本期播客揭示了量化研究中的两大戏剧性冲突。首先是工具之困:当Aaron尝试用Alphalens验证UBL因子时遭遇挫折,因为这个行业标准工具无法处理月度因子数据。面对这一障碍,他开发了Moonshot库,专门解决月度因子回测问题。更引人深思的是认知之困:复现结果显示威廉下影线因子与传统经验相悖——下影线均值越小,后市上涨概率反而越高。这一反直觉发现挑战了"长下影线代表买气强"的传统观点,揭示了主观记忆与统计规律之间的鸿沟。UBL因子不仅成功复现了研报结论,实际表现甚至超越原研报。这背后隐藏着量化研究的深层思考:我们的交易直觉可能只记住了少数印象深刻的案例,而忽略了大量平凡却统计显著的数据点。这期播客不仅展示了从理论到实践的完整链条,更揭示了量化投资的核心魅力:用数据和逻辑验证直觉,发现隐藏在市场噪音中的真正规律。
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