17《跟着亿万学金融》第二期：「做多」转「做空」，Axe 如何识破收购骗局？

本期《跟着亿万学金融》聚焦《亿万》第一季第一集短短 2 分钟的关键剧情，拆解一场从 “做多” 到 “做空” 的惊人反转。基金经理 Danzig 发现电阳 41 美元收购鲁姆瑟姆的消息，股价仅 35 美元，预判两周内涨 17%，计划买入 200 万股成为主力资金做多。然而，当 “Axe 听到斯科特・卡兹维兹将任新董事长” 这一信息后，局势骤变。Axe 凭借对卡兹维兹的了解 —— 其控股电阳、暗持鲁姆瑟姆 19.3% 股份，结合周四午餐时间美林证券的隐秘大宗交易，识破收购实为 “诱多出货” 的骗局：卡兹维兹正借收购消息掩护，通过大宗交易悄悄撤离。最终，Axe 果断转向做空，精准预判股价跌至 32 美元，狂赚 1800 万。我们将深入解析 “大宗交易” 等金融概念，拆解 Axe 从信息碎片中看透本质的推理逻辑，揭示金融市场中 “表象利好” 与 “资本真相” 的博弈。跟着剧情学分析，你也能 get 大佬级市场洞察力！【在这里找到我们】公众号：Quantide 量化风云小红书：Quantide哔哩哔哩：Quantidewechat:quantfan_100【视频台词】波比 有个好机会 我们准备下手Bobby, we are ready to roll on something sweet.我想你一定有兴趣参一脚I think you‘ll want to piggyback.什么情况What do you got?鲁姆瑟姆能源被电阳收购Lumetherm Power getting bought by Electric Sun.价格为41美元 股票交易价格为35美元Price is $41. Stock’s trading at $35.我们预期交易完成后的两周内We‘re looking at a 17% bump股价将上涨17%in two weeks when the deal closes.按年计算 就是442美元Annualized, that‘s $442...据我估算I‘d love to size up.买两百万股就能成为主力资金Maybe you buy 2 million shares for the main fund.- 听起来没什么问题 -很好- Sounds about right. - Great.盛传斯科特·卡兹维兹是新任董事长Scott Kazawitz‘s name is being floated as the new chairman.卡兹维兹Kazawitz.这是新信息That‘s a new piece of information.你花钱聘我不就是为这个Well, that‘s what you pay me for.谁说这次交易快结束了Who said this deal is gonna close?本今天早上说的Ben said it would this morning.我吗 大家都这么说Me? Everyone‘s saying it.这谁Who is this?我新请的分析师My new analyst.我们会雇用你 你一定是个天才Well, if we hired you, you must be a genius.耶鲁毕业Yale?斯坦福 然后去了沃顿商学院Stanford. Then Wharton.好 斯坦福-沃顿高材生Okay, Stanford-Wharton.卡兹维兹控股电阳Electric Sun is controlled by Kazawitz.他也持有19.3%的鲁姆瑟姆股份He also owns 19.3% of Lumetherm因为他和南方风能利害攸关才偷偷拿到的backdoored through his stake in Southern Wind.你知道上周四美林的那笔大宗交易吗You see that block trade last Thursday come out of Merrill?美国证券公司知道 那是富塞视Yeah. That was Fortress想在并购前把资金短缺的部分套现cashing out their shorts before the merger.不是吗Wasn‘t it?交易是在12:52进行的 那是午餐时间Trade was at 12:52, when everyone was at lunch,也就意味着他们不想被他人知道which tells me they wanted it to be missed.可你们注意到了 有点本事You guys caught it, which is something, I guess.但你们看待这个事情的方向不对But you‘re looking at it backward.电阳出的价是为了暂时支持鲁姆瑟姆Electric Sun‘s offer was just a ploy而耍的花招to temporarily prop up Lumetherm.典型的科兹维兹式背弃输家手段 他很无情Typical Kazawitz play to bail on a loser. He‘s an animal.那笔大宗交易让科兹维兹摆脱南方风能The block trade was Kazawitz getting out of Southern Wind,摆脱鲁姆瑟姆getting out of Lumetherm.他操控全局 现已置身事外He rode the story, now he‘s out,这意味着你得出来which means you need to be out.实际上 要卖空In fact, short.股价将跌至32美元 谈判破裂后还会变It‘ll slide to $32 and change after word breaks.这一手真漂亮 阿克斯That‘s a good catch, Axe.我的胆固醇够高了My cholesterol‘s high enough.别说这些腻歪我 丹泽 学聪明点Don‘t butter my ass, Danzig. Just get smarter.你对手头上的信息解读得不错Your read was good with the information you had.你还是新人 会明白的You‘re new. You‘ll figure it out.否则就给我走人Or you‘ll be gone.老天爷啊Jesus Christ.对啊 他念的是霍夫斯特拉大学

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