Alan Lichtman

Ah, here's the thing. The keys are based on history. And if people don't vote, you're going to break the pattern of history.

You must vote. I don't care who you vote for, but you must vote.

Kamala Harris will become the first woman president.

You live in a total world of denial. You've got it wrong. You were preposterously and stupidly wrong.

Well?

I was being honest with you.

You weren't, Alan. It was a prediction, not a fact. And I told you, I'm a human being, right?

I certainly didn't mean to hurt anyone. I'm not psychic. My predictions are based on history. And this year, which you know is the craziest year ever, the pattern of history was broken. That can happen.

I actually did, and it looks great.

I definitely think I was thrown off by pushing Biden out. We've never seen a sitting president, the elected nominee, forced out. So that leads me to perhaps reevaluate my call on the contest key.

The broader point is, I do think Harris's race and gender played a role here. There are deep strains within this country of misogyny, racism, xenophobia.

Talked to who?

Maybe I'm not hearing you right.

Charlie XCS. I don't know who that is.

Oh, OK.

We have not spoken.

This is one prediction in over 40 years. I was listed as number 85 of the world's 100 leading geopolitical experts. But people think, oh, he made a wrong prediction. That invalidates him as a person. It's crazy.

I'd like to say one more thing.

Yeah. We shouldn't just write off an error. We can learn a lot about our politics and our society from analyzing the mistake.

If you can't learn from your mistakes, then you're in big trouble.

I hope so.

The great Benjamin Disraeli, the former late prime minister of England once said, finality is not a word we use in politics.

What's that?

Every time you say that, I kind of go, what? It's not a name that rings any bells with me.

Woman, man, camera, TV.

I don't pay attention to the polls. They're snapshots, not predictors. My system, the 13 keys to the White House, examines the fundamental forces that drive presidential elections.

Using pattern recognition, every election from 1860 to 1980. Why not 14? Could have been any number.

I love all those numbers, but the big message is it's governing, not campaigning that counts, that the electorate as a whole ask whether the administration has done a good enough job for four more years or they want to make a change.

The keys indicate that Kamala Harris will become the first woman president of the U.S.

People say I got Florida wrong because I was calling Gore, and in fact, Bush ultimately won. I say I was correct because Florida way disproportionately rejected ballots cast by African Americans.

Yes.