Alastair Campbell

How might the US respond?

One of the things that makes you very different from many other commentators is that you read Chinese.

And in fact, one of the things that was striking in your Cold War book is you read Russian too.

So you're able to...

hear both sides of the conversation going on at the same time.

What do you think you have picked up over the years by being able to read Chinese, read Chinese newspapers, read Chinese books of Chinese perspectives, which maybe some people in the West are missing?

One of the things that I think is surprising compared to the Cold War period is how often we're not really looking at two big powers against each other, but smaller powers spiking things off.

So maybe the most dramatic example is Israel.

which has, over the last two and a half years, launched these huge conflicts in Gaza, attacks on Lebanon, attacks on Syria, and now attacks on Iran.

But you could also have a similar story around UAE, where there was this standoff with Saudi and Yemen, and now UAE involvement in the war in Sudan.

You could find some examples in Asia, where things are spinning back and forth across borders.

We're

particularly in the Middle East at the moment, are behaving more like rogue states.

They seem to feel that they don't have to ask for permission from the great superpowers before doing things.

One of the things that strikes me is that it's not just the rise of China, but the collapse of Europe and the West, which is part of this story.

Take the story back, not very long, in 2003.

The Chinese economy is still the seventh largest economy in the world.

It's smaller than the Italian economy.

And when Alistair was in office, Britain, France, Germany were, in relative terms, much, much more substantial powers.

Their economic weight was bigger than that of China.