量化交易看似能解决这个问题,但为何又有"回测买地球,实盘亏成狗"的魔咒?当Aaron分享自己两次"乌龙指"的惨痛经历时,我们发现人性的弱点如何在关键时刻背叛理性。而Jane Street这样的量化巨头,竟然因为资金容量限制而被迫冒险操纵市场,这背后隐藏着怎样的行业困境?小资金投资者是否真的拥有意想不到的优势?

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